| Listen to many economists and the tariff-paved road ahead for the global economy following the election of Donald Trump to another term in the White House is one destined for lower growth, higher inflation and plenty of turmoil. Then there's the alternative version CEOs seem to have seized on, as we examine here. In earnings calls and interviews recently, plenty have projected doubt that Trump will deliver on all the tariffs he has threatened. And, if he does, they add, they are more than ready to adapt. In a call with analysts Wednesday shortly after Trump's victory being called by US media outlets Oliver Zipse, BMW's CEO and chairman, dismissed any threat of tariffs hitting the German carmaker's business as premature. "It might also only be that this is a verbal issue," Zipse told analysts. Meanwhile, BMW shares tumbled on exactly those fears. Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan Jr. told analysts recently the company had been planning for a Trump victory and a new tariff regime since the spring. "We have a playbook on the shelf ready to go," Allan said. There are, of course, big questions hanging over Trump's threats that start with a track record of promising more than he delivers. His first term in office was renowned for chaotic economic policymaking and bitter internal battles between rival aides on trade. It also fell far short of delivering what he campaigned on in 2016. A promise to abandon NAFTA turned into a renegotiation and a rebranding (meet the USMCA). Yes, he delivered tariffs on some Chinese imports and triggered a shift in production to other countries. But he also included vast exceptions and let off CEOs who pleaded their case. QuickTake: Why Trump's Plan to Escalate Tariffs Has Many Haters Apple's Tim Cook avoided most of the company's China-assembled products being subjected to Trump's tariffs in 2018 by flying in to dine with Trump at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, and arguing that such duties would only hurt the US company in its competition against South Korean rival Samsung.  Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg "I thought he made a very compelling argument," Trump told reporters the next day. Most of Apple's products avoided the 25% tariffs. Part of what is driving the sanguine response from many CEOs is that the world has changed since Trump's first term. Companies have practice avoiding tariffs and realigning supply chains. These are core skills now, honed through the chaos of the pandemic and the advent of an era in which geopolitics can drive trade and investment more than cost efficiencies. Accepting Protectionism We also live in an time in which the same CEOs who once backed big free trade agreements seem to accept protectionism. During a recent Bloomberg interview Robin Niven, the CEO of Bank New York Mellon, recounted a meeting earlier this year with German CEOs in which they bemoaned the competition the country's auto industry faced from Chinese electric vehicles. US automakers aren't facing that threat, Niven pointed out, thanks to tariffs imposed first by Trump and raised by President Joe Biden. His point was that the details and objectives of tariffs matter and that in a new Trump administration that will remain the case. Sure, a 10% to 20% universal tariff as Trump has threatened would fuel inflation in the US, Niven said. But it's also unclear that will ever happen, he insisted. "I take with a pinch of salt anything that a candidate says in the immediate run-up to the election," he said. Related Reading: —Shawn Donnan in Washington Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping. | 
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