| Quite an image emerged from the G-20 today: Keir Starmer becoming the first UK prime minister in six years to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. It's a striking photo given those six years were not an easy time, but saw allegations that the pandemic started in a lab in China; of forced labor in Xinjiang; of China's continuing trade with Russia; and Chinese espionage in the UK. Bloomberg's Alex Wickham was in attendance in Brazil at the summit today and saw things turn chilly as Starmer raised the treatment of Hong Kong former media owner Jimmy Lai. I'm sure Starmer's team will at least be happy that their man is now on the record speaking truth to Chinese power. But despite the froideur, the Starmer photo is also unlikely to go overlooked in Mar-a-Lago, since it may ring a warning bell to Donald Trump that the UK wants to deepen economic ties with China. No matter how busy the president-elect is trying to figure out his pick for Treasury secretary, comments by Trump allies on the Labour government so far suggests they are not disinterested in their decisions. In fact, Elon Musk takes an amazingly microscopic interest in the UK.  Keir Starmer with Xi Jinping today Photographer: Stefan Rousseau/EMPPL PA Wire As Alex writes, a potential China thaw would put Starmer "at odds with the hawkish stance of US President-elect Donald Trump." Starmer told Alex and others on the flight to Brazil yesterday that: "Given the size of the economy, it is very important that we have a pragmatic and serious relationship [with China]." So, which president do we pick? Starmer is right about the financial significance: Even Tories who are uncomfortable at the sight of Starmer and Xi shaking hands accept it is desirable to have dialogue with China given its economic might. But, as Alex says: " [C]loser ties with Beijing do not come without difficulty for Starmer. The move will provide an early test of the UK government's tricky relationship with the incoming Trump administration." A quick glance at government figures show that the UK exported £191.5 billion of exports in goods and services to the US in 2023. £31.5 billion went to China – making up 3.6% of the total, which is about the same as what went to Switzerland. These numbers do not dictate that we should be supine to other world leaders, but they do make you want to know what the strategy is. Because so many of our exports are services, there are hopes that the UK can avoid the worst of the coming trade war. Or perhaps the government is trying to parlay a new closeness with China to get the US to realize what they might be missing, and that they should want to keep us in their sphere of influence? China is not above using its heft. Remember how Chinese hackers turned on the Australian government after their prime minister called for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid? But, to state the obvious, a Trump government is not going to be shy about throwing its weight around either. As Alex points out, during the first Trump term the UK came under pressure to take a tougher stance against Huawei's role in Britain's 5G network— and ultimately relented. When forced to choose the last time, London chose Washington over Beijing. You can see why Xi will have agreed to today's photo op with Starmer, to show the US that their allies are shopping around. Rachel Reeves has suggested she's going to visit China next year, too. Let's hope Labour know what they are doing. Women, Money & Power: We will convene the most influential female voices in finance on December 10 in London to discuss the future of investing, asset management and banking — as well as the role of women as consumers, owners and CEOs. Speakers include Banco Santander Executive Chair Ana Botín, Revolut UK CEO Francesca Carlesi and Man Group CEO Robyn Grew. Request an invitation here. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. | 
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