| Anyone telling you they know the outcome of next month's presidential election is selling snake oil. That doesn't mean you don't need a financial plan for it. With less than two weeks to go, the ideas for how to position yourself ahead of either candidate's victory are as endless as they are laden with risk. Buy crypto. Buy Tesla. Buy gold. Sell stocks. Sell bonds. Dump cash. Leave the country. You've probably heard at least some of this chatter in recent weeks. And some of it is truly just anxious chatter you should ignore. Some of it, however, forms the basis of Wall Street maneuvering, with the so-called Trump trade coming back into vogue. That strategy involves investors placing bets on stocks, bonds, currencies and other assets that might benefit from a second Trump presidency. (Some investors are also positioning themselves in anticipation of a Harris win, in which sectors like health care may get a boost.) Because the race is essentially a coin toss according to recent polls, the odds of some of the above making you money, at least in the short-term, aren't terrible. What should you do? "It's a barbell," Samuel Nofzinger, general manager of brokerage at investing platform Public, told me this week about how clients are behaving. People are either feverishly taking new positions ahead of the election, or increasing their cash balances and holding tight, he said. Nofzinger isn't endorsing either strategy, and says — as many conventional financial advisers do — that elections shouldn't change your investment strategy. Making moves now, he says, would be risky. And in an ideal world you'd have such a well crafted portfolio it could withstand the sort of volatility shocks that come from unexpected events, such as surprise electoral outcomes. But some clients have strong convictions and want to make moves now. Alvina Lo, chief wealth strategist at Wilmington Trust, has a suggestion for them. In general, investors should tune out noise and not make knee-jerk decisions, she says. But if they are adamant about shifting their portfolios, they might consider doing so as part of regularly scheduled year-end maintenance like tax-loss harvesting, which is the sale of losing securities to offset gains from others. It's usually done at year end, but Lo makes the point that it doesn't have to happen on December 31st. You can start, carefully, now. "If you have a strong conviction now and it does make you sleep better to make a slight adjustment to your portfolio, then I say go ahead and do it," she says, reiterating that tax-loss harvesting should be done cautiously and not in a vacuum. Colin Moynahan, financial adviser for Twenty Fifty Capital, says clients have been telling him we're in a "weird" election. Neither candidate has been particularly heavy on policy proposals, and a lot of it is just coming down to personality. But he says investors should remember soon after the election to mind proposals on estate taxes brought in during the first Trump administration that are set to expire at the end of 2025. "Those who aren't proactively planning or staying very close to the news on any sort of change there could potentially pay more than really needed," he says. Overall, however, advisers overwhelmingly want clients to hold fast. "While elections may introduce temporary market shifts, it's key for investors to maintain a long-term perspective," says Alex Michalka, vice president of investment research at Wealthfront. "We analyzed US stock market data from 1927 to 2023 and found that election years typically don't significantly impact investment performance, and neither does a particular party winning." Scott Cole, president of Cole Financial Planning and Wealth Management, tells clients that it's normal to see a lot of volatility around elections. But ultimately he says, markets care about one thing, and that is making money. "There may be an immediate reaction that is emotional, but then they'll recalibrate and figure out how to make money in that administration," he says. My take from all this? If you want to do something, make a plan to help prevent yourself from overreacting in the days ahead. — Charlie Wells P.S. Send questions about your own financial dilemmas to bbgwealth@bloomberg.net. We may get expert answers for you, and feature your question and the answer in an upcoming newsletter. Tesla shares climbed in early trading Thursday after the carmaker reported surprisingly strong earnings and forecast as much as 30% growth in vehicle sales next year. Third-quarter results were buoyed by Tesla turning a corner with the Cybertruck, which contributed to profit for the first time. Lower material costs, an expanding energy business and sales of regulatory credits to automakers that need help complying with emissions standards also contributed to Tesla's biggest quarterly profit in more than a year. The US Treasury market is flashing a fresh warning sign of mounting risks as yields surge. The so-called term premium on 10-year Treasury notes has risen from near zero to just under a quarter point so far this month to the highest since last November. The jump in term premium comes amid a deepening bond market selloff as traders price in a shallower path of Fed interest-rate cuts in the face of resilient economic data. Also playing an important role in the past week is a very tight presidential race and a growing feeling among some investors that the Republican party has the chance of gaining control of Congress and the White House. That outcome is seen as increasing the prospect of more spending and tax cuts — on top of potential inflationary pressure from Donald Trump's proposed tariff regime — at a time when US borrowing is highly elevated. The biggest gainers and losers on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index over the past week: Steve Ballmer was one of the biggest gainers in dollar terms this week, with an addition of $2.7 billion taking his current net worth to $147.3 billion. Much of the former Microsoft CEO's wealth is tied up in the company stock, up over 28% from a year ago. Michael Dell, meanwhile, was one of the biggest losers in dollar terms. He lost $3.3 billion, taking his net worth down to $115.4 billion. Dell has been on a selling spree of late, offloading 10 million shares of his namesake company's stock in late September, his second significant sale that month, according to regulatory filings. Sand Castle Mansion Lists for $108 Million in a San Diego Record  Source: Austin Ashline of Future Home Photos The Sand Castle, a clifftop mansion overlooking the Pacific Ocean in La Jolla, California, has been listed for $108 million, more than double the current record for a home sale in San Diego County. Owned by tech billionaire Darwin Deason, the sprawling estate was formed by combining two adjacent lots that Deason purchased in 2009. Inspired by the luxurious homes of the French Riviera and Palm Beach, he undertook a full-scale remodel that was completed in 2015. The house got its nickname as the Sand Castle for its beige exterior and fortress-like design. Boxer Floyd Mayweather to Buy $402 Million of NYC Apartments Former boxer Floyd Mayweather struck a deal to buy a $402 million affordable-housing portfolio in New York City, a sizable transaction for a property market that's been largely stalled by higher borrowing costs. Many of the more than 60 properties being purchased are located in upper Manhattan, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified citing private information. A representative for the seller, Black Spruce Management, declined to comment. Mayweather acknowledged the deal on Twitter, while a spokesperson for the boxer didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. This week, we're looking for people who are betting on the US election, or who are making big moves ahead of voting day — even if they know there are big risks involved. Some of our best journalism at Bloomberg Wealth comes from your own stories and we'd love to hear from you, your friends or clients. Please email bbgwealth@bloomberg.net or fill out this form. Against the backdrop of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP29, we convene the foremost leaders in business, finance, policy, academia and NGOs for candid conversations focused on helping meet the conference's goals. Join us in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 13. Learn more. | 
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