| Does a government get a second chance to make a first impression? Keir Starmer must be hoping so as he approaches the milestone of 100 days in office this Saturday — apparently wishing the last 95 hadn't happened. As our political team writes: "Even allies say [it's] been a rocky three months in power." Yesterday saw the dramatic departure of his chief of staff, Sue Gray – a far swifter defenestration than any of his supposedly less moral predecessors managed. We're told this indicates Starmer is more ruthless than them – which is, we're also told, a good thing. Maybe. But as our political team dissects, he's also retreating from half the revenue raisers he put forward during the election, which are policies that are nothing to do with Sue Gray. "Doubts hang over Labour's fiscal plans just three weeks before a make-or-break budget, with officials admitting they were examining three tax proposals amid concerns that they were either unworkable in their current form or would end up costing rather than generating money." The plans could be make-or-break for the exchequer too — given research out today finds that one in seven companies would consider leaving the UK if their tax burden increases at the budget.  Sue Gray Photographer: Stefan Rousseau/PA The departure of Gray will be chalked up as just "process" — Westminster chicanery that's irrelevant down the proverbial Dog and Duck. But there is a chance it's noted by voters, and for reasons Starmer aided and abetted. His appointment of Gray, the inquisitor of Boris Johnson's party-gate, caused an almighty commotion, and it was meant to: the audacious bagging of someone right from the heart of the British establishment for a political job. Gray was famous enough from party-gate to have sparked memes and get her name printed onto mugs, and that was exactly what Starmer wanted — it brought someone to his team whose name had become a byword for propriety. If Sue Gray thought Starmer was a good egg, then the country would too, was the thinking. Gray gave up her civil service impartiality to work for Labour. That was her decision, but I criticized how she muddled civil servant impartiality here. Indeed, for Gray herself, wouldn't it have been easier (though less proper) for her to have said no to Starmer's overtures, sit tight in Whitehall and wait for his election — upon which he could have made her cabinet secretary? Nope, not for Gray. It was quite the Rubicon to cross, and one which you'd think elicited some loyalty. It is probable she made mistakes in Number 10 – let me tell you, everyone there does, every day. When I worked in there it felt like I was racing alongside 100 horses, trying to jump onto one and stay on it. But it's also probable that Gray's detractors made mistakes too, and it is telling that it was only ever hers that emerged in the press.  Morgan McSweeney Photographer: Tayfun Salci/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock Why should you care about yet more Downing Street psychodrama? Well, firstly because Labour said they would end the psychodrama. The fact they can't shows how hard it is to get the right top team in Number 10. Secondly, should the public really be OK with a system that allows someone with a career's worth of Whitehall experience to be dumped? It doesn't ring true that Starmer could not use her knowledge inside Number 10. Perhaps most importantly for the City it will have an effect on the budget. Whereas Westminster had expected to see all the tax rises for this parliament in one painful go in October, I would have thought this top team now needs to take greater care and galvanize currently glum confidence. In this sense, the City may end up grateful to Gray. The new team in Number 10 may well want to make the budget more political. But doing this in the 48 hours before the budget apparently heads to the Office for Budget Responsibility is where a danger lies — the current document will have been combed over to eliminate unintended consequences in a formal Treasury process called "presentational risk." Hasty re-writes can backfire. In the end, I suspect they do enough in this first budget. Morgan McSweeney — former Labour election strategist and now Sue Gray's replacement in Number 10 — will know that a good budget can indeed reset perceptions. Given his wife is the chancellor's parliamentary private secretary, he may already have steered the document to make sure it's the right mix of investment inspiration, placating the core vote, and Tory-bashing. It's a thin landing zone – fiscally cautious, but spending enough to satisfy the public. But land it they must. It's probably their last chance to make a good first impression. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. | 
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