Monday, November 18, 2024

Markets Daily: ETFs for the win

Donald Trump's search for a Treasury secretary devolved into disarray over the weekend, with contenders tussling for support. Elon Musk spok

Five things you need to know

  • Donald Trump's search for a Treasury secretary devolved into disarray over the weekend, with contenders tussling for support. Elon Musk spoke with hedge fund manager Scott Bessent — whom Trump is considering for the post — after Musk endorsed Howard Lutnick for the job.
  • Xi Jinping used a meeting with Joe Biden to spell out his approach toward Trump by reiterating China's "four red lines." That means avoiding any moves to undermine the Communist Party grip on power, to push the nation toward democracy, to contain its economic rise or to encourage Taiwan independence.
  • Bitcoin is flying again, briefly surpassing $92,000. US stock-index futures and bonds are steady. Treasuries are up just 0.7% for 2024 after a two-month slump.
  • Ukraine's allies are pushing Volodymyr Zelenskiy to lure Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. The US has decided to allow long-range missile strikes by Ukraine on Russian territory to bolster Zelenskiy's position before Trump takes office.
  • Wall Street is rolling out is forecasts for 2025, with Morgan Stanley setting a bullish target for the S&P 500, Goldman recommending gold and Barclays suggesting an underweight position in UK equities. Details below.

ETF winners

Don't get too disheartened by last week's stock pullback after the intense post-election rally: It's been a banner year all round for building wealth from financial markets.

Case in point: If you've put money in an exchange-traded fund — those cheap products designed for the masses — you're likely enjoying stellar gains, no matter what you've been betting on. A near-record 96% of ETFs have posted positive returns over the past year, with the majority of products headed for double-digit wins, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.

But things are less impressive when looking at the performance of so-called smart-money investors on Wall Street. While the average US-domiciled ETF is up 14% over the past 12 months, popular gauges tracking hedge-fund returns are scoring much smaller victories.

These higher-fee strategies have proved too complex for their own good, either by diversifying bets across the stock market or shorting weak-looking companies. This tactic hasn't looked particularly smart this year given technology stocks have driven markets to records, in turn boosting low-cost ETFs that track indexes and more. 

"Not only are ETFs generally inexpensive, but it would have been virtually impossible to lose money this year," said Bloomberg Intelligence's Athanasios Psarofagis.


If these trends endure, there are two obvious takeaways. First, the stock market is boosting the stock-owning class across America to a historic degree. The net worth of US households reached a fresh record in the second quarter of $163.8 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve.

Second, if simple bets on US equities continue to wow, life will get even harder for money managers trying to convince mom-and-pop investors to diversify their holdings, whether it's by allocating money overseas or buying less-loved equities. Still, the investment rationale is reasonable in theory. 

Valuations for popular trades are already sky-high and an inflation resurgence may yet undercut the great risk rally. But for now, it's been a good stretch for the average 401(k). —Denitsa Tsekova

On the move

  • Tesla is up 7.8% in premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported that members of Trump's transition team are seeking to ease US rules for self-driving cars. The stock has been on a tear, surging 28% since election day.

The week ahead

The big earnings event is Nvidia, the world's biggest company, which reports after the close on Wednesday.  

Retailers are also getting ready to release projections for the holiday shopping season, which will give investors a reading on the state of the consumer. Walmart and Lowe's are set to report on Tuesday, followed by Target and TJ Maxx owner TJX on Wednesday. Executives will also likely to face questions about the impact of Trump's proposed tariffs.

The retailer outlooks will be critical, given that consumer spending powers two-thirds of the US economy and the current quarter is typically the strongest of the year.

The economics diary is quite light. There's US housing data on Tuesday and Thursday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index on Friday. Canada sees inflation statistics on Tuesday. Check out the full economics week ahead. —Katrina Compoli

2025 outlooks 

Here's a round up of the latest calls on Wall Street:  

  • US equities: Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, a well known bear, has an outright bullish view. He expects the S&P 500 to end next year around 6,500, up 11% from current levels. 
  • Global equities: Goldman Sachs sees stocks returning 10% next year. "Interest rate cuts that coincide with economic growth tend to be supportive for equities," write strategists at the bank. 
  • Gold: Goldman names the metal as one of its top commodity trades, with a target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025.
  • European stocks: Barclays sees the Stoxx 600 rising about 7% to 545 by the end of next year. The bank recommends a UK underweight, market-weight Japan and underweight EM. It has a US overweight on pro-business policies under Trump. 
  • China stocks: Strategists are turning more pessimistic because of deflationary pressure and geopolitical tension. "We see a low limited chance that China's government will front-load enough fiscal stimulus to target consumption and housing in 2025," write Morgan Stanley strategists. 

Word from Wall Street

The speculation over the next US Treasury secretary is the biggest debate on Wall Street. 

What else we're reading

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