Crypto News: The evolution of EV policy

Do we need to talk about electric cars? Our global business editor Jamie Nimmo thinks so: He has an exclusive about Ford, which is asking the government for more subsidies to boost its electric vehicle sales in the UK. The company's managing director for Britain and Ireland told him in unusually direct language that the UK must "do something" to help. Ford joins other car manufacturers in wanting subsidies reintroduced in this month's budget, as well as VAT on EVs and street charging lowered.

This might sound like turkeys voting for Christmas to be postponed, or at least expecting help to make turkey-free versions of themselves, but is something fairly serious afoot?

In June, when the Tory party was in charge, Jeep and Vauxhall maker Stellantis was already threatening to stop making EVs altogether unless the government eased sales targets. Since then, the only noise this new government has made on EVs is that while it will keep the Boris Johnson 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, it will continue to allow the sale of some hybrids until 2035.

But across the world, the numbers on EV sales in recent times are not pretty. And this graph about European sales is decidedly not pretty:

It's not new that car manufacturers are asking for help meeting the deadline – they did it routinely when I worked in government in the runup to COP26, when we were resolutely cajoling consumers and producers away from the internal combustion engine. What's different this time is that there is a new government having to answer these pleas – and one that is seeking to redouble efforts to reduce the UK's carbon emissions, but this time in an era of strained finances where subsidies are harder to afford.

This nice and crunchy piece by Joshua Gallu surveys the international picture and confirms the worries: "This year, the EV transition is having a wobble." It details how in Europe the shift to EVs "effectively went into reverse, as cars with exhaust pipes took a growing share of overall sales." A shocking fact: "In Germany, the continent's biggest market, EV sales plunged by 69%."

There is of course one market that could help EV affordability – China — given its cheaper batteries, some of which use the more abundant sodium. But the EU and US are protecting their domestic TV producers with tariffs on these cheaper cars. It's a tough one.

As our reporter puts it: "Western governments now face a dilemma: Opening the door to more imports and manufacturing of Chinese EVs and EV parts would help to keep prices falling in Europe and North America and spur demand. But it could also undermine local manufacturers and further entrench China's dominance in the clean industries of the future."

On the more optimistic side of the ledger, newly reconfigured factories will soon produce new cheaper EV models in Europe. That effort just needs to go up a gear.

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The stories you need to know about this evening

Apple readies new iPhone SE model that kills the home button.
Badenoch runs Tory leadership campaign from currency guru's home.
Bloomberg Opinion: Labour's plans will punish people for working.
Macron backs temporary extra tax on large French companies.
Canary Wharf to use retail assets to refinance £350 million bond.

A cracking piece of academic research is nestled in the heart of Adrian Wooldridge's latest column, which comes as Austria's far-right Freedom Party topped the national polls on Sunday. It's just the latest populist success this year, as Adrian details.

Supporters of the Freedom Party Austria (FPOe) in May Photographer: ALEX HALADA/AFP

He points to a 2023 paper by three researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy that analyzed all populist movements, left and right, going all the way back to 1900, and from all over the world. In total they looked at 51 populist leaders from 60 countries. After 15 years, he says, GDP per capita is 10% lower on average in populist-run countries.

"Populist governments significantly worsen the economic problems of the people who vote for them," is Adrian's conclusion. "The more depressing insight is that economic failure does nothing to diminish populists' electoral prospects and may even enhance them."

If you don't want cheering up, have a read.

"Iran risks setting the entire region on fire — this must be prevented at all costs."

Olaf Scholz

German chancellor

Scholz spoke after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, a major escalation that world powers fear could spiral into a Middle East-wide war.

One key story, every weekday

Pierre Cailleteau, who leads Lazard's sovereign advisory team Photographer: Julie Glassberg for Bloomberg Markets

It was the kind of job the bankers working out of Lazard's Paris office were known for: Fly into a country drowning in debt — in this case, Zambia — and help rescue it from financial ruin.

For decades, Lazard dominated these developing-world restructurings. Just about any time a hard-pressed government fell hopelessly behind on bills, a few dozen bankers would arrive, usually with Lazard's team at the center, to hash out new terms in a matter of months.

But the negotiations over Zambia's $13.4 billion debt would be different, marking a turning point for Lazard and other emerging-markets turnaround specialists. China held up the process by seeking more favorable terms for itself, wielding its newfound clout as the developing world's biggest lender against a growing crowd of assertive Wall Street bondholders.

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Allegra Stratton worked for former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

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