Thursday, October 10, 2024

UK Tories lurch to the right

The UK's opposition Conservatives are following Europe in lurching to the right.

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After Keir Starmer's big win for Labour this summer, it looked like UK politics might settle down following years of Brexit-induced turbulence.

The Conservative leadership race has just blown that notion away.

Tory lawmakers — their much reduced number adjusting to life in opposition — unexpectedly knocked out the centrist candidate to lead the party yesterday and narrowed the contest down to two right wingers.

Kemi Badenoch, the self-styled "anti-woke" candidate, relishes a fight, most recently criticizing maternity pay as "excessive" and saying that some civil servants should be in jail.

Robert Jenrick has crafted an image as an immigration hardliner, resigning from Rishi Sunak's government saying the former prime minister wasn't going far enough.

Either candidate could help the Tories chase voters lost to Reform UK, the party of chief Brexit advocate and Donald Trump acolyte Nigel Farage.

Kemi Badenoch. Photographer: Darren Staples/Bloomberg

Regardless of who wins, the Conservatives are about to lurch further to the right.

The Tory trajectory mirrors developments across Europe, from Austria's dabbling with the far right to success for populist parties in Germany and the Netherlands.

True, Labour has a huge majority and is only three months in office, so the Conservatives aren't about to return to power.

Yet a series of missteps by Starmer raise questions over his judgment that could negatively impact voter perception from the get-go.

The UK's dire finances mean the new government will struggle to avoid either angering those voters it won over to secure its landslide, or failing to bring about the change that Starmer campaigned on.

All of which leaves an opening for a pugilistic opposition leader with a populist bent to land blows and shape the debate, especially on immigration.

More than eight years after turmoil was unleashed by the Brexit referendum to leave the European Union, things could be about to get stormy in Britain again.

Robert Jenrick. Photographer: Darren Staples/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

US President Joe Biden has warned Israel against attacking Iran's nuclear sites, and US officials worry a strike on its energy infrastructure could roil markets. But with Israeli retaliation against Iran expected at any time, Washington is finding it has few assurances against further escalation.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy said any sign of weakness from Ukraine's Western allies may embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin as he kicked off a three-day tour of European countries to rally support for his plan to end the war. The Ukrainian president told reporters in Croatia yesterday that he plans to meet the leaders of the UK, France, Italy and Germany.

A record number of senior Chinese officials has been ensnared in the sweeping anti-corruption campaign President Xi Jinping has used to discipline the ruling Communist Party and eliminate political rivals since taking office in 2012. China's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong vowed at the start of the year to show "no mercy" in fighting graft in critical sectors like finance, energy, pharmaceutical and infrastructure.

When delegates from around the world meet in Baku, Azerbaijan, at COP29 next month they will face a key question: Will rich nations find a way to meet developing countries' demand for up to $1 trillion each year in climate finance? In our Zero podcast, Avinash Persaud, special adviser on climate change for the Inter-American Development Bank, outlines the kinds of instruments and commitments that can help poorer countries contribute to the energy transition and adapt to a warmer world.

The fight over finance brewing at COP29: Moving Money

Lina Khan, the chair of the US Federal Trade Commission, has come under fire from a bipartisan club of tech figures for her tough stance against giant companies, many of whom have asked Vice President Kamala Harris not to keep her on if she wins the November election. Scrutinizing mergers and taking on the likes of Amazon and Facebook parent Meta for alleged anticompetitive practices, Khan, 35, has become the face of a fresh backlash against concentrated corporate power.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te vowed to stand up to the challenges posed by China, prompting a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman in Beijing to declare that Lai's government cannot "stop the historic trend that China will and must achieve reunification."

Democratic Republic of Congo is courting new investors for its abundant deposits of key metals as it looks to diversify ownership in its China-dominated industry, Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba told us in an interview.

The EU and China must continue talks to avoid an escalation of protectionist measures that would lead to a "lose-lose" situation, Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo told Bloomberg Television.

Hurricane Milton is moving across central Florida after making landfall near Tampa with tree-snapping winds and heavy rain, raising the threat of widespread flooding and power outages affecting millions. Track the storm live here.

WATCH: Hurricane Milton makes landfall on Florida's west coast. Source: APTN

Washington Dispatch

Donald Trump has littered his presidential campaign with proposals to lower taxes. So far, he's pledged to put tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits beyond the reach of the Internal Revenue Service. And he champions the renewal of his 2017 tax overhaul.

Yesterday, he had an offer for Americans living abroad: "I support ENDING the Double Taxation of overseas Americans!" US citizens, regardless of where they live, have to file tax information with the IRS and some expatriates are required to pay US taxes, in addition to levies in the country where they reside.

The State Department estimates that roughly 9 million Americans live abroad, and the former president's plan could reduce paperwork and, potentially, cut tax bills.

That doesn't mean it will be enacted, even if he wins. Earlier this week, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said that tax and spending proposals by both Trump and Harris "would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels projected under current law."

One thing to watch today: Data for September are expected to show inflation continues to recede toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

France's new government will today unveil its initial course of shock therapy to tackle a swelling budget deficit in a bid to reassure skeptical bond investors and navigate opposition in a fractured parliament. If Prime Minister Michel Barnier fails to convince the markets, the nation's debt costs could spiral. But if he can't persuade parliament, his minority government could be toppled.

And Finally

For years, Bolivia was seen as a rare example of a Latin American socialist country that had managed the elusive combination of economic growth, low inflation and declining poverty. The political capital La Paz is a monument to those achievements. The world's largest cable-car network connects the city's cliffs and canyons at 12,000 feet (3,659 meters) above sea level. The gleaming presidential tower soars 25 stories over downtown and a giant legislative headquarters can be spotted from all over the city. It was all paid for by a boom in natural-gas exports. Then it all imploded.

Cable cars above La Paz. Photographer: Marcelo Perez del Carpio/Bloomberg

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