Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Next Africa: Currency experiment teeters

Zimbabwe's currency experiment struggles

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Just six months in and Zimbabwe's latest currency experiment looks like it might be going down a dead end.

Almost half the value of the ZiG, short for Zimbabwe Gold, has been wiped out since its early April debut. That's left businesses and ordinary citizens counting their losses and also weighing how much longer the local currency has until the central bank retires it.

A bank customer displays ZiG coins. Photographer: Cynthia R Matonhodze/Bloomberg

The central bank devalued the ZiG by 43% against the dollar on Friday. That suggests its time of reckoning has arrived, dashing Zimbabweans' hopes for currency stability.

For weeks, the ZiG stacked up declines on both the official and parallel markets, rendering a pricing nightmare for businesses. In the end, even its promise of being backed by gold and foreign-currency reserves — at a time when bullion is trading at record highs and as Zimbabwe produces the metal — may not stop it from walking down the path of ruin taken by its five predecessors since 2009.

The signs are ominous. 

Inflation is surging. There aren't enough US dollars circulating in the economy, and Zimbabwe is suffering through its worst drought in four decades. The central bank on Friday also surprised with an interest-rate hike of 35%, signaling a desperate act to save the ZiG.

John Mushayavanhu Photographer: Cynthia R Matonhodze/Bloomberg

For Governor John Mushayavanhu, the latest currency turmoil rips apart his promise to be different.

"Not under my watch," is how Mushayavanhu unveiled the ZiG to wary Zimbabweans — who haven't known a stable local currency for the past 15 years — while promising a fresh start.

Once again, Zimbabweans find themselves in an all-too-familiar situation of watching their currency implode.

Inevitably, the collapse will drive them to cling onto dollars and reject the ZiG, foiling the grand plan by authorities to finally ditch the US currency.

Key stories and opinion:  
Meet Zimbabwe's Gold-Backed Shot at a Stable Currency: QuickTake

Zimbabwe's Gold-Backed ZiG Weakens Further After Devaluation
Zimbabwe Central Bank Mulls More Measures to Protect Currency
Zimbabwe Central Bank Plans Crackdown on ZiG Currency Saboteurs

News Roundup

Billionaire Gautam Adani's proposal to run Kenya's main airport has sparked protests, Senate hearings and lawsuits against the group controlled by Asia's second-richest man, even as it bags a deal to construct high-voltage power-transmission lines in the East African nation.

Stranded passengers outside Jomo Kenyatta International Airport during a strike by aviation workers in Nairobi in September. Photographer: Kang-Chun Cheng/Bloomberg

Nigeria is set to approve Exxon Mobil's sale of its oil and gas assets to domestic energy supplier Seplat Energy, President Bola Tinubu said. Seplat has previously said that acquiring Exxon's assets would almost quadruple its oil output to more than 130,000 barrels per day. Africa's largest oil producer has consistently failed to meet its OPEC target because of years of underinvestment in its oil industry, a key driver of economic growth and government revenue. 

The population of Rwanda's capital roughly doubled in the last two decades. But the real challenge comes when it does so again over the next 2 ½ decades as rural citizens flood urban centers in search of opportunities. Separately, the nation has reported nine deaths from its first-ever Marburg virus outbreak and confirmed 18 patients are in isolation, according to its health ministry. 

New homes on the Bwiza Riverside Estate in Kigali. Photographer: Luke Dray/Getty Images Europe

Top global cocoa producer Ivory Coast has raised the price it pays farmers for their beans above what no. 2 source Ghana is paying, even as growers in both countries will continue to receive far less than the global market rate. This may help to discourage smuggling of Ivorian beans to Ghana, even though the risk of the illegal exports to nations including Liberia and Guinea won't be fully addressed because buyers there pay rates closer to the world market price.

South Africa's benchmark bond yield fell below 10% for the first time in more than two years as the nation's deputy president amplified growing confidence that the continent's biggest economy is turning a corner. "We think that by next year we could be growing about 1.5%," Paul Mashatile said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London.

WATCH: South African Deputy President Paul Mashatile speaks on Bloomberg Television

Hotel bookings in Mauritius have recovered after the Olympics and European elections delayed holiday-travel decisions, according to the head of Sun, an operator of luxury hotels in the Indian Ocean island nation. Meanwhile, Mauritius-based conglomerate Ciel plans to increase output at its textile factories in India by about a third to boost supply to brands including Hugo Boss, Lacoste and Superdry. 

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa quiz and congratulations to Craig Thompson, who was the first to name Angola as the  country that US President Joe Biden plans to visit on his first trip to Africa.

Chart of the Week

South African stocks had their strongest third quarter for 11 years and investors see the gains extending. The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index climbed 8.6% in the three months to Sept. 30, notching 13 record highs in the process and outpacing a rally in MSCI's gauge of emerging-market equities. "Despite strong gains, we see further room for outperformance, aided by front-loading of rate cuts," Goldman Sachs strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote.

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