| Last year was one to forget for the media business. The decline of cable, which started a decade ago, accelerated. The movie business contracted (again). The music business struggled to find new ways to grow. The video-game business fired thousands of workers. While there were a couple major corporate developments — the Redstone family finally gave up control of Paramount and Netflix got into sports — it was not a year of revelations or revolution. The most-popular podcast is still Joe Rogan. The most-popular musician is still Taylor Swift. The most-popular TV show (in the US) is still the NFL. And the most-popular movies were all sequels, prequels or spinoffs – more on that in a minute. Netflix, Spotify and YouTube consolidated their control over eyes and ears; those three companies are worth almost $1 trillion today. Many executives hope 2025 will bring a sense of renewal; many analysts see that as wishful thinking. While I prefer to break news about what is happening rather than predict what will happen, I am going to share a few thoughts as we enter 2025. I also received many predictions from readers, so I will share a couple of those. If I missed anything, please message me at lshaw31@bloomberg.net. - Hollywood will spend another year ignoring reality and debating if the movie business is back.
Every time a movie delivers a big opening, executives and social-media commenters declare that the business is back. This assumes a world where the film business was booming before the pandemic and that all we need is a normal year for people to return to the multiplex as they did before. But that isn't reality. Domestic box-office attendance, based on tickets sold, peaked in 2002 and has fallen almost 50% from that high. Even excluding the couple years most affected by the pandemic, inflation-adjusted revenue is near an all-time low, based on data going back to 1995. This doesn't mean the movie business is doomed. People go to theaters for the right movie. But we need to stop pretending that one hit movie marks a return to the good old days. People go to fewer movies than they used to. That trend predates the pandemic and the 2023 strikes by writers and actors. There are more ways to entertain yourself than ever before. Studios are competing to make sure their movies are the two or three that folks see in theaters. It's feast or famine. - There will be zero original movies in the top 10 next year.
Nine of the 10 highest-grossing movies in 2024 were sequels, reboots or prequels. The 10th was Wicked, which is an adaptation of a book and musical based on characters from a book and movie. Not one of the 15 highest-grossing movies of 2024 was original. Two book adaptations, It Ends With Us and The Wild Robot, were the closest we have in the top 20. The highest-grossing truly original film is If, which sits at No. 24. We can expect more of the same in 2025. The top three movies will likely be sequels to Avatar, Jurassic Park and Zootopia. The top 10 should include sequels or reboots of Wicked, Superman and Captain America, and possible new installments of Mission: Impossible, Fantastic Four and Snow White. The one outlier here is Minecraft, which should be a major hit. But it's a movie inspired by a video game. It's hard to call that original. - Spotify's video strategy will 'work' this time
Spotify is making video the default for many podcasts, which is going to inflate viewership figures. If you listen to Bill Simmons, guess the lines with Cousin Sal or talk about the NBA with Ryen Russillo, your podcast defaults to video. While I switch mine to audio, lots of people will be too lazy to do that. They will be counted as a viewer even with their phones in their pockets. That doesn't mean video creators will flock to Spotify. The company's outreach to YouTubers has been unsuccessful, for the most part. Big stars like MrBeast and Marques Brownlee aren't going to embrace Spotify without a greater financial incentive, but podcasters have little to lose by putting their videos on Spotify. If Spotify can show advertisers and investors some impressive numbers, it will pay off in the short term. - Media companies will combine streaming services and sell cable networks. None of these moves will have a huge impact.
I've been a skeptic of the narrative that the election of Donald Trump will usher in a wave of mega media deals, largely because so many big deals have already happened. But the rapid decline of the conventional pay-TV business is forcing many companies to make major changes. Comcast is spinning off its cable networks. Warner Bros. Discovery is reorganizing around streaming and studios. Paramount explored selling a couple networks, and then its owners sold the whole company. These feel like steps towards more deals. The companies have already talked about partnerships in streaming. Yet it's hard to say exactly what will happen. Executives proposed just about every twist on the same general idea in this CNBC prediction list — while also predicting there would be no deals. At all. Translation? Nobody knows! Here's what we do know: None of the most-discussed moves is a game changer. You could combine Peacock, Max and Paramount+ into one service, and it would still be way behind Netflix. And there is no salvaging cable networks. Just look at the audience in prime time for these networks. You could add up every cable network in the portfolio at Paramount and their audience would still be smaller than CBS's. The same is true at Comcast and Disney. - You're going to hear a lot more about brand-funded TV.
As Hollywood studios pull back on spending, producers are turning to new sources of capital. Some are looking to the Middle East, but that's a risky endeavor. Many are also turning to advertisers. Advertisers have been funding TV since its inception; sponsors helped networks pay for their shows. What's different this time – or so some people say – is that advertisers are getting involved at an earlier stage. They are funding the production. Manager and producer Michael Sugar is spending a lot of time on this, and NBC has bought a show produced by Jimmy Fallon where contestants compete to make the best brand campaign. It's paid for by … the brand! - A major studio will license its films and/or TV shows to an artificial intelligence video generator.
