Wednesday, January 22, 2025

It’s raining pardons

Does Ross Ulbricht really deserve a "get out jail free" card?
Bloomberg

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Today's Agenda

Crypto Corruption

Listen, nobody's denying that former President Joe Biden was handing out pardons like candy at the end of his term:

It wasn't a good look for him! But granting clemency to a bunch of blood relatives and public officials feels sliiiightly different from granting clemency to the 1,600 people who were found guilty of storming the US Capitol on Jan. 6. "These acts are not equivalent," says the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. "Trump is pardoning hundreds of violent rioters because they supported him politically. Biden's family pardons are surely self-serving, but his clemency for public servants — in light of the prosecutions that Trump and his associates have threatened — is at least plausibly defensible." Still, the editors say we've strayed a long way from the days of Alexander Hamilton, when pardons were used to "enshrine the virtue of mercy in the Constitution."

Just yesterday, Trump issued a full pardon [1] to Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, a dark-web marketplace that, while in operation from 2011-2013, allowed users to anonymously buy and sell illicit substances and services (think: heroin, pirated videos, fake driver's licenses, etc.) with crypto. All told, the Department of Justice says the site helped shepherd around $200 million worth of illegal commerce. [2]  In 2013, Ulbricht got a double-life sentence for crimes related to drug trafficking, computer hacking and money laundering. So: Why did Trump free the guy a decade later?

As Bloomberg News' Emily Nicolle explains, "Pardoning Ulbricht was an easy opportunity for Trump to curry favor with the crypto industry and libertarian voters. Crypto advocates, including some of Bitcoin's original developers, have long championed a campaign to free Ulbricht." The pardon arrives at an awfully convenient time, considering all the flack that Trump has gotten for flogging his namesake meme coin — a billion-dollar boondoggle, by all accounts — in the eleventh hour before his inaugural address.

Naturally, there's already chatter about an ETF "that will go all-in" on the Trump token. Matt Levine is miffed by the whole thing: "I just … Trumpcoin? He owns 80% of it? It's super volatile? It sort of trades on his whims? I am at a loss."

Lionel Laurent, too, sees trouble ahead: "Trump's latest squeeze of the crypto lemon could be the moment the entire market looks as frothy as it did in 2017 when cash poured into risky Initial Coin Offerings or in 2022 when non-fungible tokens fetched millions. Bitcoin may aspire to be digital gold, but the last crash saw it tank 67% in a year."

Yesterday, when a reporter asked Trump whether he planned to keep peddling crypto products while in office, the president said, "I don't know much about it other than I launched it. I heard it was very successful. I haven't checked it. Where is it today?" After the reporter told him he made a lot of money — several billions of dollars — Trump said, "Several billions? That's peanuts for these guys."

"Something about this moment feels like a story that won't end well," says Lionel. "On top of the threat posed by Trump's personal conflicts and the fact that his own supporters may be being bilked, the ultimate risk is of a monetary system so awash with bad money that it drives out the good."

Bonus Trump Economy Reading: Prepare for inflation, higher interest rates and turbulence as the president puts his plans into action. — Bill Dudley

Stargate Squabble

Somehow, there's already trouble in paradise with Trump's new AI Manhattan Project, Stargate:

While it's unsurprising to see Elon Musk revisit his favorite pastime — arguing about "funding secured" — the very public back-and-forth with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman feels like a major blunder. Or, at the very least, "a bit chaotic," the phrase that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei used to describe the project. The truth is, $500 billion is a BIG number (hey, the peanuts add up!). And Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, of all people, is in the dark about where it's coming from: "All I know is, I'm good for my $80 billion," he told CNBC.

If the project does somehow come to fruition, Parmy Olson says it "would dramatically accelerate AI development," the exact kind of rapid scaling that Musk warned about in 2023 when he said artificial intelligence posed "profound risks to society and humanity" and could eventually lead to "civilization destruction." Yet lately Musk has chosen to stay silent about the dangers of AI, even as Trump repealed a Biden-era order on AI safety.

We're living in a time where "we know more about the ingredients in a packet of Doritos than we do about a generative AI model that banks and legal firms are plugging into their systems," Parmy writes. Instead of bickering with Altman on X and calling him a "swindler," maybe Musk should advise his boss to press pause on the project altogether.

Telltale Charts

"Two things Netflix Inc. said it would never do are now the core pillars of its future growth: advertising and live sports," writes Dave Lee. Its latest quarter blew Wall Street's expectations out of the water, thanks to Squid Game, a boxing match between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul and two Christmas Day NFL games. "Less discussed among Netflix's slate of live programming was the debut of WWE's Monday Night Raw," Dave writes, arguing that the platform's success with WWE gives it "muscle for favorable terms on full seasons of big-league games."

It's easy to look at the below chart and say the US is contributing way too much to the World Health Organization. "In 2022 and 2023, we kicked in $1.28 billion, $400 million more than the second-highest contributor, Germany," Lisa Javris writes. But not enough people are asking what we'll lose after Trump severs ties with the global health body: "The US might not get the most up-to-date information on disease outbreaks and will lose its position as the most influential voice in shaping global health policies. That will affect the health of people around the world — including in the US," Lisa explains. The latest influenza data? Gone. The promise of timely vaccinations and life-saving treatments? Nope. The critical programs that are needed to eradicate polio? Say goodbye.

Further Reading

Free read: Shocked by Trump's attempt to undo birthright citizenship? That's the point. — Patricia Lopez

Free read: Why won't Americans give up a silly video-sharing app to ward off Beijing? — Hal Brands

China's EV companies are taking longer to pay suppliers. That may not be such a bad thing. — David Fickling

At central banks, the race is on for catchy labels to fit the economics of today. — Daniel Moss

Taiwan should talk to Trump in a language he understands: business. — Karishma Vaswani

Handing money to German schoolkids to invest in stocks would help a lot, actually. — Chris Bryant

Under Trump, US strength is a problem for a much weakened Europe. — Marc Champion

Trump's decision to exit the Paris climate agreement is an act of self-sabotage. — Mark Gongloff

ICYMI

Another fire is rapidly spreading north of LA.

YouTube's manosphere is a MAGA machine.

Subreddits consider banning links to X.

Ketamine nasal spray, coming soon to a CVS near you.

Kickers

Timothée Chalamet reunites with his lookalikes.

Kamala Harris' videographer is forever changed.

Stanley Tucci's genius tip for buttering corn.

Notes: Pleases send buttered corn and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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[1] The irony that Trump — who recently called for drug dealers to receive the death penalty — just granted clemency to a man who founded a digital marketplace for drugs is not lost on many.

[2] It's worth noting that the DOJ seized north of 170K Bitcoins — over $18 billion in today's dollars — from Ulbricht in 2013. Money that could very well end up in Trump's ill-advised, yet-to-exist "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve."

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