Thursday, October 24, 2024

The specter of Trump’s tariffs looms

Listening to chatter at the IMF meetings

With less than two weeks until Election Day, it's hard to escape speculation about who might hold the White House come January. Enda Curran has his ear to the ground in Washington to hear what visiting leaders are saying. Plus: Amanda Mull on why print magazines are still valuable to advertisers and publishers, even if that value has changed. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up.

Like returning swallows, every year in the fall finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world descend on Washington to swap notes on interest rates, inflation and more, a kind of speed dating for spreadsheet nerds.

Except this year. Although the official agenda at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's annual meetings is dominated by dry policy talks, the huddled conversations and corridor discussions are all laser-focused on one issue: Donald Trump.

That's because the visiting financial diplomats reckon that a win for Vice President Kamala Harris would represent policy continuity from the Biden administration and, by extension, less of a shock for the global economy. A win for former President Trump would be a whole other story given his threats to impose goods tariffs of 60% on China and as much as 20% on everyone else.

The IMF has used this week's meetings to warn that the election is creating "high uncertainty" for markets and policymakers, given the sharply divergent trade priorities of the candidates.

Christine Lagarde. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg

It's not that the visitors to DC are taking sides—they're at pains not to—but they're making clear their concerns, through guarded-diplomatic speak. European Central Bank Chief Christine Lagarde said whoever wins the election should beware of hurting global trade.

"Periods of restrictions and barriers have not been periods of prosperity and strong leadership around the world, so whoever in this country is ultimately the president, I think, should at least bear that in mind," Lagarde said during an event Wednesday at the Atlantic Council.

Germany's finance minister, Christian Lindner, had a similar message. "Every kind of trade conflict harms both sides," he told Bloomberg Television.

Comments like those are a reminder that when swing voters in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania cast their ballot, it will reverberate throughout the global financial and trading system. Both Trump and Harris are statistically tied among likely voters in each of the seven swing states in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.

Tim Adams, head of the Institute of International Finance, captured the conversation that's going on inside all the blacked-out SUVs with diplomatic license plates around town. When it comes to the IMF and World Bank, he says, "people are anxious because Trump has made a lot of big proposals, and what he proposes, especially for this crowd this week, is counter to the 80 years of the Bretton Woods Institutions."

In Brief

Yes, a Digital Story About the Revival of Print

A view inside Soho News International, one of the remaining magazine shops in New York City with a cult following. Photographer: Ryan Duffin for Bloomberg Businessweek

I'd love to tell you that reports of print media's death have been greatly exaggerated, but the truth is a little more complicated. Many of the publications that crowded newsstands and mailboxes 20 years ago have indeed closed entirely, and almost all the rest have changed their business models as readers and advertising dollars have moved online, usually by reducing their publication frequency or going fully digital. Condé Nast, once the most powerful magazine publisher in the world and home to more than two dozen print publications at its peak, is "no longer a magazine company," according to a 2022 declaration by its chief executive officer, Roger Lynch; it now prints only eight titles. Changes have, of course, come to the magazine you're currently reading as well: Bloomberg Businessweek publishes every day online, and in July, we relaunched with a monthly print edition after 94 years as a weekly.

The old model of print is certainly gone, along with the massive circulation numbers and cultural ubiquity that the format enjoyed before the internet upended media and left us with supermarket-checkout-line gossip rags and "bookazines" of low-carb recipes. But an opportunity remains for magazines, business models be damned, and some publishers and brands seem to be figuring it out. Several titles across genres, including Field & Stream, Nylon, Saveur, Sports Illustrated and Vice, have committed to restarting their previously abandoned physical products in 2024. Small, print-forward indie publications, such as Apartamento, Bitter Southerner, the Drift and HommeGirls, continue to eke out space in their respective niches, and they've been joined by dozens of print upstarts every year since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

All of this may seem counterintuitive, but it makes more sense if you remember that people never stopped enjoying magazines, even as the economics of producing them got more tenuous.

Amanda Mull, in her latest Buying Power column, writes about what happened when publishers realized they owned a luxury good: The Print Magazine Revival of 2024

Razor-Thin Margin

49%
That's how much support Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each have from swing voters in seven key states. Just two weeks before the presidential election, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat.

Still on Strike

"Our members deserve more and have spoken loudly."
President Jon Holden
IAM District 751
Boeing factory workers rejected a new labor contract that would have increased their wages by 35% over four years. Investors had seen the vote as a possible positive catalyst to help the planemaker turn a corner on a year of cascading crises.

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