Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Xi keeps his powder dry

Xi Jinping is holding back some of his economic firepower until after the US election.

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The invitation to a briefing by China's top economic planner today said it would be about "incremental policies." It stuck to its word.

In the first major press conference with the regulator since Beijing's surprise stimulus blitz late last month, officials vowed to meet the nation's goal of around 5% growth this year but didn't come up with much else. No mention of fiscal support. No details of help for beleaguered consumers struggling with a years-long property crisis.

The National Development and Reform Commission doesn't have a mandate to announce new spending plans. That didn't matter much to the markets — one key stock index halved its gains during the briefing as it became clear there would be no fresh news.

It's small wonder that investors were expecting more fireworks though. Policymakers have been showing an unusual level of urgency and state media has been talking up consumer and market sentiment during the so-called Golden Week holidays.

Source: International Monetary Fund

All that leaves us roughly where we started. It's still unclear just how much fiscal heft Beijing is willing to throw behind its plan for stimulus.

The trouble is investors — already stinging from a series of "false dawns" spurred by promises about the economy — don't have much tolerance for uncertainty right now.

But there's a very good reason for President Xi Jinping to hold back on just how much firepower he's prepared to release: the US election.

Chinese officials are worried about what a Donald Trump victory next month would mean for them, especially if it leads to the imposition of a 60% across-the-board tariff he's threatened.

Until there's clarity over the prospect of another Trump presidency, a step-by-step approach may very well suit Beijing best.

WATCH: Zheng Shanjie, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the government is confident it can fully achieve its economic goals. Source: Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is traveling to Washington for discussions with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, as the Middle East nation weighs how to respond to the latest Iranian missile attack. President Joe Biden has urged Israel not to strike Iran's nuclear program or oil infrastructure, amid concerns either move could trigger a wider war that drags in the US, pushes up energy prices and damages the global economy.

US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris declined to say if she would support Ukraine's push to join NATO if elected, telling CBS News' 60 Minutes that Washington was focused on helping Kyiv defend itself against Russia's invasion. The topic is expected to loom large when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Biden and other world leaders meet this week in Germany.

The UK Labour Party's campaign pledge to hike taxes on private equity and ultra-rich "non-dom" residents to fund key spending plans is meeting reality now that it's in power. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is reviewing how to implement both pledges after an internal Treasury analysis showed the moves could end up costing the Exchequer money. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's sudden appointment of Morgan McSweeney to replace Sue Gray as his chief of staff underscored how much the government, after just three months in office, was already in need of a full reset.

Reeves is assessing whether to change her plans. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's longest-serving post-war prime minister, has the gravitational force to shape his country's politics even from beyond the grave. His two eldest children are working to restore his Forza Italia party to its former glory after being relegated to the role of junior partner in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition. Yet some observers have questioned whether the billionaire's heirs are ready to move out of their corporate comfort zone.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party appeared to be in a tight contest in local elections in two northern provinces, defying exit polls that predicted losses in both. The BJP pulled off a surprise lead in the northern state of Haryana in early vote-counting, while the opposition was ahead in Jammu and Kashmir.

Mexico's Supreme Court has agreed to review the judicial overhaul passed by Congress last month that critics say threatens the body's independence, a source says.

Kenyan Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua refused to quit and said he'd appear at the National Assembly today to defend himself in an impeachment process over allegations he violated the constitution.

Tunisian President Kais Saied won a second term in an election snubbed by more than two-thirds of eligible voters, as discontent rises over his authoritarian style of governance in the cradle of the Arab Spring.

Romania's ruling coalition came close to collapse less than two months before presidential and general elections, as a junior party protested a top court decision to remove a far-right candidate from the presidential race.

Washington Dispatch

During a visit to the battleground state of Wisconsin today, Biden will announce a plan to switch out all lead pipes in the country over the next 10 years, pledging an additional $2.6 billion from the Environmental Protection Agency to improve drinking water.

Biden will appear in Milwaukee, where $30 million from his hallmark infrastructure law to replace lead pipes is accelerating the timeline for completion from 60 years, according to the White House.

The administration is highlighting multi-million-dollar investments to finish the operation in many other cities within a decade, including Detroit, Pittsburgh and Denver. In other cities like Benton Harbor, Michigan, and Edgerton, Wisconsin, the program has been completed.

The move comes 10 years after reports of lead contamination of the drinking water in Flint, Michigan, focused attention on the hazard.

One person to watch today: Harris will be interviewed by Howard Stern and appear on "The View" talk show.

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Chart of the Day

Having slapped tariffs on everything from steel to Scotch whisky during his presidency, Trump is repeating the script as he runs for reelection, proposing a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports that would be imposed above yet more duties on Chinese goods. The Biden administration kept Trump's China tariffs and sought to limit the country's access to advanced chip technologies, policies Harris appears set to maintain if she wins in November. Read the Big Take to see how the experience of two US towns shows just how surprising the consequences can be for the industries supposedly being protected.

And Finally

Hurricane Milton is set to approach the Florida peninsula as a potentially catastrophic Category 4 storm, bearing down on a region still struggling to recover from the devastation wrought by Helene. While Milton could be capable of collapsing homes, flattening trees and triggering power outages, it's difficult for hurricanes to maintain their maximum strength for long, so winds may drop as it nears Florida's west coast.

Hurricane Milton yesterday. Source: CIRA/RAMMB

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