Monday, January 27, 2025

Inflation may decide rate cut, election timing

Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to get your working week underway.Today's must-reads:• Crucial i
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Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to get your working week underway.

Today's must-reads:
• Crucial inflation data due Wednesday
• Labor slips behind opposition
• New Zealand eases visa rules

What's happening now

Quarterly inflation data this week may be key to whether the Reserve Bank finally embarks on a monetary easing cycle soon, and in turn, help decide the timing of an election due by May 17. While money markets are pricing some 70% chance the RBA will cut the target rate at its February meeting, a lot depends on price data scheduled Wednesday. Economists expect the trimmed mean inflation to have eased to 3.3%, a three-year low.

Some advanced economies shouldn't delay interest-rate cuts at a time when their labor markets may be about to sour, according to TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins. The former official at Britain's Treasury said in a report that among six "monetary canaries" he identified in 2022 as susceptible to higher borrowing costs, some now appear vulnerable. His list includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the UK.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor Party is trailing the opposition coalition despite a summer campaign blitz, according to the latest opinion poll. A Newspoll survey released by The Australian showed that voter support for the center-left Labor Party dropped to 49% while that for the center-right Liberal-National Coalition opposition climbed to 51%. They were tied at 50% in the December poll.

New Zealand relaxed its visa rules to allow foreign visitors to work remotely while in the nation. The government will target highly skilled people, particularly IT workers from Southeast Asia and the US, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis said. The new visa rules, which take effect immediately, will also allow travelers to extend their time in New Zealand.

New Zealand is reviewing its aid to Kiribati after the tiny Pacific nation's president canceled a meeting with Foreign Minister Winston Peters at short notice

What happened overnight

Nvidia's plunge, fueled by investor concern about Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek, erased a record amount of stock-market value from the world's largest company. Nvidia shares tumbled as much as 18% Monday, the biggest drop since March 2020. In early afternoon trading in New York, the decline erased $560 billion from the company's market capitalization. Read more about DeepSeek and its overnight rise to fame

For its part, Nvidia said DeepSeek's model is an "excellent AI advancement" that complies with US technology export controls. Nvidia's statement indicates it believes the Chinese company didn't violate US restrictions that limit access to advanced US chips in the creation of its technology. It also appears to dismiss some analysts' and experts' suspicions that the Chinese startup couldn't have made the breakthrough it has claimed.

From New York to London and Tokyo, equities got hammered. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 3.7%. A closely watched gauge of chipmakers plunged 10%. With big tech getting crushed, US stocks were set for their worst day since the last Federal Reserve decision that roiled trading.

DeepSeek's breakthroughs now pose a shift in the balance of power and a reckoning for tech giants, who are suddenly no longer the guaranteed winners of AI, writes Parmy Olson for Bloomberg Opinion.

Wall Street banks, finally within striking distance of offloading debt tied to X, have a sweetener on offer for potential buyers: a claim on the social-media platform's stake in Elon Musk's artificial intelligence venture. 

What to watch

All times Sydney

• 11:30 a.m.: Australia Dec. NAB Business Conditions

One more thing...

When Tiffany executives were looking for ways to boost staff morale, they rolled out an internal app called "Tiffany Joy." They asked workers to post photos celebrating couples getting engaged, colleagues' big sales and other meaningful moments at stores. It didn't take long to turn into a chore. Instead it has brought only forced joy. Adding to the displeasure: tying employees' paychecks to sales goals that workers rarely met and reneging on a pledge to pay some bonuses.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
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