Thursday, October 17, 2024

Why you should cut your cash exposure now

You know better than to buy high and sell low. And right now, markets are high. The S&P 500 is near its peak. On Monday, it recorded its 46t
by Charlie Wells

You know better than to buy high and sell low. And right now, markets are high. The S&P 500 is near its peak. On Monday, it recorded its 46th all-time high of 2024. The Nasdaq is up 33% from a year ago, the Russell 2000 some 30%. 

These records come paired with another reality: Lots of Americans are still parked in cash. A record $6.47 trillion has piled up into US money-market funds, with some $11 billion of that flowing in as recently as last week. But staying in cash is becoming less appealing. Interest rates are going down. Customers of Goldman Sachs' popular high-yield savings account found that out recently. If money is earning less in savings accounts, where might it go next?

"If you think the stock market is expensive right now, there is still a lot of cash that isn't even participating yet," explains Elliot Pepper, financial planner and director of tax at Northbrook Financial in Baltimore. "If you've got time on your side, then I would say buckle up and jump into the stock market before all that other cash that's sitting there starts to."

Of course, Pepper and other advisers say that's easier said than done. (They also caution that it needs to be done carefully, with your individual circumstances taken into consideration.)

Quitting cash is proving especially hard for a certain set of Gen Z and Millennial investors. They never really collected yield from savings accounts in the years following the financial crisis and have loved the ease, stability and return they got from cash in recent years. 

"A lot of my younger clients had the mindset — and still do really — of, 'Well, why would I invest and get 7% on average if I can just leave it in cash at 5%?,'" says Georgia Lord, head of financial planning at Corbett Road Wealth Management in McLean, Virginia. "The thing is, that was never permanent."

Advisers have two very general steers for investors looking to pivot away from cash, and they depend on age. Younger investors, with time to recover from downturns and a high opportunity cost of staying out of the market, should look to gain stock exposure.

Dennis Nolte, a senior vice president and financial adviser at Seacoast Bank in Winter Park, Florida likes the look of undervalued, out-of-favor and non-record-setting asset classes like energy, small cap domestic, and international markets. He recommends dollar-cost averaging into the market, which means taking the lump sum you'd like to invest and then dividing it up by, say, 12. You then invest that amount into the market over as many months to help you buy into at least some dips. 

If you're looking for even more inspiration, take a look at our latest iteration of "Where to Invest $10,000." It has great suggestions for people who might want to branch out, including dividend-paying stocks, AI-themed ETFs and industrials.

Anora Gaudiano, vice president and financial adviser at Wealthspire in New York City says you should "work backward" to figure out your prime asset allocation. For younger investors in particular, remember that your emergency fund, as well as expenses coming up in the 1-3 year range, really don't belong in stocks. Advisers prefer you keep those in high-yield savings accounts to keep risk at a minimum and liquidity at a maximum.

Readers closer to retirement, I haven't forgotten about you. Advisers say they understand your concerns: Cash gave you nice returns recently, minus the risk you don't want to take on heading into retirement. Their pitch for you right now is to consider laddering certificates of deposit (CDs). You open CDs of different maturities, allowing you to lock in today's rates, but also to hedge against declines.

I feel like many of you know the broad contours of this stuff already. But with the economic season changing, maybe you just need a little reminder. That gets at something I asked Sarah Behr, founder of Simplify Financial in San Francisco, earlier this week. I called it "financial inertia," or the idea that people have a hard time changing once they've made big financial decisions. 

"I say 'Inertia is a powerful force' 10 times a week," Behr told me. "I think many people hire me as a financial adviser because they're stuck in cash and crippled by indecision but they realize something has to change." — Charlie Wells

P.S. Giving you valuable information matters to us. Send questions about your own financial decisions to bbgwealth@bloomberg.net. We may get expert answers for you, and feature your question and the answer in an upcoming newsletter.

Market Moves

Shares of Morgan Stanley soared the most in four years this week after the bank reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. Revenue from the bank's trading business rose 13%, according to a statement Wednesday. That followed gains recorded by Morgan Stanley's biggest rivals as the markets business lifted fortunes across the industry and a rebound in dealmaking fueled higher investment-banking fees.

Bitcoin has been edging closer to $70,000. Bulls are setting their sights on the record highs reached in March with optimism building around riskier assets and the looming US elections. Adding to the optimism is a pledge this week from Vice President Kamala Harris to support a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The acknowledgment follows years of complaints from the crypto sector that US officials have chosen a path of regulation through enforcement rather than by providing clarity. Former President Donald Trump has also actively sought crypto voters during the current presidential race.

Wealth Gains

The biggest gainers and losers on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index over the past week:

Aliko Dangote is the biggest gainer this week now that his long-awaited Nigerian oil refinery is up and running. The Dangote Refinery outside Lagos is the biggest single-train oil refinery in the world and one of the most complex. It has more than doubled his net worth to $27.8 billion.

Bernard Arnault was the biggest loser in dollar terms, shedding $20.4 billion and seeing his net worth drop to $195.7 billion. (He is still the world's fifth-richest person, according to the index.) Arnault is the chairman of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton. Shares of the firm dropped this week after it reported its first dip in sales of fashion and leather goods since the pandemic.

Real Estate Watch

How to Refinance Your Mortgage

The time to refinance and secure a lower mortgage rate has arrived — for some. Applications to refinance mortgages started to pick up after the Federal Reserve cut rates in September.

Photographer: Nathan Howard/Bloomberg

While declining rates may seem enticing, financial experts caution borrowers to make sure they know what kind of option works best — or whether they should even refinance their mortgage in the first place. My colleague put together this really helpful guide on how borrowers should navigate a potential refi.  

Billionaire Ken Griffin's Penthouse Finds a Buyer — For a Loss

The Citadel founder has found a buyer for one of his luxury properties in Chicago after cutting the asking price to half of what he originally paid.

His penthouse at No. 9 Walton in Chicago went under contract for an undisclosed amount, according to Zillow. The 7,500-square-foot (670-square-meter) unit on the 38th floor, a residence that Griffin never lived in and was marketed as unfinished, was listed for $11 million in July. If the deal closes at or near that price, it would mark a loss for Griffin, who paid roughly $21 million for the property in 2017, according to Cook County records.

Know Anyone Who…?

This week, we're looking for people who are picking up on new trends in the workplace. What are you noticing about your Gen Z colleagues? Office culture post-pandemic? Strange work-from-home behavior from your bosses? We want to hear your stories. 

Some of our best journalism at Bloomberg Wealth comes from your own stories and we'd love to hear from you, your friends or clients. Please email bbgwealth@bloomberg.net or fill out this form.

Don't Miss

Bloomberg Tech

Humanity has always relied on technology to drive growth. With the emergence of artificial intelligence, society is being asked to trust tech with economies, media and health like never before. Join visionaries, investors and business leaders in London on Oct. 22 to discuss the risks and rewards of this new age. Speakers include Ed Bussey, CEO of Oxford Science Enterprises; Christophe Fouquet, President & CEO of ASML; Tom Hale, CEO of ŌURA; and Rhiannon White, CEO of Clue. Plus don't miss the opportunity to interact with NEURA Robotics' humanoid 4NE-1. Buy tickets today.

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