Friday, October 18, 2024

Storm of the millennium?

What a 1,000-year storm really means |

Today's newsletter demystifies what a 1-in-1,ooo-year storm really means, and why it's so important to communicating risk and ensuring infrastructure is ready. You can read and share a full version of this story on Bloomberg.com. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe

Once in a millennium

By Lauren Rosenthal

Officials called Hurricane Helene's deadly rainfall and floods "biblical" and "generational." But weather forecasters used another term: "once in 1,000 years."

As a weather reporter, I was struck by the fact that Helene was actually the second once-in-a-millennium storm to strike North Carolina in a matter of days.

Less than two weeks before Helene made landfall, an unnamed tropical storm brought once-in-1,000-year rains to communities on the opposite side of the state, inundating homes along the coast.

Destroyed homes following Hurricane Helene in Chimney Rock, North Carolina. Photographer: Allison Joyce/AFP

The idea of two such events occurring back-to-back might seem confusing, but in reality, it's all about probability. Understanding the odds — and how climate change is shifting them — is more important than ever for communities and infrastructure managers.

Researchers were able to definitively identify these two extremely rare deluges in North Carolina based on rainfall frequency estimates. Using years of precipitation measurements for a specific place, scientists extrapolate what constitutes a hundred-year storm, for example, for that location.

But it's a mistake to think that you'd only see one of those within your lifetime in a given place. That's because these rainfall estimates are just stating the odds: In any given year, there's a 1% chance of a storm arriving that drops that much rainfall on your area, said Mari Tye, a civil engineer who works on resilience at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Add in the effects of climate change — which are not included in current estimates — and the likelihood of catastrophic rains increase, said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California Los Angeles. A hotter atmosphere can hold additional moisture, which is driving more frequent and intense downpours.

Take Helene's rains. While they were a 1,000-year event using statistical estimates based on the historic record, a rapid analysis in the wake of the storm found that rains as severe as Helene's now occur about once every 70 years due to global warming.

"You're going from an event most people would never experience in generations to something that most people would see at least once in their life," said Swain. "That's a huge shift."

It creates a huge problem for communicating storm hazards to the public, as the risk modeling organization First Street Foundation has pointed out. The shift also obscures whether infrastructure is really up to the task of handling historic rains on a more frequent basis, and it makes it hard for homeowners to gauge their flood risk. Researchers at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are working to update precipitation frequency estimates, based on a shifting climate. They're aiming to issue a new version by the end of 2027.

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com. 

Upping the odds

500x
Burning fossil fuels made the high sea temperatures that fed Hurricane Helene this many more times likely, according to analysis published earlier this month.

Tomorrow's flood zone

"Even the people that have insurance would say, 'I just never dreamt that we would ever flood.'"
Richard Folkman
Vice president at claims management firm Crawford & Company
Americans have dangerously low levels of flood insurance. To find out if you need it, take our quiz.

Another warning for US infrastructure 

By Kendra Pierre-LouisZahra Hirji, and Michael Smith

Hurricanes Helene and Milton devastated swaths of the southeastern US by bringing too much water. Now, communities are struggling with the opposite problem: too little of it.

The North Fork Water Treatment Plant supplies most of the drinking water to Asheville, North Carolina, and some surrounding mountain towns. Built in the 1970s, it was known for its clear water, which flows into the plant from a large reservoir.

After Hurricane Helene barreled in late last month, dumping almost 14 inches of rain, the plant had to be shut down due to pipeline damage, leaving almost no water for a system that serves 160,000 people. The city's other big treatment plant, called William DeBruhl, was largely knocked out as well. Only a smaller plant remained operational.

Workers repair damage to the main pipeline that connected the North Fork plant to Asheville's pipe system before Helene ruptured it, Oct. 4, 2024. Michael Smith/Bloomberg News

As Bloomberg Green reports today, the city's woes illustrate how the age of the nation's water infrastructure, combined with the increasing pressures of climate change, can push systems to collapse. That means what has happened in Asheville, absent mitigation efforts, is likely to play out in slightly different ways in communities across the country. 

In related news, the Biden administration announced it's awarding nearly $2 billion in funding to help protect the US power grid against extreme weather and to expand transmission projects.

The funding for 32 projects is being made available through the Energy Department and will span 42 states, the administration said in a statement Friday. Investments will include utilities that were wrecked by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. 

More from Green

Nuclear energy is having a moment. And according to  OpenAI backer and tech billionaire Vinod Khosla, the holy grail of clean power generation, nuclear fusion, will be a reality within five years.

