Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Avoiding a reversal

Bloomberg Evening Briefing Americas

US inflation remained firm in October rather than continuing its irregular descent, giving the Federal Reserve less room to maneuver in completing any soft landing. The so-called core consumer price index—which excludes food and energy costs—increased 0.3% for a third month. Over the last three months it rose at a 3.6% annualized rate, marking the fastest pace since April, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Regionally, however, the picture can vary. Phoenix and Atlanta, once inflation hotspots, are now seeing prices rise at the slowest rate among big US cities. Prices in Arizona's biggest metro increased 1.6% in October from a year earlier, a major slowdown from a peak pace of 13% in August 2022. In Atlanta, where the rate went as high as 11.7% two years ago, prices rose 1.9% in the last month. The two metro areas also exemplify the disconnect between data and public sentiment about the economy, a crucial issue for voters in the election last week. While the rate of inflation is now below the Fed's 2% target in both cities, costs of living—particularly rents—remain far higher than before the pandemic.

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While the US Senate rejected Elon Musk's pick for Senate Majority Leader (Trump acolyte Rick Scott of Florida), going instead with John Thune of South Dakota, Trump himself shook Washington by nominating former Representative Tulsi Gabbard, who has appeared to defend Russia over its war on Ukraine, for the nation's most sensitive and powerful intelligence post. Trump also tapped an equally controversial Matt Gaetz, the Florida Congressman under investigation by the House over allegations of sex trafficking (the Justice Department dropped a related criminal probe), to be US attorney general. They are the latest in a string of Trump appointments of hardline loyalists, some with limited experience, to the most senior positions in government. The GOP on Wednesday cemented its sway over all three branches of government, as it is now projected to retain control of the House.

Matt Gaetz Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The US budget deficit widened further at the start of the fiscal year, driven primarily by higher spending on health and defense as a surge in debt-interest costs slowed. The gap for the month of October was $121 billion after adjusting for calendar differences. That's 22% higher from last year after accounting for distortions from an influx of deferred tax revenue in 2023. 


Citadel has warned external recruiters not to pitch non-existent jobs following allegations that a leading headhunter misled traders at some of the world's biggest banks into sharing confidential information. Ken Griffin's investment firm has in recent weeks emailed recruiters reminding them not to divulge confidential information about Citadel, or to solicit such data from its staff.


Chinese state-sponsored hackers perpetrated a "broad and significant cyber-espionage campaign" in which they breached multiple telecommunications companies, US officials said, confirming additional details about cyberattacks with major national security implications. The hackers infiltrated the networks of multiple telecommunications companies to steal customer call records and compromise the communications belonging to a "limited number" of people in government and politics. 


Amazon is making it harder for disabled employees to get permission to work from home. The company recently told employees with disabilities that it was implementing a more rigorous vetting process. Affected workers must submit to a "multilevel leader review" and could be required to return to the office for monthlong trials to determine if accommodations meet their needs. The revised disability policy—which hasn't previously been reported—is roiling a workforce already alienated by a five-day return-to-office mandate. Meanwhile, the National Labor Relations Board ruled (in a case involving Amazon) that mandatory "captive audience" meetings are illegal. These are the gatherings where companies tell employees the alleged evils of unionization, and are one of their most potent weapons against labor organizing.


OpenAI was on the cusp of a milestone. The startup finished an initial round of training in September for a massive new artificial intelligence model that it hoped would significantly surpass prior versions of the technology behind ChatGPT and move closer to its goal of powerful AI that outperforms humans. But the model, known internally as Orion, didn't hit the company's desired performance. Indeed, Orion fell short when trying to answer coding questions that it hadn't been trained on. And OpenAI isn't alone in hitting stumbling blocks recently. After years of pushing out increasingly sophisticated AI products, three of the leading AI companies are now seeing diminishing returns from their hugely expensive efforts to build newer models. 


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