| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a draining slugfest of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. We're nearly a year out from the horrors of Oct. 7, yet the ongoing conflict in the Middle East appears to be more tense — and violent — than ever. Look no further than this heated exchange Monday between Ta-Nehisi Coates and CBS Mornings host Tony Dokoupil, who suggested Coates' new book, The Message, is the kind of tome that might be found in an extremist's backpack. I won't rehash the details here, but there's a distinct energy — jittery, rigid, uneasy — about the conversation. It's an energy anyone who ventures into a debate over the prospect of cease-fires and hostage releases has no doubt felt many times. Iran's latest missile barrage against Israel practically guarantees even more heated exchanges in the weeks and months ahead. In the simplest terms, Israel has spent the past two weeks blitzing Hezbollah strongholds — the Lebanese terrorist group bankrolled by Iran — with exploding pagers and precision airstrikes. Hal Brands calls it "one of the most lethally effective, targeted military campaigns in modern history." It culminated on Friday evening in Beirut, when IDF forces killed Hezbollah's chief, Hassan Nasrallah, while he was deep in his bunker. "The remarkable degradation of the world's most potent terror group ranks as Israel's most impressive feat of arms since the Six Day War in 1967," Hal says. At the same time, "surprising military breakthroughs can cause strategic intoxication, and it's important not to exaggerate what Israel has achieved," he writes. "The country is still stuck in a grinding, quasi-occupation of Gaza, where dozens of Israeli hostages are slowly dying in dark tunnels held by Hamas. The economy is suffering from an extended, multifront conflict; Israeli society and politics remain deeply, perhaps perilously, polarized." While Iran and Hezbollah remain a risk, their forces are in shambles and critical military arteries are clogged. Efforts to retaliate have largely failed. Today, Iran fired more than 100 ballistic missiles directly at Israel, its second ambush in six months. "There were no immediate reports of fatalities, although two men armed with an assault rifle and a knife killed at least six innocent people in an apparently opportunistic terrorist attack in Jaffa," Marc Champion writes (free read).  "The intended message was clear — we don't want a real war, but if it comes to one, look what we can do," Marc says. "And yet the attack projected weakness instead." He calls Iran's strike a "strategic blunder" and argues it presents Israel with an opportunity: "The IDF can now force an even more acute dilemma on the Iranian regime. A bigger Israeli missile attack will destroy more assets and be much more publicly visible than April's. Dismissing Israel's drones as toys, as regime officials did last time, won't work. Khamenei and his generals will have to decide whether to do nothing, and lose still more credibility and deterrence power, or risk a potentially disastrous war that could even draw in the US, by striking back." As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, a former senior US intelligence officer, told Bloomberg News: "We are on the edge of an all-out war between at least Israel and Hezbollah, which could be devastating to Lebanon and quite painful for Israel. If they bring in the Iranians as well, the whole region is going to be at risk." Hal sees truth in that. "If the unfolding Israeli ground campaign in Lebanon becomes an ugly, draining slugfest — rather than a series of deep, punishing raids — Israel's diplomatic isolation could deepen and the tide of the larger regional contest could shift again," he warns. Read the whole thing for free. Bonus Global Conflict Reading: Asia just got more dangerous with Beijing's intercontinental ballistic missile test. — Karishma Vaswani So, I've scoured the entire internet and I don't think they made Jimmy Carter a Smucker's jar, which feels ... sacrilegious?? How could The Today Show fumble the ball so badly? He's gotten 30 new homes, a benefit concert, thousands of birthday cards, a celebratory cap and a personalized video from President Joe Biden but NO JELLY WITH HIS FACE ON IT!!! So of course I took matters into my own hands and Photoshopped this for him: Jimmy Carter is a national treasure. Not only is he the only president to ever make it through a century of life, he's the only one who battled a killer swamp rabbit and came out victorious. And he looked stylish while doing it! They really don't make politicians like him anymore. Today's bar is so low that we're praising Tim Walz for ... holding a cat? I can't be the only one not looking forward to the debate between him and JD Vance this evening. Although some pundits say the face-off between vice presidential candidates will be "high-stakes," Francis Wilkinson is extremely skeptical that 90 minutes of trying to out-weird each other's comments about cats and dogs and couches is going to result in any meaningful change. "There aren't a lot of undecided voters left in the 2024 presidential race, if there were ever many to start with," he writes, and whatever holdouts remain are likely undecided about whether to cast a ballot at all. Plus, 9 p.m. ET is past a lot of people's bedtimes! Some folks won't even know the veep debate is even happening. Others will simply wait to watch the highlight reel on TikTok or Instagram tomorrow: "Each will be hoping to create a moment that travels across the digital hills and dales of social media," Francis writes. Let's hope there's a fly swatter near the podiums this time around. Wouldn't want anyone generating too much buzz. Bonus Election Reading: - For Black voters, abortion isn't merely a women's issue. It's a quality of life issue, too. — Nia-Malika Henderson
- MAGA's praise of "real Americans" has been used to insult and endanger immigrants since the Civil War. — Stephen Mihm
- South Florida has been where Springfield, Ohio, is today. And 1980s Miami has a message for Trump and Harris. — Jonathan Levin
John Authers notes that it's China's Golden Week, so what better way to kick it off than a chart about gold itself? "The amount of gold bought by central banks more than quintupled between the first and third quarter of 2022 and has since remained elevated relative to the prior decade, with China playing a prominent role," Liam Denning writes. It's a bet that's paid off handsomely for Chinese investors: Gold now trades at its highest level relative to oil since early 2021.  The last time members of the International Longshoremen's Association went on strike over wages, benefits and job security, it was 1977 — the year Fleetwood Mac released "Don't Stop." Nearly 50 years later, Thomas Black says the port workers at it again: "While store shelves and e-commerce deliveries won't be emptied or halted immediately, a prolonged strike will begin to bite well before the Nov. 5 presidential election," he writes. "Inventories will be whittled down, and the temporary solution of transporting goods from the West Coast across the country by rail and truck will become saturated." The WHO is meant to manage viral outbreaks. The rapid spread of mpox shows it can do better. — Bloomberg's editorial board I'm back in the RV, retracing my epic road trip to see what's changed since 2020. — Frank Barry Japan's new prime minister has barely the concept of a plan. — Gearoid Reidy Now that Malaysia is no longer trying to buck economic norms, it's reaping the benefits. — Daniel Moss A trading experiment about the value of tomorrow's headlines tells us a lot about good decision-making. — Aaron Brown UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel wants to convince Germany to let him buy Commerzbank. — Paul J. Davies CNN is toying with a digital paywall. PepsiCo bought Siete Foods for $1.2 billion. Taylor Lorenz is launching a new publication. The truth about tuna. Babygirl is gonna be a wild ride. The best Halloween decoration. Disney's historical theme park was a flop. Area sloth floats away on a magic broom. Notes: Please send Jimmy Carter Cake and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Threads, TikTok, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. | 
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