A major booster of artificial intelligence who wrote the first venture capital check for Sam Altman's OpenAI, Khosla said fusion will be key to meeting data center energy demand.

Generating energy by smashing atoms together has long been a dream for investors and entrepreneurs eager for a source of limitless, clean baseload power. The technology saw a breakthrough in 2022 when scientists were able to get more energy out than energy put in for a fusion reaction.

But it's struggled to reach viability, prompting skepticism it'll become a reality. Soaring electricity demand due in part to the AI data center boom, though, has spawned a renewed interest in both moonshot approaches and traditional nuclear technology known as fission, which involves splitting large atoms instead. 

Vinod Khosla Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Google made its first nuclear investment this week. The company announced its supporting the development of several advanced small modular reactors from Kairos Power. "We feel that nuclear is a very important technology for going carbon free for offices, data centers, communities where we operate," Michael Terrell, senior director of energy and climate, said on Bloomberg Television.

Nuclear is becoming a prerequisite for AI. Nvidia Corp.-backed cloud services firm Ubitus K.K. said it wants to build a new data center in Japan, but it's demanding that nuclear power is available nearby. The Tokyo-based firm, which already has two data centers for gaming, plans to build a third to serve generative AI.

Meanwhile, AI might be looking through your trash. Cities are trialing artificial intelligence-enhanced methods to help improve their waste management, including reducing contaminants in their recycling and composting streams. But as with all new technology, there are privacy concerns.

Also on our radar

By Thomas Seal

An unlikely political upstart in Canada's third-largest province, expelled from his previous party for climate science skepticism, is within striking distance of winning power with promises to ditch environmental targets and unleash natural-resources development.

The surge in support for John Rustad's Conservative Party of British Columbia ahead of the Oct. 19 election may have been helped by the popularity of the unaffiliated federal Conservatives. Victory would add to the roster of right-leaning premiers at odds with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government in Ottawa.

A Conservative government in BC might mark a bigger shift than anywhere else in the country. The province is famous for environmentalism — Vancouver is the birthplace of Greenpeace and home to Canada's most famous climate activist, David Suzuki. 

John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia. Photographer: Ethan Cairns/Bloomberg

Wildfire watch

By Brian K Sullivan and Coco Liu

California wildfire risks are rising as the state's annual wind season gets underway with gusts rolling out of the north that can fan any flame into an out-of-control blaze, with threats expected to continue through the weekend.

The winds coming across the dry landscape and over the state's mountain ranges along with arid conditions have created a situation where any fire that gets started can rage out of control. The National Weather Service has raised red flag fire warnings in the valleys around Sacramento up to San Francisco's Bay Area and into the state's wine country.

There is also a chance critical fire weather will extend into Southern California as Santa Ana winds may develop there over the weekend, said David Acuna, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, commonly called Cal Fire. Utilities in the state have already said they may need to cut power to homes and businesses to protect against fire threats.

"The fuels are still dry and prepped to burn, whether it's light like grasses or heavy like timber, they are all dry,'' Acuna said. "They are all dry and ready to burn, and it's just as much as a tinderbox now as it was in July.''

Water is dropped from a helicopter as the Line Fire burns in San Bernardino County, California, on Oct. 1. Photographer: David Swanson/AFP/Getty Images

Meanwhile, a new study has found forest fire emissions are rising globally. Carbon dioxide emissions from burning woodlands have surged 60% globally since 2001, as more and bigger blazes tore through fast-warming regions outside the tropics.

The research, published Thursday in the journal Science, shows that wildfires are getting worse, particularly in one climate-sensitive area — the northern boreal forests, which span from Russia to North America. Fire emissions have almost tripled from those forests during the past 20 years, the authors of the report said.

Worth a listen

Electric vehicle sales have hit the brakes in Europe and the US in recent months, as cost-conscious drivers have opted for cars with exhaust pipes instead. Bucking the trend is ride-sharing giant Uber, which is not only adding zero emission models to its fleet, but also lobbying regulators to demand more EVs on the road. On Zero, Dara Khosrowshahi discusses the company's short and long-term green goals, and tells Akshat Rathi why he believes electric cars are good for business – not just for the environment. Listen now, and subscribe on Apple,  Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

More from Bloomberg

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  • Energy Daily for a daily guide to the energy and commodities markets that power the global economy
  • CityLab Daily for top urban stories and ideas, curated for your inbox by CityLab editors
  • Tech Daily for what to know in tech

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