Friday, January 31, 2025

ETF IQ: Doubling down on double leverage

ETF investors buy the dip
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Welcome to ETF IQ, a weekly newsletter dedicated to the $15 trillion global ETF industry. I'm Bloomberg News reporter Vildana Hajric, filling in for Katie Greifeld.

BTD

Monday's global stock-market selloff — spurred by fear that a cheap Chinese AI model could undercut existing American trailblazers — didn't scare off ETF investors. In fact, they saw it as an opportunity to buy the damn dip. (This is a family friendly newsletter, so we won't use the other, more risqué acronym). 

Case in point: the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (ticker QQQ), which saw $901 million come in in the four days through Thursday, with its cheaper counterpart QQQM seeing $440 million added, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

But the big news revolved around the inflows into leveraged funds that got seriously dinged during Monday's selloff. Astonishingly, $1.3 billion went into the Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares (SOXL) — which, as the name suggests, is an uber-bullish chips fund — on Monday, a day when the fund dropped 23%. And then more came in over the subsequent days — investors poured a combined $1.8 billion into it in the four sessions through Thursday.

But perhaps most impressive of all, the GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) saw an inflow of $1 billion on Monday, the same day when the fund itself lost 34%. It, too, absorbed even more as the week went on, with a net $1.4 billion added so far this week, which puts it on pace for a record week of inflows. Talk about eye-popping. 

This wasn't an isolated event. Equity flows following weekly drops in the S&P 500 have gone up in the past two months, with investors taking selloffs in December and January as buying opportunities as well, according to Athanasios Psarofagis at Bloomberg Intelligence. 

"ETF investors appear to be taking advantage of recent market weakness by adding to equity funds," he wrote in a note. "Flows show there's a growing appetite for buying market dips," he said, adding that one measure — the spread between leveraged long and inverse equity ETF — suggest a "bullish tilt." And as long as this ratio is in a positive tilt, he wagers investors will continue to buy the dips. 

For the Record

I might be biased, but the ETF complex has never looked better. 

Take a look at the Toroso ETF Industry Index, or TETF. It tracks issuers as well as companies that are part of or support the ETF world, including exchanges and trading platforms. The index's biggest members include BlackRock Inc., Charles Schwab Corp., State Street Corp. and WisdomTree Inc. — of course — but it also counts the likes of S&P Global Inc., Cboe Global Markets Inc., and others among its holdings. Just this week, it hit an all-time high, having moved up 8% year to date. That's after a 29% rise last year, a performance that beat the S&P 500's advance by about five percentage points. 

Many of these are categorized as "financials" firms, a sector that's done well of late. And perhaps it's not shocking to see the index hit a high given that the ETF complex has been growing year after year, with more issuers coming in, record numbers of launches and the first-ever $1 trillion annual inflow during 2024. But that in and of itself is astonishing given that ETFs have been around for three decades, and yet the industry continues to see growth.

"This is reflective of the success of the ETF industry, achieving record inflows last year, not just in the US, but globally," said Jane Edmondson, head of index product strategy at TMX VettaFi. She also pointed to continued product innovations in the space, including a slew of new derivative and crypto funds, among others. 

Whether or not this trend continues is anybody's guess. One could also make the case that as the ETF industry gets bigger, it creates more competition for issuers — in an already super-saturated market — which makes it more difficult for them to make money. Let's see what the next 30 years bring. 

In Other News

Quantify Funds CEO on STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF (BTGD)BlackRock Inc. is diving deeper into the burgeoning world of exchange-traded funds that track collateralized loan obligations. 

As levered-up US investors sustained eye-popping losses in tech stocks and related ETFs on Monday, they could take some comfort from the fact that another batch of speculative traders across the Atlantic had it even worse.

A popular ETF trade beloved by market speculators is fast turning into a billion-dollar revenue generator for nimble-footed financial firms.

Trump Media and Technology Group Corp. said it will start a financial-services brand called Truth.Fi, the latest move by a Donald Trump-linked business to push into finance during his presidency. It will also place $250 million — or about one-third of its cash — under Schwab's oversight, allocated to exchange-traded funds, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and financial vehicles.

Drill Down

In this week's Drill Down on Bloomberg Television's ETF IQ, Quantify Funds CEO & CIO David Dziekanski talks about why one of his funds — ticker BTGD — combines gold and Bitcoin. 

Here's what he had to say:

The idea was to offer a two-for-one currency debasement hedge in one package. These are two assets that are both considered scarcity assets that people invest often as protection against a devaluation of currencies around the world. They also have correlation benefits between the two, so stacking makes a lot of sense.

Next Week on ETF IQ

Katie Greifeld will be back next week at the helm of this newsletter. In the meantime, she'll be a guest on a live taping of the Trumponomics podcast on Wednesday, February 5th at Bloomberg's New York headquarters. If you're in the area, join us in person for a discussion of global economics in the Trump era. More information here.

Holly Framsted of Capital Group and Wes Gray of Alpha Architect will join Katie, Eric Balchunas and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's ETF IQ on Monday at noon ET. Watch on Bloomberg Television, on the Bloomberg Terminal at TV <GO> and on YouTube.

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