Monday, January 13, 2025

Leave it to TikTokers to turn protesting into a meme

Americans flock to RedNote to spite the authorities.
Bloomberg

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Today's Agenda

TikTok Refugees

Uhh, well, I can't imagine US government officials saw this one coming: In the lead-up to the TikTok ban — which looks highly likely to happen on Jan. 19 — Americans are flocking to a different Chinese social networking app, RedNote, as a way to spite the authorities. It's now the top free download on the US App Store.

The migration to China's Xiaohongshu, which literally translates to "little red book" in English, is part of a larger cultural backlash to the US crusade against ByteDance. Petty TikTokers are jokingly parting ways with the Chinese spy that perfected their algorithm, learning Mandarin, packing their bags and moving to China. [1]

On RedNote, users are welcoming Americans to the app, calling them "TikTok refugees" and asking them for help on their English homework.

Will any of this stop the TikTok ban? Doubtful, considering how cavalier and unserious the discourse is getting around data security/privacy. But the Bloomberg editorial board is still holding out hope for a sale.

As soon as Trump is inaugurated, the editors say he should "take this opportunity to do what he claims to do best: negotiate. If TikTok is, as it claims, a purely commercial enterprise, he should try to persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to allow a sale. Investors would profit — less perhaps if Chinese officials blocked the transfer of its vaunted algorithm, but still handsomely. And it's not impossible to imagine a deal that includes the algorithm, too, either through a licensing agreement or by creating a US clone, which the company may already be working on."

In addition to saving the app, they say a last-minute deal would help "lower the temperature" on the trade war and "remind both leaders that it shouldn't be impossible to work together." It would also pause the pilgrimage to RedNote, which I'm guessing would come as a relief to all parties involved.

Cabinet Picks

The Trump transition is in full swing, with more than a dozen of the president-elect's cabinet picks slated to have Senate confirmation hearings this week. In a new free readNia-Malika Henderson says the stakes are high given how vastly unqualified the incoming administration is on paper.

Although Republicans can only afford to lose three votes if all the Democrats oppose a nominee, Nia predicts "Trump will get his way, with Republicans wary of crossing him and his base." But the Democrats doing the vetting "can make the fight an ugly one" by inquiring about tough subjects — allegations of Pete Hegseth's sexual assault and public intoxication, for instance — and creating viral moments.

Still, that task might be easier said than done. Matthew Yglesias says Trump and his fellow GOP-ers share a penchant for avoiding the hard questions.

Consider the party's budget legislation strategy. Republicans are still debating whether to have one or two bills. "There is an important conceptual question — do tax cuts need to be offset with spending reductions? — that cannot be waved away," he writes. Beyond that, the public remains in the dark about what policies — immigration, defense or energy — Republicans actually want to enact.

Mary Ellen Klas looks to the Sunshine State for clues: "Florida is the breeding ground for the kind of government Trump envisions for his second term: A souped-up executive branch that has contempt for institutions; a talent for exploiting the resentment of working-class voters; a desire to give favorable treatment to donors; and an urge to aggressively use state power to attack dissenters."

It's no coincidence that many members of Trump's inner circle hail from there: "Florida has become the epicenter of Trump's brain trust. His chief of staff and his nominees for secretary of state, attorney general and national security advisor are all Floridians, as are several key public health officials. They've seen this movie before." Under Trump's guidance, she fears they will push to undermine the country's education, free speech and public health systems.

Bonus America First Reading:

  • Trump's focus on Canada, Greenland and Panama looks a lot like Putinism. — Marc Champion
  • If Trump ignores most of the world, bad things will eventually hit him at home. — Hal Brands

As Bad as It Gets

Firefighters in California can't catch a break:

This morning, weather authorities issued yet another red flag warning to residents in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. The region faces extremely dangerous conditions — 45 to 70 mile-an-hour Santa Ana winds — from Tuesday morning until noon on Wednesday. To give you an idea of how bad that is, Todd Hall, a meteorologist at the Weather Service, told the New York Times that these PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) alerts were intended to be used "once every three to five years." His team has sent two of them in the last week alone.

When the fires do eventually die down, cleanup won't be easy, writes Liam Denning. "The state's relatively nascent effort to insure its utilities against enormous losses from wildfires" poses "a big problem for California's grid, economy and green aspirations."

As if downed powerlines and destroyed homes weren't damaging enough, David Fickling says the flames sweeping through the Los Angeles area will continue to cut lives short long after they're put out. Every year, nearly 100,000 people around the world die from inhaling pollution released by such disasters. These particulates, he says, "can make it into the bloodstream — and from there, almost every tissue in the human body."

Telltale Charts

The list of troubles ailing the UK is long. Chris Hughes says its investment-trust industry is sleepy. Martin Ivens points to a prime minister who can't handle Elon Musk. The chancellor is distracted by China. There's bond market turmoil. And, to make things even worse, there's an incoming broccoli shortage. But no trouble holds a candle to Britain's NHS. In the years since Covid-19, Matthew Brooker says the country's taxpayer-funded health service is "struggling with near-record waiting lists and all-time low satisfaction ratings." If Labour fails to make progress, he warns the party's fortunes may reverse.

Hmmm: Private equity is lobbying Trump for access to your 401(k) account. Alarm bells are ringing for Allison Schrager, who says it's an awful idea with little upside. Under no circumstances should workers "invest their scarce retirement funds in such an opaque and lightly regulated asset class," she writes. "The timing is also terrible. Private funds thrived in a low-interest-rate environment where leverage was cheap and many institutional investors were chasing yield. Those days are over, and the industry may be more likely to shrink than to grow."

Further Reading

Don't bank on your banking job outlasting the rise of artificial intelligence. — Aaron Brown

Surging bond yields make a strong case for a new bipartisan fiscal commission. — Clive Crook

The unapologetic emergence of the ultra-wealthy to wield government power. — Max Hastings

How Delta cracked the code for post-pandemic profits in the airline industry. — Thomas Black

Indonesia is the latest country in danger of being tagged with the Japanification label. — Daniel Moss

America's reliance on Saudi Arabia's oil reserves is nearing its endgame. — Javier Blas

Not everything is accounting fraud, but some surprising things are. — Matt Levine

ICYMI

Progress on Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks.

A massive church rally in the Philippines.

The Sonos CEO quit after a customer revolt.

Lessons from the homes that survived the LA fires.

Kickers

White tablecloths are back.

An illustrator dies, his son steps up.

Getting a new phone number is a nightmare.

Notes: Please send starched linens and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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[1] The irony there, of course, is that TikTok is banned in China.

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