Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Next Africa: On a knife edge

Release of official election results set to heighten tensions

Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

Mozambique is on edge.

Protesters took to the streets of Maputo, the capital, this week over alleged election fraud and the gunning down of two opposition officials. The police responded harshly, first firing tear gas at the crowd and then at opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane as he was addressing journalists.

Local news footage showed people blocking roads with burning tires, police fighting running battles with rock-throwing youths and citizens complaining about the authorities using disproportionate force.

A police vehicle drives through a cloud of tear gas fired at protesters in Maputo on  Monday. Photographer: Alfredo Zuniga/AFP/Getty Images

The funeral on Wednesday of Elvino Dias, Mondlane's lawyer who was killed by unidentified gunmen, and the release of the final election results, which must take place by Thursday, are a potential tinderbox.

The ruling Mozambique Liberation Front will in all likelihood emerge as the winner and its candidate Daniel Chapo as president. Mondlane claims that he's the rightful victor and has called for a two-day national shutdown. 

"When the revolutionary atmosphere is present, it means we also need revolutionary leadership," he said on Facebook. 

One of the world's least-developed nations, Mozambique can't afford political instability. Its people are worse off than they were a decade ago and a $2 billion corruption scandal and repeated tropical cyclones have battered the economy. 

The government is also still battling an Islamic State-linked insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province. The fighting has stretched the military and prompted TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil to delay massive gas projects that have the potential to turn the country around.  

The European Union observer mission called for "utmost restraint by all," for fundamental freedoms and political rights to be respected, and for the electoral commission and courts to ensure the will of the voters is respected.

There's much at stake and the next few days will be critical.

Key stories and opinion:
Mozambican Opposition Chief Heads for Showdown Over Vote Outcome
Mozambique Police Use Teargas to Disperse Protesters, Reporters
Total Set to Back Mozambique LNG Terminal to Boost Gas Imports 
Mozambique Opposition Lawyer's Murder Draws Global Outrage
World's Top Ruby Mine in Mozambique Stormed After 'Fake' Notice

News Roundup

South Africa is poised for a surge in initial public offerings and fund-raising activity as soon as next year, spurred by optimism that the continent's biggest economy may be turning a corner after years of lackluster growth, according to JPMorgan Chase. The formation of a business-friendly governing coalition after May elections, which saw the African National Congress lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994, has boosted sentiment. That's triggered a wave of investment by multinationals and rallies in the nation's currency, bonds and stocks. 

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Photographer: Guillem Sartorio/AFP/Getty Images

The Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet, which seeks to combat climate change, is piloting a solar mini-grid program in Nigeria that could help provide answers to the erratic power supplies that sap productivity in Africa's most-populous nation. The organization, formed in 2021 by the Rockefeller Foundation, the Bezos Earth Fund and the Ikea Foundation, helped build the first so-called interconnected mini-grid in December. Two more are under construction and there is funding available for a fourth. 

Zambia plans to develop dozens of mining projects together with investors to boost copper output in the continent's second-biggest producer. The increase would require companies to spend billions of dollars to transform early stage developments into operating mines. More than 40 permits reserved by the mines ministry will be transferred to a state company, which will then negotiate agreements with partners, Jito Kayumba, an assistant to President Hakainde Hichilema, said in an interview. 

A worker marks copper plates at a refinery operated by Mopani Copper Mines in Mufulira, Zambia. Photographer: Zinyange Auntony/Bloomberg

Girls and young women may be more susceptible to an infectious subvariant of the virus that causes mpox that has spread from Democratic Republic of Congo to neighboring countries, a study showed. The median age of 154 people who tested positive for mpox in Burundi between early July and September was 9.5 years, researchers said in the scientific journal Eurosurveillance. The average age of girls infected was 6 years, while it was 17.5 years for boys. 

The outlook is mixed for major African currencies going into the next year, with South Africa's rand set to outperform and Nigeria's naira facing more pain before things get better, according to Ebury Partners. The London-based firm also penciled in losses for Angola's kwanza and the Ghanaian cedi, while it expects the Kenyan shilling, Ugandan shilling and Zambian kwacha to hold their ground. Its analysis is based on the economic fundamentals of each country and the outlook for commodity prices.

Turkey and Niger signed a pact to boost cooperation in mining, a sign that they are forging closer ties as new powers jostle for access to the West African nation's uranium resources. It's unclear if Niger, which has been controlled by a junta since a coup last year and is one of the world's biggest uranium producers, is weighing giving Turkey access to undeveloped or existing mines. The military government revoked uranium permits from French and Canadian companies shortly after coming to power. Since then Russia has sought to take over some assets.

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz and congratulations to Sammy Kibet, who was the first to name Libya as the country whose diplomat was summoned by Nigeria to protest the treatment of its national football team.

Chart of the Week


The BRICS group of emerging-market powers kicked off a three-day summit in Kazan, Russia, with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa among the visiting attendees. The bloc's clout is growing: Its nine members account for 26% of the world economy and 45% of the world's population, versus the Group of Seven's 44% of global gross domestic product and 10% of its inhabitants.

No comments:

Post a Comment

La société de gestion du mois: SwissLife Asset Managers

Tout savoir sur son expertise en infrastructures non-cotées͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ...