Friday, November 1, 2024

Barriers to peace

Israeli curbs and settlements in the West Bank are complicating the prospects for an independent Palestinian state.

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Benjamin Netanyahu's government, the most nationalist in Israel's history, is growing a network of physical and virtual barriers in the West Bank that makes it increasingly difficult for the 3 million Palestinians living there to move around and work.

Those curbs, along with plans for more Jewish Israeli settlements that are illegal under international law, also complicate the prospects of an independent Palestinian state one day.

The territory's changing geographic, social and economic landscape means the path to statehood, as outlined in past peace accords, has never looked so far away.

Extra restrictions, road blocks and raids by Israeli forces mean travel within the West Bank, for decades seen as the core of any future Palestinian state including Gaza, is more of a hassle and more hazardous than it has been in decades.

Palestinians survey a destroyed pavement following an Israeli raid in Nur Shams in March. Photographer: Sergey Ponomarev/Getty Images Europe

Around 150,000 Palestinians are no longer able to work in Israel. It's having a crushing effect on the West Bank's economy and also hurting Israel's construction industry. Before Hamas' attack on Israel from Gaza last year, around one-third of people on Israeli building sites were Palestinian.

Netanyahu and his ministers justify the ratcheting up of obstacles, surveillance and raids as key to protecting Israel from ever experiencing another attack like the one on Oct. 7, 2023.

At least 767 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since then — the highest toll in the territory in a calendar year, according to local health officials. Israel says most of the dead were rioters, gunmen killed in shootouts, and militants.

Critics of Israel's government say its plan is to make it impossible for a Palestinian state to take root. Some of Netanyahu's far-right coalition members openly call for annexing the West Bank and Gaza.

So far, the former territory has avoided the kind of chaos that many observers thought would be unleashed by the war in Gaza. But there's a real risk that a new generation in the West Bank, too, will be radicalized by Israel's actions.

Israeli soldiers in the West Bank last month. Photographer: Mosab Shawer/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris seized on a remark from Donald Trump that he would "protect" women if elected — whether they "like it or not" — to assail her Republican rival's stance on reproductive rights and other freedoms in an appeal to suburban and independent women.

Both campaigns are making last-ditch efforts to identify and mobilize potential supporters in the final days before what's likely to be another incredibly close election — Black women in Georgia, Latino men in Nevada or working class White people in Pennsylvania. People of Indian descent, now the biggest Asian-American group in the US, have become a compelling target as the cohort takes on a more prominent role in politics.

Russia's army is gaining speed in its advance in eastern Ukraine, seizing more land last week than at any point this year and increasing pressure on Kyiv's US and European allies to bolster its defenses. The gain of more than 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) builds on territory taken in a grinding summer offensive that's adding to deepening despondency in Ukraine about the course of the war.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves sought to reassure investors after the scale of borrowing implied in her budget plans prompted a selloff in UK bonds. The Labour government's No. 1 commitment is to "economic and fiscal stability," Reeves said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, arguing that she had put Britain's public finances "on a stable and a solid trajectory."

Affinity for the US in China is fading fast. The increased vitriol and suspicion emanating from Americans since Trump entered the White House nearly eight years ago is quickly eroding an advantage for the US: soft power influence among China's 1.4 billion people. It's also creating a wider chasm that risks pushing the nations further toward a devastating clash as tensions rise over AI chips, Russia's war in Ukraine and Taiwan.

A severe brain drain in Pakistan is hollowing out one of the world's most populous nations during its most tumultuous period in decades, pushing out accomplished citizens across industries and starving banks, hospitals and multinationals of talent and resources.

Botswana's president conceded defeat in this week's parliamentary elections, a shock outcome for Mokgweetsi Masisi that ends his party's 58-year grip on power in the diamond-rich southern African nation.

Singapore's government ramped up criticism of Lee Hsien Yang, who was recently granted asylum in the UK, accusing him of seeking to tarnish the city-state with an "international smear campaign."

The US and South Korea conducted joint air drills in a show of force after North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that flew longer than any previous test by Kim Jong Un's regime, adding to the tensions over its dispatch of troops to Russia.

Washington Dispatch

Republican lawmakers stepped up their campaign to pressure colleges including Harvard, Northwestern and Columbia to take a stronger stance against antisemitism with a report that scrutinizes their responses to protests that erupted after last year's Hamas attack on Israel.

