Hi, this is John Liu in Beijing, where I've been wondering why India and China picked now to make nice. Four years after border clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers high up in the Himalayas left some two dozen dead, the world's biggest emerging economies announced this week they'd reached an agreement to stabilize ties. The deal allows patrols to be conducted by both countries along the border and for the two militaries to take a step back from each other. It essentially means Beijing and New Delhi can lower the temperature in their relationship, at least for now. It also paved the way for President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to sit down for their first formal bilateral meeting in some two years at a BRICS summit in Russia. As motivational as making Xi and Modi happy must have been for their negotiators, it wouldn't have been the only reason a deal got done. Economic realities were certainly an important factor. After all, improving living standards for their populations is as integral for Modi's ability to govern as it is for Xi's. (Read an inside account of New Delhi's considerations here.) And of course, there's a US presidential election just 11 days away, a date I imagine bureaucrats in Beijing and New Delhi have scribbled on yellow Post-it notes stuck all over their offices. It's the event that matters for everything. It's also looking like a tossup. The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states found that neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump had an advantage. (Read our story here on why China would prefer Harris.) Supporters of Narendra Modi burn a photo of Xi Jinping at a 2020 protest in India. Photographer: SANJAY KANOJIA/AFP That uncertainty makes it awful hard to prepare for the future, but if you had to, you'd probably want to keep as many options open as possible. Striking a deal now, with the US election looming, does that for both China and India. Underlining that point is the fact that China isn't just trying to make nice with India, which partners with the US in the Quad grouping that also includes Japan and Australia. There have also been recent proclamations from Beijing for a desired "fresh start" with Japan and for a "new starting point" with the UK. China is likely handing out those olive branches to US allies as a kind of insurance against any uncertainties that would come with a Harris victory and to offset the possibility of worsening ties with the US if Trump wins. After all, a trade war started during his previous tenure, and he's threatened tariffs of more than 60% on China if reelected. If the forecast calls for a good chance of rain, it makes sense to find an umbrella. Apple CEO Tim Cook made his second visit to China of 2024, appearing this week at a store in Beijing and then for some reason visiting an organic farm. Cook also had a message that'll please his hosts: the tech giant will continue investing in the nation. They'll love hearing that given authorities are working hard to attract money from abroad to help the ailing economy. Foreign investors pulled a record amount of funding from the country in the second quarter, reflecting deep pessimism about the future. Cook is also working on Apple's next challenge in China: It has not found a partner for its AI offering in nation after it signed a landmark deal with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into its newest phones elsewhere. That means Chinese buyers can't yet benefit from what Apple says is a cool new feature of the devices. Apple is working on offering AI services for Chinese customers as soon as possible, Cook told a local media outlet, adding that his company needs to complete a comprehensive regulatory process first. That's because the government requires companies to get permission before they roll out generative AI services in the country, and so far no major US bot has gotten that from Beijing. That's not a huge surprise given emerging technologies have become a key battleground for the world's two largest economies. Among Apple's options for a potential AI partnership in China are Alibaba and Baidu, which both have advanced chatbots on the market. Tim Cook and Apple COO Jeff Williams at an organic farm in suburban Beijing. It's too early to say whether Apple can overcome this hurdle in China but going by its track record, there's reason for optimism. For one thing, the company has been able to assuage the Chinese government's concerns about data security, an issue that is extremely important to top officials in Zhongnanhai. Apple did that by building its first data center in the country to comply with local regulations. It later agreed to shift the storage of Chinese users' data on the iCloud to server farms operated by a company with ties to a local government. And there are at least early signs to think business may be rebounding in Apple's most important market after the US. Sales of the newest iPhones in China were reportedly up 20% in their first three weeks compared with the 2023 model. That's a tentative indication Apple has figured out a way to not only survive but thrive in a market where many consumers turned to domestic companies, partly out of national pride. |
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