Crypto News: COP29: Searching the seat cushions

Good evening from Baku. If it's impolite to talk about money and politics, Bloomberg Green committed some major faux pas today at our event at the Baku Business Center. The discussion topics ranged from what Trump's election means for climate ambition to who's funding the energy transition. Read on for more and catch up with all of our COP29 coverage for free on Bloomberg.com.

By Siobhan Wagner

Getting from billions to trillions is a big deal. To give you an idea, one billion minutes will take up just over 1,900 years. One trillion minutes lasts for nearly 2 million years.

So getting negotiators at this year's climate talks to turn a pledge of $100 billion a year in climate finance to the developing world into something as large as $2 trillion per annum was always going to be a hard task. As we've written this week, that's why cash-strapped developed economies are looking to the private sector to contribute. Some influential voices at COP29 have also renewed calls for innovative new funding sources from levies on shipping companies to taxing business class flights.

Where to find trillions of dollars was also a running theme at Bloomberg Green's event today, held on the banks of the Caspian Sea outside the "blue zone" where official negotiations are taking place. On one of the panels, Marisa Drew, chief sustainability officer at Standard Chartered, spoke about the idea of selling carbon credits to support the early decommissioning of coal plants in the developing world.

Andrew Steer, head of the $10 billion Bezos Earth Fund, shared his view from the world of philanthropy, where money moves faster than the speed of climate diplomacy. His interest in getting those with the biggest check books around a table reflects the increasing emphasis on private capital at this meeting of nations. "We are missing a deal team for the planet," he said. You can find more of our takeaways from the event below.

By this time next week there may be a willingness to start raiding the seat cushions here at COP — which isn't that bad of an idea. There are a lot of deep pockets walking around.

Yet, if it is private finance that makes up the bulk of any agreed funding target, not everyone will consider that a win. Over the next week and a half, we'll gauge what the developing world sees as the ideal pie chart for a deal: how much is from private vs public sources or will it be mostly loans or grants or something else.

From the planet's point of view, it doesn't really matter. It just needs to be deployed immediately. We don't have a million minutes to spare.

37.4 billion

This is the estimated amount of metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted in 2024. Burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas caused CO2 releases to rise to a new record, according to a new study.

"Elections change lots of things but they don't change the laws of physics."

Andrew Steer

President and CEO of Bezos Earth Fund

Climate change isn't going away, no matter who is in power, so someone has to fix it, says Steer, who's in charge of deciding where to disperse money from Jeff Bezos' $10 billion climate and biodiversity fund.

At a one-day event in Baku on Wednesday, Bloomberg Green brought together leaders in business, finance, policy and academia to discuss everything from fixing the gap in finance for the energy transition to reaching consensus on a meaningful climate deal.

Here are some things we learned from our panelists:

Developing countries will have nothing to show for themselves in Brazil if there isn't a strong finance deal in Baku. They need the money to pledge more ambitious emissions cuts at COP30 in Belém next year, according to Rachel Kyte, special representative for climate at the UK Department for Energy Security & Net Zero. "Everybody who's here knows that if we don't get a strong and ambitious agreement on the quantifiable goal, it makes the task of next year really difficult," she said.

Musk and Trump's friendship could be good for the energy transition. "We know there's been question marks about Republicans' appetite to make EV mandates. But then you look at Elon Musk being so close to the president you wonder: Is there a narrative there that might actually benefit EVs?" said André Abadie, managing director, center for carbon transition at JPMorgan.

We are eating our way to disaster. Methane is currently the worst source of climate change and we are on "a path of destruction" with the rate the world is eating beef, said Bezos Earth Fund's Steer. The fund is backing solutions that help cows emit less methane. It's also investing in AI, which Steer said could help design tastier alternative proteins.

Don't bet money on a finance agreement. Climate negotiators have a 50.1% chance of getting a good deal at COP29, according to Avinash Persaud, special advisor on climate change to the president, Inter-American Development Bank.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV for live interviews from Baku. Chile's Climate Minister Maisa Rojas will join at 9:15am local time. A former geophysics professor and contributor to major UN climate reports, Rojas has brought a wealth of scientific expertise to her job. She'll be followed by Ambassador Gideon Behar, Israel's special envoy for climate change and sustainability at 9:30am.

It's officially Finance Day at COP on Thursday. There are a number of meetings focused on everything from disaster risk finance to carbon markets. The Presidency Pavilion (inside the blue zone) is holding an event on the role sovereign wealth funds can play in financing the energy transition. It runs from 11am-12:30pm local time.

Three years after the passing of the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, a new report from the advocacy group Transportation for America has yielded a surprising finding about the landmark Biden administration legislation. Rural, conservative states seem to be pushing through projects that will yield less carbon emissions in the long term compared to their more progressive urban counterparts.

That's not necessarily because these red states are investing in projects typically associated with greener transportation, like public transit, bike infrastructure and sidewalks. Instead, it's about what these states aren't doing — expanding highways.

In lightly populated Montana, highway expansion is not a big driver of future emissions. Photographer: Lynn Donaldson/Bloomberg

Based on projects that have been funded through the bipartisan infrastructure law so far, the report concludes that states like Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming will see a net reduction in emissions compared to the pre-IIJA baseline because they have invested big chunks of their infrastructure money toward simply fixing their existing roads with resurfacing projects. Adding new roadways, in contrast, encourages car use and car-centric land use patterns, embedding high emissions for decades.

"Perhaps surprisingly, rural states with limited budgets may be more likely to see reduced emissions compared to baseline projections than urban states, as they may be forced to prioritize repair of existing assets before spending limited funds to build new roads," reads the report, which was released on Nov. 13.

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com.

Zero is in Baku this week, where delegates and heads of state from around the world have gathered for COP29. Akshat Rathi tells producer Mythili Rao what's in store in the two weeks ahead, and COP29 President Mukhtar Babyaev explains how Azerbaijan is trying to make the summit a success, despite concerns that NGOs and protesters will have limited access to the proceedings. Listen now, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

We have to say the street cats are very photogenic here in Baku. This little fella didn't need much coaxing to sit for a portrait with our photographer Hollie Adams on the Caspian Sea promenade Wednesday.