The 325-page document released by the House Education and the Workforce committee sought to expose what it presented as failures by elite schools to adhere to their own rules. The committee gathered more than 400,000 pages of text messages, emails and documents, some collected by subpoena.

"For over a year, the American people have watched antisemitic mobs rule over so-called elite universities, but what was happening behind the scenes is arguably worse," US Representative Virginia Foxx, a North Carolina Republican who chairs the committee, said yesterday.

One thing to watch today: Forecasters anticipate that the final monthly jobs report before the election will show a steady unemployment rate even as storms and strikes put a temporary dent in hiring.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin's push toward a record high is fizzling as Trump's election odds drop in betting markets. The digital asset sank below $69,000 today after sliding 4% — the most in a month — in the US a day earlier. Bitcoin has been dubbed a Trump trade because of the former president's tight embrace of the crypto industry, which spent big on promoting its agenda during campaigning.

And Finally

Floods that killed more than 150 people in eastern Spain this week were caused by a storm that dumped a year's worth of rainfall in less than 24 hours. The tragedy has raised questions about whether earlier warnings could have prevented so many deaths, while the widespread damage shows how many cities aren't adapted to withstand rainfall amplified by climate change.

Cars piled in the street following floods in the Sedaví area of Valencia on Wednesday. Photographer: David Ramos/Getty Images Europe

Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which former president was accused by his country's government of shooting at police after refusing to stop at a checkpoint? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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Tariff toll

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg's newsletter on the future of the auto world. Read today's featured story in full online here.Chine

Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg's newsletter on the future of the auto world. Read today's featured story in full online here.

Setting Back Sales

Chinese electric-car makers lost ground in Europe for a third straight month, in the latest sign that the move toward higher import tariffs is hurting sales.

Chinese brands captured an 8.5% share of EV deliveries across the European region in September, down from 9.6% in the year-earlier period, based on figures provided by researcher Dataforce.

SAIC Motor's MG unit led the drop, with a 42% slide in sales, according to Jato Dynamics, which also tracks the automotive market.

The declines have persisted since July, when the EU introduced provisional duties on Chinese-made EVs, bringing import fees to as high as 45%. After months of talks failed to resolve the trade dispute, the new tariffs entered force this week.

The EU ultimately decided not to collect the provisional duties, and officials from the bloc are headed to Beijing in a last-ditch attempt to find a resolution, Bloomberg News reported this week.

The biggest loser to date has been MG, the British brand now part of Chinese state-owned SAIC. It drew the highest EU tariffs, with a surcharge of 35% on top of the existing 10% import duty.

Once the undisputed leader among Chinese brands in Europe, it now is being challenged by BYD, a powerful newcomer to the region that's making a strong bid to establish a foothold.

Despite the trade tensions, China's biggest maker of EVs and hybrid-electric vehicles has forged ahead, hiring local executives and planning factories in the region. BYD's European registrations jumped 162% in September from a year earlier, to 4,376 vehicles, according to Jato.

All EVs produced in China are subject to the new tariffs, including those made by Western brands. Major European carmakers argued against imposing them, and Germany was one of five countries to vote against the duties.

While China has threatened to retaliate, its Ministry of Commerce has expressed hopes for an acceptable resolution. If not, countermeasures could begin as soon as this month. The outcome of the US election could also shape debates over protectionism going forward.

Across Europe, sales of battery-electric vehicles by all manufacturers increased 14% during September, based on data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. That made the EV segment a relative bright spot in an otherwise slumping auto market.

Deliveries jumped 24% in the UK, as carmakers heavily discounted EVs to comply with a zero-emissions vehicle sales mandate. In Germany, where the government is discussing the potential of new incentives, EV sales increased 8.7%.

According to Jato, Tesla's Model Y and Model 3 were the top-selling EVs in the region for September. The Skoda Enyaq placed third, while Volvo Car's EX30 came in fourth. The Swedish brand is owned by Geely and makes the EX30 in China.

— By Anthony Palazzo 

News Briefs

Before You Go

Uber signage on a vehicle in New York in August. Photographer: Yuki Iwamura/Bloomberg

Uber reported weaker-than-expected ride bookings and issued a tepid forecast, sending its shares down the most in two years. The results will likely stoke concern from investors that its core US rideshare business isn't keeping pace during the holiday period. For years, the company has been investing into new areas across both its ride-hailing and delivery businesses in the US and abroad, where it's seen stronger growth. More recently, it's added transportation options to its platform including taxis, carpools and shuttles to airports and other venues.

