Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Ozempic vs. marijuana munchies

Which drug will win out?
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Hi, it's John in New York. While Wall Street is still trying to figure out how widespread use of weight-loss drugs will affect the economy, another drug is shaping shopping behavior. More on that shortly, but first ...

Today's must-reads

  • The Federal Trade Commission said CVS, Cigna and UnitedHealth abused their drug middlemen roles. 
  • California hospitals will upgrade to AI imaging systems from GE HealthCare. 
  • Eli Lilly isn't selling as many weight-loss drugs as they expected. 

Smoke and mirrors

The surging adoption of appetite-suppressing weight-loss drugs has spooked the US food industry. Wall Street analysts warn that the drugs could hit junk-food makers, and food companies are pushing lower-calorie products in response. 

But there's a countervailing force that might lift purveyors of pizza, soda and Doritos: the munchies.

US states have loosened rules around recreational marijuana, and pot shops are dotting the landscape of more and more communities. As a country we're still trying to sort out the consequences of marijuana legalization. But there's evidence for one intuitive effect: Junk food purchases go up in states that have legalized marijuana, according to a recent working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Twenty-four states have legalized non-medical pot use. By measuring changes in different variables from shopping data and time-use surveys that followed legalization, the researchers estimated potential effects from the policies. They aimed to better understand how more widespread access to legal pot could affect population health.

It turns out the changes made a difference: People bought more junk food – especially snacks, cookies and candy – after states legalized recreational marijuana, the economists behind the paper found.

The researchers used data from the NielsenIQ Consumer Panel Survey, which tracks grocery purchases. After states permitted recreational weed, grocery spending on junk food went up by almost 9%, according to the paper.

The authors looked at other evidence for "couch lock" – the tendency for people to get stoned and stay home on the couch, rather than exercise or venture out. Looking at time-use data, they found that legalizing pot was linked to less physical activity and fewer trips out to restaurants and shops. People spent less time at work, less time outside, less time exercising, and more time at home.

While some of the study period overlapped with the Covid pandemic, authors found increased junk food purchases even when they looked at data only before 2020.

No one study is definitive, and it's hard to say for sure that the changes identified by the researchers are caused by marijuana legalization. Of course, many Americans used the drug before states began making it legal. About 15% of US adults smoked pot in a recent survey from Gallup. 

That's not far off from the roughly 12% of Americans who have tried the new class of diabetes and weight-loss drugs that includes Ozempic and Wegovy. Those prescription drugs help people shed pounds, with growing evidence that they come with other health benefits as well.

Forecasters have predicted the possible peak of obesity rates, which could reshape the US economy.

Whether that comes to pass may depend on whether more Americans see their future in a Wegovy injection or a cloud of pot smoke. — John Tozzi

What we're reading 

Too many people are taking low-dose aspirin, the Washington Post warns

Norovirus infections in the US are twice as high as they were at last year's peak, CBS News reports

"Make America Healthy Again" suggests that the nation once was in great shape. The New York Times begs to differ

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