Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. It's cost Ukraine enormous effort and a huge toll to resist Russia's invading army for what's fast approaching 1,000 days. Little wonder, then, that some of Kyiv's allies detect a greater readiness to adopt a more flexible approach to end the war. That view would have been discussed at talks in Germany set for Saturday before President Joe Biden canceled his planned visit to focus on the threat from Hurricane Milton in the US. It's a difficult moment for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who's trying to win support for a "victory plan" with his troops in retreat in eastern Ukraine. The US is consumed by next month's presidential election whose outcome could determine future aid for Ukraine's defense. Some European allies are beginning to flag in their backing for Kyiv in a war that shows no sign of ending. While specific concessions haven't been mentioned, there's a lot of chatter about Ukraine potentially gaining strong security guarantees in return for accepting it can't oust Russian forces from occupied territories for now. This could even extend to NATO membership, with some pointing to West Germany's experience during the Cold War division with East Germany. Others don't want to go that far, and the US has been notably non-committal. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, gives no indication he's interested in coming to the negotiating table. Talk of concessions is likely only to embolden the Kremlin in its belief that Russia can outlast the West in Ukraine. Putin, after all, still occupies parts of neighboring Georgia seized in a 2008 war at little cost to Russia. He annexed Crimea and ignited fighting in eastern Ukraine in 2014, with only a muted response from the US and Europe. For all the war-gaming on ending the present conflict, the fundamental question for Ukraine's allies is whether they continue to let Putin gain from military aggression and at what future cost to them. — Anthony Halpin View by drone of the bombed-out town of Vuhledar, Ukraine. Photographer: Gaelle Girbes/Getty Images |
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