Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. For China, there was never going to be a good outcome in the US election. Donald Trump's victory, at the very least, does provide it with a bit more clarity over what the next few years might hold. His threat of 60% tariffs is looming over Beijing just as President Xi Jinping is busy trying to stabilize the economy. His latest bid to do that — a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt-swap program announced today — disappointed investors looking for more forceful fiscal policies to stem a crisis of confidence and property crunch. Still, some analysts are hoping that Trump's win means China follows that up with more stimulus. They think the president-elect's aggressive protectionist stance on trade could force Beijing's hand to spend more on its economy to boost domestic consumption, which it's been reluctant to do so far. WATCH: The US and China are locked in a battle for tech supremacy, and it's set to be a major challenge for Trump. Source: Bloomberg After being somewhat caught on the back foot when Trump kicked off his first trade war in March 2018, Chinese policymakers now have an expanded toolkit to hit back at tariffs. But they're also unlikely to unleash a hefty chunk of stimulus before Trump details his policy approach. Despite his affinity for trade levies, Trump — the self-proclaimed "Tariff Man" — might not have China at the top of his agenda. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are pressing concerns. Meanwhile, the process of doling out levies could also be relatively drawn out, with hikes potentially imposed in stages in what JPMorgan calls an "escalate to de-escalate" playbook. A deal could take a while to negotiate: The phase-one agreement during Trump's first presidency was a product of nearly two years of acrimonious talks. And there's always the possibility of some sort of crisis over Taiwan derailing any negotiations. Officials in Beijing are looking at a bruising, unpredictable four years. They may want to keep some powder dry until they know just how painful it could all get. — Rebecca Choong Wilkins Source: Bloomberg |
No comments:
Post a Comment