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The London Rush: Boohoo Snubs Mike Ashley

Boohoo appoints Debenhams boss as CEO

Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today's top business stories.

Mike Ashley, known for his fiesty boardroom battles, isn't a man to easily concede.

Despite the Frasers owner's public bid to be made CEO of Boohoo Group, which owns Debenhams, Warehouse and PrettyLittleThing, the company has gone in another direction.

Dan Finley has been chosen to run the struggling retail group. Finley has been CEO of Debenhams since 2022, turning it from a high-street department store to online business. Before that, he spent a decade at JD Sports.

Boohoo's board was unanimous in its decision, as deputy chairman Alistair McGeorge was quick to point out. 

But Ashley could still secure the top job. His request for a shareholder meeting stands, where he'd have the opportunity to put forward a motion to make himself CEO and join the board.

Frasers Group remains Boohoo's largest shareholder, which means that CEO or not, the billionaire isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

House prices barely rose in October, by a less-than-expected 0.1%. It suggests the property market was already losing momentum before the budget, which could add further setbacks.

Rachel Reeves attempted to calm the markets after a post-budget bond sell off, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. She said the top commitment is "economic and fiscal stability." (Morwenna from Markets Today details the market moves below.)

Meanwhile, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds admitted that tax hikes may hit hiring and salaries. That's a worry of leading CEOs, who signalled tepid support for the budget.

As markets and business digest the news, Bloomberg Opinion's Matthew Brooker argues that getting rid of the "archaic" non-dom tax regime is something to cheer: "It was high time it met its Waterloo."

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: Helpful History

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

Yesterday's sell-off in gilts prompted a lot of comparisons to the aftermath of the infamous Liz Truss mini-budget — and fortunately for Chancellor Rachel Reeves they were favourable.  The yield on the two-year gilt rose as much as 20 basis points on Thursday, but that was nowhere near the outsized move seen back in Truss' day.  

Still, the market response to Reeves's borrowing plans and changes to the fiscal rules are still a hit to Labour's claim to have restored stability to Britain's finances. And were it not for the market chaos in the autumn of 2022 — which was exacerbated by a leveraged pension fund strategy which has since been dealt with — the historical comparisons would not look so good. 

If the yield on the 2-year government bond rises again today, it will mark 10 straight days of increases — which Bloomberg data shows would be the longest since 2006.

Morwenna Coniam

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

Earnings are still in full swing next week. Highlights include the airline industry (Ryanair, Wizz Air, IAG, Rolls-Royce), housing (Rightmove and Persimmon), and retail (Sainsbury, M&S, AB Foods, ASOS and Boohoo).

Stealing the show, however, will be the Bank of England's rate decision on Thursday. Expectations are for a cut to 4.75%.

$ports Report

Hi, I'm Maddie

Following a successful investment summit, the UK government quietly held another one last week focused on women's sport. But maybe it was too quiet; the government, which pledged to make the UK the "top destination for women's sport investment," is still unwilling to disclose how much was raised.

The summit heralded the foreign ownership of clubs like the London City Lionesses and emphasised the potential for multinational portfolios, confirming what Bloomberg has previously reported: most British clubs simply aren't invested in women's sport. Even top teams seem uncertain; Manchester United for example allowed captain Katie Zelem and Lioness Mary Earps to leave the club on free transfers in the summer.

While a debate — and expected regulation — swirls in men's football around the ownership of foreign clubs, it appears that the government is backing the opposite approach for women's sport. We're headed for a world where multi-club and multi-national owners such businesswoman Michele Kang and investment group Mercury/13 are transforming teams across the world. That indicates foreign ownership may be the way forward for elite women's sport in the UK.

Maddie Parker

For more on the Business of Sport, check out the team's Friday newsletter.

Pub Quiz

Which TV channel has been fined £100,000 by the regulator for breaching impartiality rules when hosting a debate with then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak? (They're appealing the decision.)

[Yesterday's answer: Starbucks' CEO has promised the return of sharpies for baristas to write on cups, as one way to reboot the struggling coffee chain.]

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Barriers to peace

Israeli curbs and settlements in the West Bank are complicating the prospects for an independent Palestinian state. View in ...