Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Australia marks time on rates before US election

Good morning, it's Harry here in Sydney, standing by as Americans cast their votes in what polls indicate could be one of the tightest races

Good morning, it's Harry here in Sydney, standing by as Americans cast their votes in what polls indicate could be one of the tightest races in modern US history. Follow our Top Live blog here for all the latest. 

Today's must-reads:
• RBA held rates at 4.35%
• Australia at of risk becoming an outlier on monetary policy 
• RBNZ warned the economy's downturn could worsen

What's happening now

Australia's central bank held interest rates at a 13-year high on Tuesday, aiming to keep up the pressure on stubbornly sticky inflation while joining much of the world in waiting for the outcome of US elections. 

The RBA is at risk of becoming an embarrassing outlier on policy, Bloomberg Opinion's Daniel Moss writes. A refusal to rule anything in or out no longer makes sense when inflation is a shadow of its former self. Time to get off the fence.

Australia's defence future remains uncertain with the leadership of our closest foreign policy ally up in the air. On Bloomberg TV's Australia Ahead, we look at the future of the 2021 Aukus Agreement with Peter Dean, US Studies Centre Director of Foreign Policy and Defence.

Peter Dean, US Studies Centre Dir. of Foreign Policy and Defence

New Zealand's pronounced economic downturn could get worse, its central bank warned. "Households have reduced their discretionary spending and businesses have put investment plans on hold," the Reserve Bank said in its semi-annual Financial Stability Report Tuesday in Wellington. "While business confidence is recovering as inflation and interest rates fall, significant further weakening in the economy remains a risk."

What happened overnight

Stocks failed to gain traction and bonds climbed, with polls continuing to indicate a tight race in the US presidential election and ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision.

Election night could become election week if the US electorate is as closely divided as polls suggest. The process of translating the collective will of the nation's voters into a mandate for the 47th US president is anything but simple.

Benjamin Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and appointed Israel Katz to replace him, the PM's office said, citing significant gaps between them over the war.

LeBron James may merge his production studio with the company behind The Kardashians series. The Los Angeles Lakers star is in talks to combine his SpringHill Co., with Fulwell 73, the British film, TV and music company behind Carpool Karaoke, according to people familiar with the matter. 

What to watch

• 8:45 a.m.: New Zealand 3Q Unemployment Rate

One more thing...

The election likely comes down to just a few spots. Only 15 US states have changed their Electoral College votes this century. About seven swing states are in play this year, and a few thousand ballots in those battlegrounds will probably decide the presidential election. One factor that could sway those crucial votes: Key states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania have seen an uneven economic recovery from the pandemic recession.

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