Crypto News: Europe’s roadmap for a Trump victory

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As the world holds its breath ahead of the US election, anyone searching for clues as to how the return of Donald Trump might play out could look at how his far-right acolytes in Europe have handled their increasing support.

When Trump burst onto the US political scene during the 2016 Republican primaries, Viktor Orban had already been running Hungary for six years and Law & Justice had just returned to power in Poland.

Orban is roaring Trump on to the chagrin of his mainstream partners in the European Union, while Giorgia Meloni has just completed two years in power in Rome after emerging from the fringes of Italian politics.

The experiences in Europe show that there is no single formula for how far-right leaders behave in power. Orban has hardened his positions on most issues while Meloni has become more moderate.

Viktor Orban. Photographer: Chris Kleponis/CNP

The Hungarian prime minister may be the most likely model for a second Trump term. That suggests US institutions would be put to the test by a president determined to centralize power who has telegraphed his frustration with constitutional checks and balances.

Meloni's softening has partly been of necessity, as she tries to satisfy both her populist base and the bond buyers on whom her government's stability depends. She hasn't matched Orban's full-throated endorsement of Trump either.

But through her relationship with Elon Musk, she is hoping that she might have a back channel to the next White House if the Republican wins tomorrow.

Whatever the outcome, as the hardening immigration policies of mainstream parties on both sides of the Atlantic show, even when far-right forces remain on the sidelines of power, they can leave a mark.— Ben Sills

Meloni meets with Musk in Rome in June 2023. Source: Palazzo Chigi/ANSA/ZUMA Press/Shutterstock

Musk has become one of Trump's biggest donors while maintaining extensive business interests in China, a role that bodes well for President Xi Jinping if the Republican candidate wins back the White House. Musk's views on China — opposing US duties on Chinese electric vehicles and saying Taiwan should effectively be under Beijing's control — are in stark contrast to some in Trump's orbit, and closely align with those of Xi.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu defeated a pro-Russian candidate to secure reelection, allowing her to continue to steer the former Soviet republic on a western-facing path. Sandu's win in yesterday's runoff vote came after what electoral authorities called "massive interference" from Russia, and followed a razor—thin victory in a referendum on proceeding toward European Union membership.

Spanish King Felipe VI and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez were met with a hostile crowd on a visit to the scene of last week's flash floods in the Valencia region, a tragedy that has exposed the consequences of government dysfunction. Anger had been building about why the authorities were slow to react to the disaster, which killed at least 211 people, as regional and central governments — from opposite sides of the ideological spectrum — gave conflicting accounts over the timing of emergency alerts.

WATCH: King Felipe VI of Spain surrounded by an angry mob yesterday amid growing frustration over the response to the floods disaster.

A rare top-level probe is looking into claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is manipulating public discourse around the war in Gaza to stay in power, including leaking classified documents to justify his demands in cease-fire negotiations with Hamas. Netanyahu and his supporters say the investigation is part of a deep-state witch hunt aimed at discrediting him and his policies.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said she was wrong to tell voters before the election that Labour wouldn't announce new tax increases. Her TV appearance yesterday was the latest effort in a media blitz to sell a budget that not only included the biggest tax increase in decades, but a huge rise in borrowing, prompting a two-day sell off in government bonds last week.

A Supreme Court review of the controversial effort to overhaul Mexico's judiciary is set to intensify a battle between justices and the ruling Morena party, threatening to push the nation to the brink of a constitutional crisis.

Iran is planning a counterattack on Israel involving more powerful warheads and other weapons, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.

Thailand delayed naming a new central bank chairman as opposition mounted against the government's bid to push the candidacy of a former finance minister, part of an effort to tighten its grip over the monetary authority.

Kemi Badenoch beat Conservative rival Robert Jenrick to become the first Black leader of a major UK political party.

A poll by the Des Moines Register that showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa, long a solidly Republican state that no Democratic presidential candidate has won since 2012, stunned the Washington political establishment on the final weekend before Election Day.

While Republicans and many Democrats characterized the survey by the widely-respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer as a likely outlier, it suggested that Harris could be succeeding in her efforts to make inroads among midwestern White voters. Selzer said women, especially older women, were responsible for the shift away from Trump.

Harris campaigning in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Judy Dimon, the prominent political donor and wife of Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase's top executive, canvassed voters in Michigan in support of Harris. The CEO of the biggest US bank has declined to publicly endorse either candidate, pledging that he would work with whoever is elected.

One person to watch today: Trump will conclude his third presidential campaign in the same place he ended his previous two: Grand Rapids, Michigan.

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Efforts to prevent methane from warming the atmosphere have been declared a priority by world leaders and fossil-fuel executives. Yet discharges of the potent greenhouse gas remain close to a record level set in 2019 as supply continues to expand, according to International Energy Agency data. Methane will again be a focus when more than 190 countries gather in Baku for COP29 talks later this month.

Just six years ago, it would have been unfathomable for hotel operators to be jockeying to deepen their foothold in Saudi Arabia. But the kingdom has since flung open its doors to tourism — making it easier for visitors to secure necessary visas, loosening dress codes for women and ditching a requirement that males and females prove they're related before allowing them to share a hotel room. It's part of the kingdom's push to lure more than 150 million tourists a year by the end of the decade.

Beach villas at Nujuma, Marriott's new resort in Saudi Arabia, where rooms can go for $5,300 a night. Source: Marriott International

Thanks to the 23 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to José Goenaga for being the first to name former Bolivian President Evo Morales as the leader accused by his country's government of shooting at police after refusing to stop at a checkpoint.

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