Monday, January 6, 2025

Austria jolts Europe’s mainstream

The rise of the Austrian Freedom Party offers a lesson for countries that have tried to keep the far right from power.
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With all that's been going on in the world lately, it's easy to forget Austria.

Vienna has other ideas, and all Europe is now looking on.

Political leaders in Austria have been plugging away at forming a government since September elections that were won by the anti-immigration, pro-Russia Freedom Party.

Lacking a majority, the Freedom Party led by Herbert Kickl was shut out by other groups that attempted to forge a centrist coalition. Those efforts collapsed this weekend, prompting the resignation of conservative Chancellor Karl Nehammer.

Kickl is next in line to try. Assuming he can form a government — and the signs are positive with the conservatives now ready to back him — he is poised to become Austria's first far-right chancellor since World War II.

That would give him a say in European Union decision-making in fields relating to Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion, and on migration and climate policy.

But Austria also offers a potential precedent for other countries that have adopted similar measures to keep the far right from power.

In France, parliament is gridlocked after voters split three ways in large part to hinder Marine Le Pen's National Rally.

The most pertinent example though is Germany, where the nationalist AfD party is polling in second place to the center-right conservative bloc ahead of a Feb. 23 snap election.

German AfD Co-leader Alice Weidel speaks during a Bloomberg TV interview in Berlin, on Dec. 18. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

The AfD, which is in an even more extreme European grouping than the Freedom Party, has little chance of entering government at regional or national level since it is shunned by Germany's other parties.

It's a policy that has done nothing to blunt its rise, if anything fostering its insurgent appeal among disaffected voters, especially in the former communist eastern regions.

The firewall has already crumbled in onetime liberal bastions the Netherlands and Sweden. How tenable it remains in Germany should become clearer next month.

If Austria is any measure, the answer may be uncomfortable. Alan Crawford

WATCH: Kickl is on track to become the Freedom Party's first chancellor. Oliver Crook reports on Bloomberg TV.

Global Must Reads

South Korea's corruption watchdog filed for an extension of a warrant to arrest President Yoon Suk Yeol after an initial attempt last week ended in failure following an hours-long standoff with his security team. The country has been in crisis since Yoon's brief declaration of martial law at the beginning of December and parliament has voted to impeach both Yoon and Prime Minister Han Duck-Soo, who briefly became acting president; Finance Minister Choi Sang-Mok now occupies that role.

North Korea fired a ballistic missile toward its eastern waters, raising tensions in the region as Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea today to reaffirm the security alliance between Washington and Seoul and express confidence in Acting President Choi. North Korea fired more than 40 missiles last year, coinciding with Pyongyang's growing military cooperation with Russia, with Kim Jong Un sending troops to join the war in Ukraine.

Italy confirmed today that it's in talks with Elon Musk's SpaceX for a deal to provide secure telecommunications for the government. The news came after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Saturday, although the administration in Rome said the pair didn't discuss SpaceX.

The Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, pledged that a bill addressing a wide range of Trump's priorities will be approved in April in what represents a tight schedule for his narrowly divided chamber. The giant bill would tackle issues such as border security, including money for the mass deportations of undocumented immigrants; an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts; and "dismantling the deep state," according to Johnson.

Ecuador's fractious politics appear headed for a showdown even before Feb. 9 presidential elections amid a struggle for control of the government. The National Assembly will today discuss President Daniel Noboa's refusal to hand over power to his deputy as required by the constitution during an election campaign, with he and Vice President Veronica Abad accusing each other of plotting a coup.

Veronica Abad and Daniel Noboa. Photographer: Andres Yepez/Bloomberg

Taiwan suspects that a Chinese-owned cargo vessel damaged an undersea cable near its northeastern coast on Friday in an alleged act of sabotage that highlights the vulnerabilities of Taipei's offshore communications infrastructure.

Justin Trudeau is expected to resign as leader of Canada's Liberal Party this week after nine years in power, the Globe and Mail reported, a move that would trigger a contest to replace him as prime minister.

Musk turned on his erstwhile British ally, Nigel Farage, posting on his X platform that the Reform UK leader "doesn't have what it takes" and should be replaced.

A Brazilian court ordered federal police to open an investigation into a visiting Israeli soldier for alleged war crimes committed in the Gaza Strip; the soldier left Brazil after the order was issued, according to Israel's embassy.

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Chart of the Day

Central bankers worldwide are poised to cut borrowing costs further in 2025, but only warily — and with a keen eye on Donald Trump. While almost all major economies should see monetary easing during the coming year, the pace is likely to slow, according to a Bloomberg Economics measure of advanced-world interest rates.

And Finally

A niche corner of the insurance market based in London is keeping hundreds of billions of dollars in commodity trade moving through some of the world's most dangerous waters. As conflicts rage in the Middle East and Ukraine, shipping goods is becoming increasingly perilous, with the highest number of risky areas in at least two decades. The Red Sea and Black Sea are vital passageways for oil, coal and grains, and some of those essentials would be stuck in port without insurance against acts of war.

Thanks to the 34 people who correctly answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Stephen Markscheid, who was first to name Greenland as the self-ruling territory that Trump hinted he's still interested in buying.

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