Thursday, November 7, 2024

The London Rush: Build, build, build

Housing market indicates caution ahead.

Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today's top business stories.

At first glance, indicators point to a pretty bullish housing market.

Taylor Wimpey said today it expects to complete 10,000 homes this year, at the top end of guidance, with "strong underlying demand for the homes we sell." The housebuilder welcomed the government's moves to tackle a chronic lack of supply in the UK and reform the planning system. Shares inched higher.

Meanwhile, on the pricing side, fresh Halifax data this morning shows house prices hitting a record high last month, boosted by cheaper mortgages.

But, as ever, there's a catch. Price increases have slowed over the past year, and Halifax now predicts only modest growth.

Why? Well, despite expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates again later today, hopes of another cut in December have largely faded due to worries that Rachel Reeves' borrowing spree will fan inflation. More on that from David Goodman below.

And homebuilders are concerned. Taylor Wimpey noted "uncertainty" around the budget, while rival Persimmon yesterday flagged rising costs. The latter's shares tumbled, ending the day down around 8%. Tomorrow we get an update from Rightmove, where eyes will be on more than just floorplans.

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

A surge in long-haul travel is driving demand for Rolls-Royce's engines. It maintained full-year guidance, despite ongoing supply chain issues.

Wizz Air also noted strong (first-half) bookings and kept its annual forecasts, on the expectation momentum continues through the year. Crucially, it is making progress on engine-related aircraft groundings, but says that will keep inflating costs.

BT shares slipped after it cut revenue guidance for the year ending March 2025, with the outlook weak for its division that serves business customers. The former telecoms monopoly also lost 377,000 Openreach broadband customers in the six months through September.

Challenges continue for Martin Sorrell's S4 Capital, predominantly on the global macro picture and high interest rates (plus some underperformance). The marketing firm says that has hit some tech clients' spending, prompting a small profit warning.

Plus, City AM may scrap its Monday edition and limit printing its free tabloid to three days a week, having already ditched Friday as it struggles post-pandemic.

Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: BOE to the Rescue?

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

It's been a pretty rough time for UK gilts since we last heard from the Bank of England, with yields spiking in the run up to both the budget and US election, and rising even higher after both events.

The upshot is 10-year yields are almost 70 basis points higher than the day before the bank's September decision (4.56% vs 3.85%) while markets are pricing in considerably less easing too.

Indeed, traders now see only 87 basis points of cuts by the end of next year (including the near-certain prospect of a move today), from 150 in September.

The question is how much of that damage can Andrew Bailey undo today? With a cut seen as a given, his comments on the outlook will be key.

Before the budget, Bailey had seemed to be arguing for a more aggressive approach from the BOE, which isn't consistent with market pricing for only two or three cuts next year. It will be interesting to learn the degree to which the fiscal loosening of Rachel Reeves' first budget changed his thinking. 

David Goodman

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

British Airways parent IAG is expected to keep boosting earnings on the back of strong demand (particularly for long-haul flights) but faces risks from things like supplier issues and global conflicts.

Analysts, however, argue its third-quarter results tomorrow should show a resilient business with strong margins.

Three of the Best: Sunday Pub Roasts

Hi, its Ed, a new member of Pursuits. In the spirit of cozy pub season, here are some of my top spots for a Sunday roast with all the necessary trimmings:

The Parakeet, Kentish Town

Past the velvet curtain separating the pub bar from the restaurant is one of the best roast experiences going, complete with an open kitchen, stain glassed windows and a quirky take on traditional dishes — from oysters with pickled seaweed and apple, to Celeriac wellington. The approach here is to cook food over fire which gives the dishes a unique smoky quality.

The Jugged Hare, Barbican

Adorned with the heads of animals on the wall, the Jugged Hare amplifies the Sunday meaty roast experience. The pub is known for its seasonal game — including the eponymous hare served in a literal jug — but it's traditional roasts, complete with duck fat-roasted potatoes, are reason alone to venture into the city on the weekend.

The Harwood Arms, Fulham

Tucked away in an unassuming backstreet of Fulham, you could easily miss the only Michelin-starred pub in London. Until you try the food. Roast options include locally sourced beef and pork alongside slow cooked deer shoulder and Cornish skate — more adventurous twists to accompany your Yorkshire puddings.

— Ed Stapley

Pub Quiz

The government has backed plans for a £1 billion network to heat Westminster (Downing Street, National Gallery etc) via a series of underground pipes. Where will it transfer excess warm air from, to power hot water and central heating systems?

Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

[Yesterday's answer: HSBC's new headquarters on Newgate Street used to be the site of BT's head office for years.]

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The London Rush: Build, build, build

Housing market indicates caution ahead. View in browser Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloombe...