Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Next Africa: Hard lessons

ArcelorMittal's plant closures may cost 3,500 workers their jobs
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Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

South Africa's government of national unity is finding that it needs to implement its pledges to spur economic growth and woo investors with greater urgency.

ArcelorMittal is finally closing a steelmaking operation in Newcastle in the eastern KwaZulu-Natal province that opened in the 1970s after putting plans to shut it on hold for almost a year.

The company backed by billionaire Lakshmi Mittal also intends shuttering a plant in the central industrial town of Vereeniging that's run for more than a century.

A furnace at ArcelorMittal's factory in Vereeniging. Photographer: Gianluigi Guercia/AFP/Getty Images

In a July interview with Bloomberg at South Africa's biggest steel mill, the head of the global steelmaking giant's local unit cited the optimism that followed May elections and the establishment of a pro-business coalition government as factors in putting the planned closures on hold.

The about-turn will dismantle another brick of the economy that the protectionist apartheid state built as it walled itself off from the world and provided tens of thousands of jobs for low-skilled White workers with little regard to cost.

It will also deprive the country of a key source of construction steel at a time when President Cyril Ramaphosa's administration is pushing for a step change in infrastructure investment. Some 3,500 jobs may go in a nation where the unemployment rate tops 30%; many more at suppliers and customers are at risk. 

The fact that South Africa remains a tough place to run a business lies at the heart of ArcelorMittal's decision. While the incessant power cuts of recent years have ended, transport costs (largely due to a dysfunctional rail service) are high and electricity prices are surging. 

Cheap imports from China are flooding into the country and a tax on scrap-metal exports keeps the price of raw material used by ArcelorMittal's smaller rivals artificially low. 

South Africa ability to attract a significant influx of new investments and retain its existing manufacturing capacity will hinge on it translating its talk about lowering the cost of doing business into genuine reforms. — Antony Sguazzin

Key stories and opinion:
ArcelorMittal to Close South Africa Site With 3,500 Jobs at Risk 
Infrastructure Reform Key to Lift South African Growth, BER Says 
South African Economy Contracts After Slump in Farm Output 
Iron Ore to Cap Worst Annual Drop Since 2015 on China's Slowdown
South Africa Coalition Means Business for Rand: Matthew Winkler

News Roundup

Mozambican opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, who has directed waves of protests since disputed October elections that have left scores of people dead, plans to return home from self-imposed exile, potentially exacerbating tensions in the southeast African nation. The official runner-up in the presidential vote said he will fly to the capital, Maputo, on Thursday. The demonstrations probably caused the economy to contract in the final quarter of 2024 and will likely do so in the current three-month period as well, according to Standard Bank. 

WATCH: Bloomberg reporter Matthew Hill explains why protests have rocked Mozambique. 

Kenya Airways shares resumed trading after an almost five-year suspension spurred by a prolonged restructuring process to revive the national carrier and plug a drain on state resources. The stock jumped after the markets regulator approved the end of the trading freeze. Meanwhile, Kenya's economic growth decelerated to the slowest pace in almost four years in the third quarter, with output curtailed by anti-government protests. 

John Mahama was inaugurated as Ghana's president on Tuesday, returning to the office he held eight years ago following his commanding victory in December elections. Mahama, 66, trounced the ruling-party's candidate amid voter anger over economic hardship exacerbated by Ghana's 2022 sovereign-debt default. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, a former education minister, was also inaugurated  as the new vice president, in Accra, the capital, making her the first woman to hold the office.

John Mahama. Photographer: Ernest Ankomah/Bloomberg

Key data on the Nigerian economy remains inaccessible almost three weeks after the national statistics agency shut down its website after it had been hacked. The  agency has warned against using any information posted on the site until it is fully restored. The agency delayed online publication of a report on capital flows into Nigeria in the third quarter of 2024, as well as an update on outstanding local and foreign debt for the same period. 

Ackerley Sports Group will pursue a new deal for the commercial rights to the world champion Springboks rugby team after an initial bid failed. The Seattle-based firm said it will work with a professional adviser and engage with any approved South African group to revive the deal. The team is at risk of financial collapse unless it bolsters its revenue by emulating rivals such as New Zealand's All Blacks, which has concluded a private equity deal, according to SA Rugby President Mark Alexander. 

Eben Etzebeth and Jesse Kriel of the Springboks celebrate victory at the 2023 Rugby World Cup final match in Paris. Photographer: Hannah Peters/Getty Images

Namibia, one of the world's largest uranium producers, is seeking investment from China in nuclear power to boost its role in the global push toward cleaner energy. President Nangolo Mbumba met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is on a week-long visit to Africa. Yi's trip is indicative of China's resolve to increase its sway on the continent by offering better trade terms and more investment. Separately, China's Zijin Mining said it aims to start producing lithium in the Democratic Republic of Congo from one of the world's largest deposits of the battery metal early next year.

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz and congratulations to Alf Hoernle who was first to identify Ghana as the African nation that lost an international tax arbitration case filed by Tullow Oil.

Chart of the Week

War-stricken Sudan lifted a force majeure on crude exports from South Sudan, signaling a resumption of shipments through a damaged pipeline. The stoppage was declared in March after the pipeline ruptured due to lack of diesel to thin out crude, choking a key export that accounts for more than 90% of landlocked South Sudan's revenue. The two governments and operator Bashayer Pipeline have taken the necessary measures to ensure oil flows can resume and requisite security is in place, according to Sudan's energy ministry.

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in your inbox with the next edition on Friday. Send any feedback to mcohen21@bloomberg.net

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