Studios have been talking to OpenAI and Runway, among others, about licensing their films and TV shows for training purposes. These companies would either train their consumer-facing video models on old movies, or they would partner with a studio to develop a model specifically for a Disney or Warner Bros. Some newspapers and book publishers have already licensed their work for training. Studios are reluctant to give away the goods without getting a lot of money in return – as well as guarantees about how their work is used. Hollywood unions are making a lot of noise to stop studios from doing deals. But someone will decide the risk is worth the reward. These AI companies are offering millions of dollars and studios want to make sure they aren't completely left behind in the AI revolution. A new regime at the Justice Department will be less interested in going after the concert giant. While the soaring price of tickets is a bipartisan issue, it's hard to see this administration spending as much time on antitrust enforcement unless John Malone and Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino are on Trump's enemy list. (A reminder to watch my interview with Rapino at last year's Screentime.) But Trump is all about transactions, so what will Live Nation need to give up to make it go away? - Trump will find a way to stop the TikTok ban.
I have no strong argument here. It's just a feeling. Trump initially floated the idea and then soured on it. But overturning a law is hard, especially when the courts seem to agree with it. There is a strong case I will get this wrong within the next three weeks! - Investors, TV networks and news outlets will pump money into podcasting and YouTube.
As someone who has covered podcasts and YouTube for more than a decade, I found it strange to witness many corners of society suddenly remembering and/or realizing how popular they are. Trump didn't win the election because of Joe Rogan, but his consistent presence on podcasts popular among young men was clearly an advantage. YouTube channels and podcasts have amassed large audiences while spending far less than their TV peers. Cable news networks will replicate ESPN's approach with Pat McAfee and develop podcasts that they can air at a fraction of the cost of a normal show. News outlets of all stripes will invest more in YouTube to reach young viewers. Financial firms will invest in podcast companies and YouTube networks – likely with the dream of rolling a few up. Nobody knows how to reach the viewer and listener anymore; the few among us with loyal audiences will thrive. - Ari Emanuel will split his UFC rights between a couple buyers to get the money he wants.
Negotiations for the biggest sports rights deal of the year started this month. Emanuel is going to want a huge increase over the $550 million the UFC currently receives from two deals with Disney. The UFC would like to remain in business with ESPN, but I don't know that Disney is going to double its investment. Most major sports leagues spread their rights around among a few partners to maximize their return. Expect the UFC to do the same. - A bonus: Escapism will be worth a lot of money.
People are tired of thinking and talking about politics. That's bad for news networks and news organizations. It should be good news for Hollywood and other entertainers – if they make the right product. This is my theory for why a sequel to Joker didn't work – too bleak – but lighter or more uplifting fare did. But maybe I'm crazy. And a few predictions from readers… About a third of all predictions related to mergers and acquisitions. Candidate #1: Warner Bros. Discovery merges with someone or spins off its channels Candidate #2: Streaming services will merge or die (Paramount+ is mentioned most often) Candidate #3: Independent producers like Candle and North Road will be sold Candidate #4: Roku Candidate #5: Paramount buys Netflix. (Someone actually suggested this. Mind you Netflix is worth almost $400 billion and Paramount less than $10 billion.) - The movie business will bounce back
I addressed this in my own predictions, but Hollywood runs on hope. Experts also predicted a resurgence in independent film outside the US and a revival in independent TV production. - At least one media mogul will get fired and another will refuse to leave.
A lot of people think Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav will get fired — I wouldn't bet on that — and a few think Bob Iger will remain Disney CEO beyond his current contract. Experts offered contradictory predictions about many of the biggest players in the space. Some of them are too funny to ignore. Example #1: Apple will buy HBO, Disney and the Criterion Collection. It will also shut down its Hollywood studio. Example #2: Amazon will buy Lions Gate, make a major move into regional sports and stop funding premium TV. Example #3: Elon Musk will buy a Hollywood studio, Truth Social and TikTok. He will also implode and anger Trump enough to get deported. I received two predictions about me. One said I will eat kittens for breakfast and another said I will get engaged. The first one will never happen. The second one already has. Happy new year. The best of Screentime (and other stuff) | The No. 1 TV show in the world is… | Squid Game. The second season of the show topped the Netflix charts in 92 countries, delivering more than 68 million views. That is the biggest opening week in Netflix history. The second season of Squid Game is already one of the 10-most-popular non-English original seasons of TV in Netflix history and will go down as one of the 10-most-watched in any language. The original Squid Game topped the charts for weeks and weeks and peaked at almost 70 million views in one seven-day frame. The second season would need to replicate that momentum to have any shot of matching its predecessor in total views. The No. 1 movie in the world is…Mufasa. The live-action prequel to The Lion King has gathered momentum since getting roasted initially by Sonic the Hedgehog 3. The movie has been the top film in the world for several days in a row and is getting close to $500 million in global ticket sales. Disney still wanted more for a film that cost $200 million to produce. Its previous live-action Lion King grossed $1.7 billion. This will be lucky to make half of that. The best movies I saw over the holidays were A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist. Watching a two-hour Bob Dylan concert with great performances by Timothée Chalamet, Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton was a joy. I can't say The Brutalist was a joy, but it was the most impressive and thought-provoking movie I've seen in a while. Also worth watching: Planetwalker, a documentary about John Francis, a man who gave up motorized transport and speaking after witnessing an oil tanker collision in the San Francisco bay. Bloomberg is one of the distributors of the movie, which is on the Oscar short list for best documentary short. You can watch it for free right here. | 
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