Crypto News: Anxious world awaits US vote

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America may be looking a little frail of late, with polarization at home and multiplying challenges to its authority from allies and foes alike.

There's still a lot riding on the outcome of the US presidential election for the world, not just in terms of political relations and the balance of trade, but in existential matters of defense and security.

It explains why foreign capitals have rarely been so open in stating their preferences, for Kamala Harris as a proxy for the continuation of Democratic President Joe Biden's policies, or for the return of Republican Donald Trump to the White House. They've also been making preparations accordingly.

Among those watching most keenly will be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, whose defense against Russia's invasion is at a tipping point.

Trump's assertion that he'd end the war immediately raises the prospect of US weapon supplies being throttled, potentially forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions. While Harris has voiced support for Kyiv, she'd likely face growing skepticism in Congress for major additional funding.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defied Biden over a cease-fire in Gaza, even while receiving US arms. Here, Trump looks more like the continuity candidate whereas Harris has suggested she'd apply more pressure to limit the conflict's humanitarian cost.

America's economy remains the world's largest, and both Biden and Trump have shown they're willing to weaponize it.

Trump's proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports and levies as high as 60% on trade with China would upend the global order. Harris would likely maintain export controls on advanced technology to China, though she'll face calls to squeeze Beijing harder, with further economic fallout.

With US democracy under real strain, the American century is showing signs of winding down. Regardless, the world will feel the impact of its political decisions for a long time yet. — Alan Crawford

WATCH: Bloomberg's Oliver Crook breaks down survey results showing who the rest of the world would likely support. Source: Bloomberg

How will markets react the day after the US election? Bloomberg's Kristine Aquino, Emily Graffeo, Norah Mulinda and Carter Johnson will dive into the data to discuss key market signals that Wall Street is watching — and will answer readers' questions. Join our Live Q&A on Nov. 6 at 1pm ET here.

The revelation last month that North Korea sent troops to bolster Russia's invasion of Ukraine is giving Chinese President Xi Jinping another headache as Beijing comes under growing international pressure to rein in two of its closest diplomatic partners. North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast in a further ratcheting up of tensions just hours ahead of the US election and a day after its foreign minister met with President Vladimir Putin.

Opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane said he plans to return to Mozambique to lead a march in the capital on Thursday amid intensifying protests over last month's disputed elections in the southeast African nation. The former lawmaker claims he won the Oct. 9 vote he said was rigged to give the ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo nearly 71% of ballots cast. "This is the proper time for revolution in Mozambique," Mondlane said in an interview.

Venâncio Mondlane. Photographer: Alfredo Zuniga/AFP/Getty Images

Estonia will push forward with plans aimed at stripping Russian and Belarusian citizens of the right to vote in local elections, in a crackdown on what the government sees as pro-Kremlin influence. About a quarter of the Baltic nation's 1.3 million population is Russian-speaking and, while most are either Estonian or stateless, an estimated 80,000 hold Russian citizenship and 3,000 are citizens of Belarus.

President Javier Milei vowed to conduct a deep purge of Argentina's diplomatic ranks after the nation voted to condemn the US embargo on Cuba at the United Nations. The routine vote cost Diana Mondino her job as foreign minister last week because it flew in the face of the global alignments with the US and Israel that Milei had laid out during last year's election campaign.

Torrential rains that triggered floods and landslides and killed hundreds of people and displaced millions across parts of Africa, Europe, Asia and the US in recent months showed the limitations of early-warning systems and emergency protocols. Scientists have warned that an accelerated water cycle is locked into the world's climate system due to past and projected greenhouse gas emissions and is irreversible.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence that his government can pull off an economic recovery while also taking an apparent shot at the US and European Union over trade.

A dramatic political rupture between India and Canada has cast a spotlight on a top confidant of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to lead the world's most populous country.

Eight men suspected of plotting to install a Nazi regime in Germany's former communist eastern states were arrested today in a massive police operation in the Saxony region that also extended into neighboring Austria and Poland.

The US arrested a Turkish national on suspicion of conspiring to violate sanctions on Venezuela oil trading in a scheme to benefit the country's state energy company, the Department of Justice said.

US intelligence agencies warn that Russia has increased its campaign to undermine the legitimacy of the US elections today and in the days and weeks ahead.

Phony videos and false information "risk inciting violence, including against election officials," according to a joint statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security.

Late last month, officials said Russian operatives were behind a fake video supposedly showing someone tearing up ballots in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. Russia has denied having anything to do with the videos.

The amount of content created and spread by operatives working for US adversaries has increased in the 2024 election compared with previous ones, according to David Salvo of the German Marshall Fund. Russia and Iran are also using a greater variety of tactics this time, including employing artificial intelligence.

One thing to watch today: The Institute of Supply Management's latest report is expected to show business activity in the services sector continued to expand in October, but at a slower pace than the previous month.

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China lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization over the EU's tariffs on Chinese electric-vehicle imports, raising the risk of greater tit-for-tat confrontation in a relationship valued at €739 billion ($806 billion) in bilateral merchandise trade last year. The Ministry of Commerce in Beijing criticized the levies as "trade protectionism," while the EU argues they're justified by the results of a probe into Chinese government subsidies that the bloc says unfairly benefit the EV sector.

The UK has spent more than a year trying to get hundreds of guns moved from floating armories that are helping Russia profit enormously from its oil trade despite widespread sanctions. Protection services provided by teams of guards paid to hop on and off ships to defend them from potential attacks in dangerous waters are routinely used by companies from many countries. Now, "we have weapons licensed by Britain guarding Russian tankers shipping oil to fund the illegal war in Ukraine," said lawmaker Liam Byrne, who heads the UK Parliament's business and trade committee.

The Vernadsky Prospect, a 250-meter long oil tanker. Photographer: Merkushev Aleksandr/Marine Traffic

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