Sunday, November 3, 2024

Brussels Edition: Lessons for the next US president

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.In a week that marks the

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

In a week that marks the start of an intensive vetting procedure for the EU's top jobs, leaders across the bloc could be forgiven for being a little distracted by what awaits them across the Atlantic. Europe's experiences over the past decade hold crucial lessons on how events might play out if Donald Trump secures a return to the White House. Even when far-right campaigns fail to take power, they often leave their mark, providing insights for Democrat Kamala Harris if she's successful. And when they succeed, they can deeply reshape a country — like in Hungary. No wonder Viktor Orban is trying to make sure he's Trump's go-to man in Europe. We take a deep look at what's happened in Europe and what both presidential candidates can learn ahead of tomorrow's knife-edge vote.

John Ainger

What's Happening

Moldovan Resilience | Moldovan President Maia Sandu declared victory in a crucial re-election bid, fending off a Russia-linked challenger in a test of the resilience of pro-EU sentiment in Europe's eastern periphery. Here's what the outcome may mean for one of the poorest places in Europe, where even local mayors can't afford to put the heating on. And here's why it matters to Moscow.

Getting Grilled | Starting this afternoon, EU lawmakers will put the next batch of key political decisionmakers through their paces to see if their up for the task of guiding the bloc through the next five years. From Spain's Teresa Ribera to Italy's Raffaele Fitto, here's a look at who is set to secure top commissioner posts.

Open Pipes | Since President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Europe has been on a mission to get rid of its Russian fossil fuel dependency. But a key pipeline route from Russia to the EU through Ukraine looks set to stay open after the end of the year, with gas buyers close to inking a deal. Markets breathed a sigh of relief.

Flood Fury | Spain ordered its biggest peace-time deployment of the military to the flood-hit region of Valencia to help citizens grappling with the country's largest natural disaster in decades. But it's doing little to quell the anger toward government, with even the King being berated by angry hecklers on a walk through the damaged city.

Around Europe

Coalition Cracks | Infighting within Germany's three-party coalition is escalating after top officials dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner's latest economic proposals. He pitched tax cuts and a slower approach to emissions reductions, suggestions that were quickly met with derision, boosting speculation that the government may fall.

Budget Reckoning | The fragile German government is also bracing for a crucial court ruling that could strip as much as €75 billion of tax income from public coffers. Here's what the Federal Constitutional Court needs to decide and what it could mean.

Road Safety | Warsaw is on course to celebrate a major achievement this year: The Polish capital is due to record the lowest rate of death on its roads since it started collecting statistics in the 1980s. Here's how it learned from Sweden to implement "Vision Zero" and ditch its reputation as one of the deadliest cities in Europe.

No Fund | UN talks on how to boost biodiversity ended abruptly as countries were unable to agree about the creation of a new global nature fund. It's a potentially worrying omen ahead of COP29 climate talks starting next week which will be all-but dominated by a singular issue: money.

Chart of the Day

Trump's victory in 2016 drove the sharpest underperformance in European equities relative to the US during any of the last eight American administrations. So what does the election mean for your European investments this time round? The protectionist policies the Republican candidate may unleash on Europe's export-reliant industries if he defeats the Democrats' Kamala Harris explain why some expect history to repeat itself in the stock market.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 2:30 p.m. European Parliament hearings with Commissioners-designate Maros Sefcovic and Glenn Micallef
  • 6:30 p.m. Hearings with Commissioners-designate Christophe Hansen and Apostolos Tzitzikostas
  • Commission Vice President Vera Jourova speaks at Transparency International event on the protection of the EU budget
  • Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis meets EIB President Nadia Calvino
  • Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels
  • EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell meets members of the government in South Korea
  • Cohesion Commissioner Elisa Ferreira participates in G-7 ministerial meeting in Rome

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