Friday, January 3, 2025

Next Africa: Counting losses

Fears that election violence isn't over
View in browser
Bloomberg

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

Mozambique is cleaning up after the biggest protests in decades shook the southeast African nation following its disputed Oct. 9 elections. There are fears the violence is not over yet as the death toll approaches 300.

Rioters have closed mines, interrupted port operations, and curtailed energy supplies to neighboring countries. Scores of police stations went up in flames, along with offices of the ruling party that's facing one of its biggest challenges in 49 years of power.

Protesters gather next to a burning barricade in Maputo on Dec. 23. Photographer: Amilton Neves/AFP/Getty Images

Venâncio Mondlane, the fiery opposition leader orchestrating the demonstrations, rejected the outcome of the elections as fraudulent. And when Mozambique's top electoral court on Dec. 23 confirmed a landslide victory for Daniel Chapo, the situation spiraled out of control — including a prison break involving more than 1,500 escapees.

This week, an uneasy calm has returned to the streets of the capital, Maputo. Business owners are counting their losses from looted shops, factories and warehouses.

Whether the peace holds almost completely depends on Mondlane.

He has directed the protests via livestream to millions of viewers from an undisclosed location since fleeing Mozambique in October. The evangelical pastor and former lawmaker has warned of a renewed, intensified wave of demonstrations before the Jan. 15 presidential inauguration, though he's already postponed the announcement twice.

There are still hopes that the disputing sides can cool the tensions. A regional bloc known as the Southern African Development Community has offered to help facilitate a peaceful resolution.

Mondlane says he's open to international mediation. Chapo says he will only start talks after he is sworn in, and outgoing president Filipe Nyusi hasn't displayed a sense of urgency in negotiating a truce with the main instigator of the protests.

Until meaningful discussions to find a solution begin, Mozambicans — and investors in the country — face an uncertain future. — Matthew Hill

Key stories and opinion:  
Mozambique Is Gripped by Worst Turmoil Since 1990s: QuickTake
Southern Africa's Leaders Have Failed Mozambique: Justice Malala
Mozambique Braces for Renewed Protests as Death Toll Climbs
Mozambique Descends Into Chaos as Crisis Over Vote Escalates

News Roundup

China's State Power Investment Corp. will start building its alumina-processing plant in Guinea this year after producing bauxite in the West African country for the past three years. It will complete the refinery with capacity to produce 1.2 million tons annually by the end of 2027, the presidency said.

A bauxite treatment plant operated by Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée in Kamsar, Guinea. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

Ethiopia and Somalia agreed Thursday to work together on a multinational force battling Islamist insurgents, signaling a further reduction of diplomatic tensions between the neighboring countries. Under a previous accord, Ethiopia stationed 3,000 soldiers in Somalia as part of the African Union peacekeeping mission. In addition, as many as 7,000 Ethiopian troops were deployed in the Horn of Africa nation under a separate bilateral agreement.

The UK rejected a report that a deal struck with Mauritius to cede sovereignty of the Chagos islands in the Indian Ocean to the African nation while retaining control of a key military base could cost Britain £800 million ($992 million) or more per year.

Nigerian telecommunication companies are lobbying their regulator for permission to double price tariffs to weather harsh economic conditions and inflation running close to a three-decade high, MTN Nigeria Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola said. The industry has stepped up efforts for permission to relax pricing rules that haven't changed in 11 years amid surging inflation and a depreciating currency.

A shuttered MTN kiosk in Abuja, Nigeria. Photographer: KC Nwakalor/Bloomberg

Ivory Coast's president announced the withdrawal of French troops from the country, joining a growing number of francophone states that have asked the former colonial power to relinquish its military presence in West Africa. A surge in anti-French sentiment across the region helped bring Senegalese opposition leader Bassirou Diomaye Faye to power last year, and has been tapped by military juntas that seized control of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger since 2021.

The junta in Gabon, the world's second-most forested nation, has taken full control of the nation's timber company, giving it direct access to a $620 million industry. The government has so far strictly controlled logging and banned exports in 2010, and the decree brings 600,000 hectares (1.5 million acres) of forest under the junta's control.

Workers at a timber-processing plant in Mayumba, Gabon. Photographer: Guillem Sartorio/Bloomberg

Next Africa Quiz — Tullow Oil gained after an international body found it wasn't liable for a $320 million tax assessment in which African nation? Send your answers to mcohen21@bloomberg.net.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Ghana's benchmark stock index, Africa's best performer last year, is set to extend gains in 2025 as investors bet incoming President John Mahama government will restore economic stability.
  • For the first time since 2016, South Africa's rand finds itself among the five best-performing emerging-market currencies of the year — and there may be more to come, according to analysts at Credit Agricole and Ashmore Group.
  • Kenya's annual inflation rate climbed for a second successive month in December as higher food and transport costs offset the effects of the shilling's world-beating performance last year.

Coming Up
Jan. 6
December PMI reports for Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda  and Zambia; Uganda's third-quarter current-account balance and November money-supply data
Jan. 7 Mauritius reserves data for December; the government of incoming President John Mahama takes over in Ghana
Jan. 8 Tanzania interest-rate decision; Ghana consumer-inflation data for December; South Africa reserves data for December; manufacturing PMI for December
Jan. 9 Mauritius, Namibia consumer-inflation data for December; South Africa manufacturing data for November, vehicle sales for December 
Jan. 10 Rwanda consumer-inflation data for December

Quote of the Week

"Musk now has the ear of the most powerful office in the world, the US president. The transactional value behind that — any kind of quid pro quo — becomes much more attractive."
Alex Capri
Senior lecturer at the National University of Singapore Business School
Capri commented as Musk, born in South Africa, and President Cyril Ramaphosa have been in contact to discuss ways for the government change the rules to allow Starlink's high-speed Internet to operate legally in the country, according to people familiar with their communication. In return, Musk's companies would invest in areas such as battery production for Tesla.

Last Word

In Port Sudan, musicians played drums and tanbours long into the night as a bride and groom celebrated their wedding — while trying to forget a conflict that's ravaged their country. With Sudan's economy devastated and no functioning government, festive wedding scenes like these underscore the determination of Sudanese people to try to stick to the rhythms of a more normal way of life. Across the North African nation that's rich in gold, a starving, weary population has been forgotten as a war that broke out in April 2023 continues to rage. 

A wedding party in Port Sudan on Oct. 29. Photographer: Eduardo Soteras Jalil/Bloomberg
Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Next Africa newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices

No comments:

Post a Comment

Look, this isn’t for everyone

It’s alright, success isn’t for everyone. To view this email as a web page, go  here. To view this email as a web page, go  here.       ...