Wednesday, October 9, 2024

The danger of Ukraine concessions talk

A difficult time for Ukraine

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It's cost Ukraine enormous effort and a huge toll to resist Russia's invading army for what's fast approaching 1,000 days.

Little wonder, then, that some of Kyiv's allies detect a greater readiness to adopt a more flexible approach to end the war. That view would have been discussed at talks in Germany set for Saturday before President Joe Biden canceled his planned visit to focus on the threat from Hurricane Milton in the US.

It's a difficult moment for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who's trying to win support for a "victory plan" with his troops in retreat in eastern Ukraine.

The US is consumed by next month's presidential election whose outcome could determine future aid for Ukraine's defense. Some European allies are beginning to flag in their backing for Kyiv in a war that shows no sign of ending.

While specific concessions haven't been mentioned, there's a lot of chatter about Ukraine potentially gaining strong security guarantees in return for accepting it can't oust Russian forces from occupied territories for now.

This could even extend to NATO membership, with some pointing to West Germany's experience during the Cold War division with East Germany. Others don't want to go that far, and the US has been notably non-committal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, gives no indication he's interested in coming to the negotiating table. Talk of concessions is likely only to embolden the Kremlin in its belief that Russia can outlast the West in Ukraine.

Putin, after all, still occupies parts of neighboring Georgia seized in a 2008 war at little cost to Russia. He annexed Crimea and ignited fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014, with only a muted response from the US and Europe.

For all the war-gaming on ending the present conflict, the fundamental question for Ukraine's allies is whether they continue to let Putin gain from military aggression and at what future cost to them. 

View by drone of the bombed-out town of Vuhledar, Ukraine. Photographer: Gaelle Girbes/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's planned visit to the US was delayed after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu objected, saying he first wanted the security cabinet to agree on a response to a ballistic missile salvo by Iran last week. Biden and Netanyahu are expected to speak by telephone today, although the Israeli leader has shown little willingness to follow Washington's advice.

President Xi Jinping's economic, financial and market support measures to lift the Chinese economy out of the doldrums sparked a blistering rally in equities that has catapulted nine of the nation's tycoons back into the ranks of the world's richest people. For more average citizens, the impact of the stimulus is less clear, with figures showing that tourists shelled out less money during the recent Golden Week break than before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Mozambican ruling party presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, looks a shoo-in to win today's election. But he faces a daunting task: quell an Islamic State-backed insurgency that's stalled massive liquefied natural gas projects which have the potential to transform one of the world's least-developed nations.

A man sells shoes in front of campaign posters of the ruling Frelimo party on Aug. 24.    Photographer: Alfredo Zuniga/ AFP/Getty Images

An attempt to break up Google is a growing possibility after the US Justice Department told a federal judge it may recommend forcing the company to sell off parts of its operations to alleviate the harm caused by its monopolization of the online search market. In a court filing, antitrust enforcers said Judge Amit Mehta could also order the Alphabet unit to provide access to the underlying data it uses to build its search results and artificial intelligence products.

France is waking up to a harsh financial reality after snap elections in June produced a hung parliament and an unstable government. Once a nation whose bonds were seen as a proxy for German bunds, Europe's safest asset, it now finds itself recast as a poster child of fiscal irresponsibility, with debt yields aligned with Spain and increasingly close to Italy's, pointing to a long and painful rehabilitation. 

A bid by new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to turn his personal popularity into a fresh mandate for the scandal-plagued Liberal Democratic Party began with the dissolution of the lower house of parliament ahead of a national election on Oct. 27.

Kenyan lawmakers voted to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, raising the risk of renewed political instability as the economy struggles to recover from deadly anti-government protests earlier this year.

Brazil's Supreme Court authorized the return of X after Elon Musk complied with its demands, including taking down some user accounts and appointing a legal representative for the platform in the country.

US Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz backed eliminating the Electoral College and choosing the president by popular vote but acknowledged that appeared unlikely in the current political climate.

Washington Dispatch

Even as Kamala Harris concludes the final weeks of her campaign for president, the vice president continues to play a role in major challenges confronting the Biden administration.

The White House says Biden and Harris will be briefed on preparations in Florida for the onslaught of Hurricane Milton today, when the Category 5 storm is expected to reach the state's Gulf Coast.

The briefing will also include a report on the federal government's response to the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene, whose rainfall and winds were intensified by climate change, a rapid analysis by the World Weather Attribution group found. 

The session illustrates the duality of Harris' public life. She spent yesterday making a much-publicized round of radio and television programs. Tomorrow, she plans to hold a rally in Arizona as early voting begins in that state.

One person to watch today: House Speaker Mike Johnson is scheduled to tour the Asheville, North Carolina, area with members of the state's congressional delegation as the region recovers from Helene.

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Chart of the Day

German forests have become an emitter of carbon for the first time in decades. A large-scale government survey, based on data collected throughout 2022, showed that drought, storms and bark beetle infestations have caused so much damage that the nation's forests now release more carbon than they absorb. 

And Finally

Russia's move to ban the Discord instant messaging platform popular with gamers sparked a backlash from military bloggers who say it's used by drone operators at the front in the war on Ukraine. The authorities added the application to a growing list of social media services that they restrict due to concerns they can be used to recruit people to carry out terror attacks and sell drugs. The Telegram channel Fighterbomber, which is dedicated to military aviation and has more than 530,000 subscribers, called it a "stab in the back."

Ukrainian firefighters at a building destroyed by a Russian drone attack in Kyiv. Photographer: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images

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