Friday, October 11, 2024

The London Rush: Economy returns to growth

GDP Grows but Jitters Remain

Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today's top business stories.

Presentation is key.

Britain's GDP grew 0.2% in August, returning the economy to growth after two months of stagnation and leaving it on track to expand in the third quarter. Services, production and construction all grew. Welcome news, and a relief for the government.

But that data refers to a period before business leaders became more nervous about Labour's doom and gloom messaging ahead of a "painful" budget on Oct. 30. Consumer confidence is low. How well the economy holds up in September, and going forward, is in doubt.

On Monday, the government will host an international investment summit in London, which Keir Starmer has touted as key part of his pledge to spur growth.

With lingering jitters and business executives still waiting for the Prime Minister's grand plans, it makes the job of new Investment Minister Poppy Gustafsson, co-founder and ex-CEO of Darktrace, all the more important.

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

Oil giant BP expects its debt to rise, with lower margins from processing crude to hit earnings by as much as $600 million. Its words echo those of rivals, adding to a weaker current picture for the oil industry.

If you're looking for a new job, now (still) might not be the time. "Tough market conditions" rumble on for recruiter Hays, particularly for permanent roles due to low confidence and longer time to hire.

Matt Moulding's THG has tapped shareholders for £95.4 million to help spin-off its tech arm, Ingenuity, into a standalone company. That would leave it to focus on its protein and beauty. Once upon a time, Ingenuity was valued at £4.5 billion — but that didn't exactly work out.

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: Confidence Issues

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

Today's GDP figures will no doubt come as some relief to the Treasury as the Chancellor prepares to deliver her first budget later this month. They show a return to growth in August, albeit at a slower pace than in the first half of the year. But August was over a month ago and there have been several iffier signals since then, particularly relating to confidence. 

There was more of that this morning too, with recruitment specialist Hays reporting a drop in fees thanks to "low levels of confidence" and said it's taking longer to hire people. That's particularly the case for permanent staff hiring, which suggests a more persistent issue — and Hays doesn't see things changing any time soon.

Morwenna Coniam

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

Unemployment figures land on Tuesday (predicted to be flat), and September's inflation comes on Wednesday (expected to fall).

Plus, a collection of 3Q earnings including mining giants Rio Tinto and Antofagasta. A big Thursday features the likes of DeliverooSt. James' Place, Entain and Mondi.

Pub Quiz

Rafael Nadal is retiring from professional tennis after the Davis Cup finals in Malaga next month. How many grand slams has he won in his career, coming in just shy of Djokovic's all-time record?

Photographer: CARLA GOTTGENS

[Yesterday's answer: Labour's package of new workers' rights did not include paid heartbreak leave. That was a bill proposed in the Philippines earlier this year.]

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