Monday, November 4, 2024

Labour's happy distraction

The Readout with Julian Harris

Big things are going to happen this week. Very big things — predominantly in the world's largest economy, where extremely tight polling between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is keeping the market on its toes

Tomorrow's US election is so monumental that it threatens to cast a shadow of irrelevance over events in our corner of the world — even if, in normal times, this week would be considered a pretty feverish spell of activity for British public life.

In the City we of course have Thursday's interest rates decision, while across town the Conservatives will soon have a new shadow cabinet as Kemi Badenoch (pronounced Bayd-en-och, incidentally) unveils her squad. Mel Stride will be shadow chancellor, reports said this afternoon, with Laura Trott picking up education.

On the other side of parliament's benches the Labour leadership is trying to push on with the business of government. Keir Starmer gave a speech to Interpol in Glasgow this morning in which he called for a global battle against people smuggling and said it should be treated like terrorism.

It's a grave and serious topic — though one that puts the former chief prosecutor on comfortable ground — but back in Westminster, Starmer's colleagues are still struggling to ignore the aftershocks of the budget a full five days since it was delivered.

Some of the dissent has been led by Britain's richest man, James Dyson, who put the cat among the pigeons with a weekend op-ed that railed against the reduction in relief on inheritance tax on agricultural and business assets.

James Dyson Photographer: CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP

Admittedly, not everyone is sympathetic. Outgoing IFS boss Paul Johnson dismissed complaints as "special pleading by some extremely wealthy people" on Times Radio, while others have noted that Dyson owns an estimated 36,000 acres of farmland across five English counties.

You can make up your own minds. But either way, the noise around Labour's fiscal maneuvering is set to drag on for a little while yet. Richard Hughes, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, will likely make headlines when he answers MPs' questions about the budget tomorrow morning, while this evening's news will include a policy guaranteed to trigger a loud reaction — rising university tuition fees.

Starmer warned last month that his government would take unpopular decisions, and it's certainly not disappointing. If his Cabinet colleagues have any more up their sleeves, they might want to save them for Wednesday morning, when the eyes of the world will be fixed on Washington D.C.

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

The big number

£115.91
The cost of power in the UK, measured by megawatt-hour — which rose 9% today to its highest level in almost a year.

What they said

"Bonkers"
Michael O'Leary
Chief Executive Officer of Ryanair
The outspoken CEO said the new Labour government is "bonkers" for pledging first to support the economy and then raising travel levies just months after coming to power.

Traders are preparing for a long, volatile US election night

A polling station in North Carolina Photographer: Allison Joyce/Bloomberg

One key story, every weekday

For the big money on Wall Street, there's the prep that's bound to come with a coin-toss election that could dramatically swing policy. Trading desks staffed through the night, with teams in Hong Kong and Singapore enlisted to help. Tracking popular "Trump trades" — long the dollar, short bonds — ready to pile in or quickly unwind.

And then there are the steps taken for an election season like no other. One London-based hedge fund primed its "shock" computer model especially for this moment. Banks are preparing for the risks, however remote, of civic violence — a prospect that would shake the US, the world and global financial markets.

Read The Big Take.

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