Friday, October 11, 2024

Next Africa: Turbulent times

Kenya's deputy president faces impeachment, months after protests roiled the nation

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Kenya is being roiled by political instability, again.

Members of the East African nation's ruling alliance accused Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua of pilfering public funds and making inflammatory remarks. This week, more than two thirds of lawmakers in the National Assembly voted to impeach him. The Senate will now decide his fate.

Gachagua, 59, who came to office on a joint ticket with President William Ruto in 2022, dismissed the accusations against him as outrageous and rejected suggestions he should quit.

Rigathi Gachagua. Photographer: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

The turbulence comes at an awkward juncture for Kenya, which has had a long history of disputed elections, ethnic tensions and intermittent political violence.

Recent protests over the government's plans to raise new taxes led to the deaths of at least 60 people before Ruto agreed to roll back the levies. That's left the Treasury struggling to fund the budget shortfall and reduce unsustainable public debt.

The president's program to fire up the economy, create jobs and increase access to healthcare and affordable housing also risks being derailed.

Attempts to sideline Gachagua may stoke tensions between his Kikuyu community, the country's largest ethnic group, and Ruto's Kalenjin supporters in parts of the Rift Valley — a flash point for previous clashes.

East Africa Bureau chief Helen Nyambura joins Jennifer Zabasajja to explain how Kenyans are reacting to this latest crisis, and why the country continues to face instability.

Relations between the two leaders have deteriorated sharply since July, when the president formed a so-called government of national unity in the wake of the anti-tax protests. The new administration, which includes members of  former Prime Minister Raila Odinga party, was set up with the aim of bolstering support for Ruto, but instead created ructions within its constituent parties.

Impeachment would bar Gachagua from competing in future elections but he may be able to run again if he resigns.   

If the realignment does cost him the job, the repercussions will likely reverberate for some time to come.

Key stories and opinion:  
Kenya's Deputy President to Fight Impeachment, Won't Resign
Lawmakers Agree to Impeach Kenya's Deputy President
Kenya Struggles to Stabilize Public Finances After Tax Protests
Kenya Requests IMF Audit for Corruption Crippling Its Finances
Lawmakers Propose Extending Kenyan President's Term by Two Years

Bloomberg is looking for the most innovative startups in Africa. Applications are open until Nov. 8. Enter here.

News Roundup

Mozambican officials continued collating votes from Wednesday's election, as opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane claimed a raft of irregularities on voting day and in the counting that followed. Preliminary counts from some polling stations indicate the ruling party will likely win, according to state-owned Agência de Informação de Moçambique. Separately, Italy's Eni received more than enough investment interest for another floating natural gas project in Mozambique, even as lenders face pressure to reduce exposure to fossil fuels.

Eni's Coral Sul floating liquefied natural gas vessel off Mozambique's northern coast. Source: Eni

Egypt denied accusations it carried out an airstrike on a paramilitary group battling Sudan's army in the neighboring country's civil war. Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo claimed the deadly attack on his fighters took place south of the Sudanese capital. He didn't provide evidence in his comments — the first time the RSF has accused Egypt of involvement in the 18-month conflict. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Sudan and at least 10 million forced to flee their homes since fighting erupted.

Cameroon's government banned media debate about the health of President Paul Biya, whose absence from public view since last month has stoked speculation about his wellbeing. Anyone found to be discussing the 91-year-old leader's health will "face the full force of the law," Territorial Administration Minister Paul Atanga Nji said. In a statement earlier this week, the government said Biya is healthy and en route back to the country, following speculation on social media that he had died. Earlier, the central African nation's dollar bonds fell amid concerns about a potential succession battle.

An electoral poster for Biya in Yaounde in October 2018. Photographer: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images

The number of South Africans optimistic about the future has doubled, encouraged by the formation of a business-friendly coalition government and more than six months of no power cuts, an Ipsos survey shows. Four out of 10 people surveyed now believe that the country is on the right track. Meanwhile, central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the inflation outlook is benefitting from an upswing in business confidence that's boosting the currency and helping create space for lower interest rates. 

The Democratic Republic of Congo is courting new investors for its deposits of key metals as it looks to diversify ownership in its mining industry that's dominated by China. The plan includes streamlining processes to pay customs and taxes, along with a partnership with the United Arab Emirates, Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba said in an interview. The nation will also revamp a railway that will make it easier to transport minerals to US and European markets. 

WATCH: Jennifer Zabasajja and Joumanna Bercetche discuss Congo's mining policy on Bloomberg TV.

Rwanda's quick and highly coordinated response to its first outbreak of the highly virulent Marburg virus has brought the disease under control
and the risk of international spread to almost zero. There have been at least 58 confirmed cases in Rwanda, making it one of the largest Marburg flareups. Read our explainer on why the illness with a fatality rate of close to 90% is popping up for the first time in new regions of  the continent.

Next Africa Quiz — Which African country's military leaders lifted a ban on SpaceX's Starlink internet kits that was imposed because of fears they'd be used by militants? Send your answers to  gbell16@bloomberg.net.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • Kenya's central bank surprised with its biggest interest-rate cut since the pandemic to help boost economic growth, after inflation eased to a 12-year low.
  • Zijin Mining bought the Akyem gold project in Ghana for as much as $1 billion in cash. Akyem's open pit mine held 34.6 tons of reserves as of December.
  • Zimbabwe has hired advisers to help it navigate potential talks with international creditors over the $21 billion it owes, sources say.
  • Uganda's anti-LGBTQ laws that include the death sentence in some cases have cost the nation as much as $1.6 billion since being introduced last May, a new study found.

Coming Up

  • Oct. 15 September inflation data for Nigeria, Botswana and Eswatini, South Africa central bank's six-monthly monetary policy review
  • Oct. 16 Namibia interest-rate decision, South Africa retail sales data for August, Ghana producer inflation for September, hearings start on the possible impeachment of Kenya's Gachagua  
  • Oct. 17 Egypt interest-rate decision

Quote of the Week

"If you scratch beneath the surface, you realize that this large area of indifference is potentially a ticking bomb." 
Riccardo Fabiani
North Africa program director at the International Crisis Group
Fabiani was commenting on the low turnout in Tunisia's presidential election — less than 30% of eligible voters participated.

Last Word

Noluthando Geja isn't looking forward to summer, when the blistering sun beats down on the steel-sheet roof of her home that's nestled in a maze of tightly packed, rudimentary brick structures and cobbled-together shacks in Itireleng, a shantytown near South Africa's capital city. Just 25 miles to the east, in the affluent Waterkloof suburb, spacious and verdant gardens face onto streets lined with purple-flowering jacaranda trees. Such extremes illustrate a dichotomy that exists across the country. The wealth gaps are obvious, but less so are the differing levels of heat stress that the rich and poor experience, according to a study for the World Bank and South Africa's Treasury.

There are few trees to offer shade in the Itireleng shantytown. Photographer: Leon Sadiki/Bloomberg

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