Thursday, November 14, 2024

A risky bid to court China

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.Brazil's geography and colonial hi

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.

Brazil's geography and colonial history mean that it's traditionally looked to the Atlantic for commerce.

Now, under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the country of some 215 million is turning to the opportunities offered by the Asia Pacific, specifically China.

That's a risky signal to send as Donald Trump prepares to take office in the US on a platform that includes hitting Beijing with major new tariffs.

Lula, as Brazil's leader is known, will have an opportunity to advance his agenda during Chinese President Xi Jinping's swing through Latin America, starting this week with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru, followed by the Group of 20 summit in Brazil and a state visit to the capital, Brasilia.

Xi will be on friendly turf: While in Peru, he'll inaugurate a Chinese-owned port that will be the first on South America's Pacific coast able to handle the largest container vessels traveling directly from Asia.

Brazil and China are both founding members of BRICS, and have pushed a joint proposal to end Russia's war on Ukraine.

Brazil has replaced the US as China's largest supplier of agricultural products, while Chinese investments include BYD's most extensive electric-vehicle operation outside Asia — based in a former Ford plant.

Lula wants to expand economic ties by improving access to the Pacific, cutting the journey time to Chinese ports and bolstering Brazil's GDP. He sees an opening for Latin America's largest economy at a time when China is facing mounting obstacles to trade with the US as well as with Europe.

The risk is that he triggers a response from Trump; President Joe Biden's administration already cautioned Brazil against deeper engagement with China last month.

The question is how aggressive Trump will be in confronting allies willing to break ranks on Beijing.

Lula is about to provide the incoming US president with an early test.

A new highway being built in Brazil to connect to Peru, and on to the Pacific. Source: Divulgation/DNIT

Global Must Reads

"Call anytime you want" is Trump's message to world leaders adjusting to his modus operandi: If he wants to talk to you, it's probably going to be on the phone. The early sense from diplomats and officials around the globe is that Trump will spend even more time at his Mar-a-Lago resort and call who he wants, when he wants — protocol and national security concerns be damned. His late-night statements and spontaneous decisions require some fast thinking for those who dealt with a more controlled White House the past four years.

South Korea is rethinking the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine to help Kyiv defend against North Korean forces, a source says. Trump's election on a platform of ending Russia's war on Ukraine in short order is forcing Seoul to reconsider its stance as it weighs changing its long-standing policy of not sending lethal aid, suggesting it is less likely to supply munitions to Ukraine. Kyiv's allies meanwhile plan to pressure China at the G-20 on Pyongyang's support for Russia.

Thailand's same-sex marriage law is set to boost "rainbow tourism" by attracting 4 million more visitors annually, and generate about $2 billion in revenue when it takes effect in January, according to travel platform Agoda. Thailand is in a prime position to capture a larger slice of the LGBTQ tourism market, which accounts for 10% of tourists globally and is valued at over $200 billion annually, Agoda said.

Pride parade participants march through central Bangkok. Photographer: Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

A veil of silence has descended on Zhuhai, where 35 people were deliberately mown down by a driver on Monday in China's deadliest known act of civilian violence for years. Minutes after a delivery driver placed a bouquet of flowers by the sports stadium where the incident took place, a man in plain clothes arrived to remove them, part of an official process to erase traces of the carnage — and to the challenge it posed to Xi's system of state surveillance.

It can be risky to be an activist in Azerbaijan, which is hosting thousands of climate campaigners, scientists, diplomats, executives and world leaders for the COP29 climate summit. Those like Javid Gara, a 32-year-old self-employed electrician who runs Azerbaijan's only independent climate group, face draconian laws that restrict local civil-society groups, leading to dozens of arrests in the past decade.

Investigations are ongoing in Brazil after the death yesterday of a man who tried to enter the Supreme Court in Brasilia with explosives strapped to his body.

Sri Lanka is holding its first parliamentary elections since the victory of its outsider leftist president, with a rewrite of the country's deal with the International Monetary Fund top of the winner's in-tray.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen risks missing out on the next presidential election after prosecutors sought a five-year ban on her running for office at the end of her trial on embezzlement charges.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said the UK will introduce legislation next year to pool £1.3 trillion ($1.7 trillion) of pension savings into a series of "megafunds," seeking to replicate Australia, Canada and the US.

Washington Dispatch

Trump shocked much of Washington with his decision to nominate scandal-plagued Matt Gaetz as his attorney general.

The Florida Republican was subject to a Justice Department probe into whether he had a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old girl in exchange for money. He denied the allegations and was notified last year that he wouldn't face charges. He resigned from Congress yesterday, effectively ending a separate House inquiry into accusations that he engaged in sexual misconduct, took illicit drugs and accepted improper gifts.

The move highlighted what's become evident since the president-elect began announcing his nominations: Subservience to Trump is the main qualification for a job. It followed his selection of Tulsi Gabbard, a Ukraine-aid skeptic and a former Democrat turned fierce MAGA adherent, to run national intelligence, as well as Pete Hegseth, a combat vet and Fox News host, as secretary of defense.

Those choices showed how Trump is eager to tap the most loyal bastions of his party to carry out his agenda — and potentially clear out or pursue his opponents — in the Justice Department, the intelligence community and in the military. The big test will be whether Republicans in the Senate are willing to play along and confirm them.

One person to watch today: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will discuss global perspectives at an event in Dallas.

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Chart of the Day

Russians are facing a surge in food prices, creating a headache for President Vladimir Putin as he tries to balance his military ambitions with domestic stability. A kilogram of potatoes is at least 73% more expensive than at the start of the year, while the price of butter has jumped more than 30%, according to official data published yesterday. Russians had been struggling with rising food prices even before the latest surge — Putin was inundated with complaints while hosting a citizen call-in event last year.

And Finally

Mar-a-Lago, Trump's club in the wealthy South Florida enclave of Palm Beach, has been transformed into a hub for planning his transition to the White House. Well-wishers, job seekers and lobbyists have been jamming the marble-lined hallways while the president-elect has been holed up in his private quarters, speaking to foreign leaders and weighing picks for top roles in his administration, sources say. His election victory has magnified the immense economic and political power that has amassed on this barrier-island town an hour north of Miami.

Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

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