| Hi, this is Philip Glamann in Beijing, where everyone is looking forward to the long Lunar New Year holiday. Well, that and what happens between China and the US during the second go-round of President Donald Trump. An optimist (there must be some out there) might be cautiously hopeful that the relative peace this week augurs well for the next four years. Trump held off on blasting China with tariffs right away. Read our story about Beijing avoiding early levies here. Instead, he ordered a broad probe into the trade practices of nations including China that is due April 1. This move could signal a desire to head to the negotiating table and cut a deal like the one reached with Beijing in his first term. Trump did say he was still open to tariffs of 10% on Chinese products to punish Beijing for, in his view, failing to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. Yet that's a far cry from the broad 60% level he pledged to slap on shipments from the country on the campaign trail. On top of that, fentanyl was one area where the Biden administration had some success talking to Beijing, so maybe China and Trump could come to terms on the issue. Trump also held off on the TikTok ban, giving the video-sharing platform 75 days to find a buyer or go dark for good. He later suggested billionaire backer Elon Musk or Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison buy the app in a JV with Uncle Sam. And one last positive: The new US leader has apparently also hinted he's interested in visiting China early in his second term, which if true would suggest he's going to avoid openly antagonizing Beijing before making a journey. That's all well and good but on the flip side … A more skeptical person (*coughs*) can be forgiven for seeing some fundamental reasons things will go haywire eventually. Top of the list? China's trade surplus soared to record of nearly $1 trillion just before Trump took office. Given the priority he places on evening out commerce, that may be all the reason anyone needs to think that eventually push will come to shove. Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said in Davos, Switzerland, that his nation doesn't want a surplus but rather "to import more competitive, quality products and services to promote balanced trade." Read our story about Ding's Davos trip here. The vice premier thought to be close to President Xi Jinping didn't go into details. But if he means things like semiconductors and other high-tech goods, it's pretty unlikely the US will play ball considering it sees keeping an edge there as a national security necessity. Additionally, China's skittish consumers are holding back any economic recovery because wage gains are sluggish and the job market gloomy. It's fair to say they're not exactly itching to snap up some of those imports Ding welcomes. Then there's the fact that the Trump Cabinet is replete with China hawks. Take Marco Rubio, the new secretary of state, who's made clear over his career he's no fan of Beijing's policies. The feeling is mutual in China, which back in 2020 hit him with sanctions. Chinese state media once even called him a "political weirdo." China has indicated it's open to dealing with Rubio but the idea of him visiting Beijing and warmly shaking hands with officials like his predecessor, Antony Blinken, does seem, well, fairly far-fetched right now.  Marco Rubio, the US new secretary of state. Photographer: Oliver Contreras/Sipa Rubio likely gave a preview of new US foreign policy toward China on his first day on the job, when he met counterparts in the Quad. Beijing strongly dislikes the idea of the diplomatic grouping that includes India, Japan and Australia, seeing it as a tool to limit its rise. Rubio later described US defense commitments to the Philippines as "ironclad," and criticized Beijing's "dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea." Neither comment does much to endear the former senator to Beijing. Most people in China will be kicking off the holiday soon, hoping for a bit of relaxation as they reunite with family. We'll see just how the peace lasts. Editor's note: The Next China newsletter won't publish next week because of the holiday. It returns on Feb. 7. What We're Reading, Listening to and Watching: China's cinephiles had a good 2024 because they got to see more movies from the rest of world. The flow of Hollywood flicks into the country had slowed to a trickle in recent years, a casualty of the trade war but also because people were content watching domestically made movies telling relatable stories. Yet last year more US films and hits from India (Maharaja) and Japan (The Boy and the Heron) returned to the world's No. 2 market. In a rarity, censors even let the R-rated Joker: Folie à Deux screen. (Like film fans elsewhere, people in China were a bit thrown by the dark musical/thriller.)  A Xenomorph runs amok at a Shanghai screening of Alien: Romulus. Photographer: CFOTO/CFOTO The blockbuster spree stood out in a market that saw overall box office receipts slump to a decade low, excluding the pandemic. Read our story about that here. The Chinese government is deeply conflicted about allowing in foreign cultural influences but it gave the nod to 93 new imports last year, the most since 2019. Why the plot twist? To try to spur anemic consumer spending. Getting people into theaters is a decent idea given most Chinese cinemas are in shopping malls, home to all those luxury brand stores, phone and EV outlets, and restaurants. Officials also seem keen for people to watch movies over the holidays. They rolled out subsidies worth the equivalent of some $82 million for ticket purchases from December to February. Some local governments are handing out similar vouchers. One of China's biggest holidays, Lunar New Year, is just days away. Afterward, data on movie tickets sold, trips made and tourism spending will be studied to try to get a sense of how the consumer is feeling. That's important because while exports have soared, the consumer sector has yet to pitch in enough to help the economic recovery. Whether China's film fans will continue to enjoy the variety of offerings is an open question. If things go south between Trump and Xi, it's easy to see China cutting off the flow of US films again. A spat with Japan or India could do the same. Still, a top ticketing website shows that Chinese moviegoers are looking forward to several film imports this 2025. Those include – get this – Captain America: Brave New World. | 
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