Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Helene’s deadly lessons

Risks are moving inland |

Katrina, Sandy and now Helene. The hurricane that tore through the US Southeast this week joins the list of the country's most damaging storms.

Today's newsletter looks at the new risks being brought by hurricanes as climate change contributes to torrential rains. You can read our top story and catch up with continuing coverage of the hurricane aftermath on Bloomberg.com

Hurricanes are not just coastal problems anymore

By Lauren Rosenthal

Hurricane Helene has killed more than 100 people in six states across the US South — and most of the victims lived hundreds of miles away from where the storm made landfall.

After striking Florida's western coast last week, Helene unleashed catastrophic flooding across Appalachia. Its devastation came down to two primary factors: its massive size and the significant amount of moisture it absorbed over open water.

Sweltering ocean temperatures driven by climate change are allowing storms to pull in more water vapor, triggering torrential rainfall. And while researchers don't attribute cyclone size to global warming, Helene's width — with winds that extended more than 310 miles (499 kilometers) at landfall, it was larger than 90% of hurricanes in the region over the past two decades — meant that it inundated cities and towns far from the coast.

A damaged house and dock after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Keaton Beach, Florida, on Sept. 27. Photographer: Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/AFP/Getty Images

Helene's havoc shows how a hotter planet translates to more people in harm's way when extreme weather strikes, challenging assumptions about how to prepare for storms and other natural disasters. Residents along parts of Florida's western coast faced evacuation orders as Helene approached, but people to the north largely did not receive similar warnings until dam failures appeared imminent.

The storm's wind and rains were both exceptionally strong. Research has shown that warming oceans caused by climate change are fueling more major hurricanes, defined as a Category 3 or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricanes are now more likely to undergo rapid intensification, exploding in power over a short period of time, and have also become more likely to inflict severe rainfall.

"Helene was, to put it directly, sort of the worst of all things," said John Cangialosi, senior hurricane specialist with the US National Hurricane Center in Miami. "It's one of those all-hazards hurricanes. You'll hear that some storms are wind machines, and some are storm surge producers, and some bring rain. Helene produced all of these hazards — significantly."

Read the full story here — and for unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe.

Helene joins a depressing list of names

By Brian K Sullivan

AccuWeather Inc. estimated on Monday morning the total damage and economic loss from Helene may be as high as $160 billion. That's up sharply from the $95 billion to $110 billion range it forecast late last week, before the magnitude of devastation became apparent. If losses match those preliminary estimates, Helene will go down as one of the nation's top five most costly storms ever, the forecaster said.

"This is going to be one of the worst natural disasters in US history in terms of total damage and economic loss and the tremendous and urgent humanitarian crisis that is going on right now," said Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather.

Relatively little will be insured 

$10 billion
This is the high-end estimate for the insured amount of damages caused by Helene, according to a new Bloomberg Intelligence report, which cited reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter.

Lessons to be learned

"The human and financial tragedy wrought by Hurricane Helene is just emerging, with the storm's rapid intensification as it approached land a key lesson in rising risk for insurers and reinsurers like Munich Re and Swiss Re."
Charles Graham and Kevin Ryan
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analysts 
In a Bloomberg Intelligence report today, Graham and Ryan cover Helene's impact on the reinsurance market. Terminal subscribers can read their full analysis here. Also, learn more through Bloomberg Green's Uncovered Series, where we investigate how climate change is making parts of the planet uninsurable.

Also on our radar

By Cindy Wang and Miaojung Lin

Taiwan authorities completed the dramatic helicopter rescue of 19 crew members on a stricken ship, which foundered as Super Typhoon Krathon brings strong winds and heavy rains to the island.

All those on the Barbados-registered "Blue Lagoon" were rescued, the coast guard said in a statement. Rescuers used helicopters to lift the seafarers from the rolling deck of the bulk carrier, hours after the crew decided to abandon the sinking ship. 

The successful rescue underscores Taiwan's efforts to rapidly respond to the typhoon, which include releasing water from dams and dispatching hundreds of military personnel to the south and east of the island, which is already experiencing heavy rain. Still, the storm is expected to lash more of the island, which canceled all 234 domestic flights scheduled for Wednesday.

A coast guard member keeps watch for people nearing the coast at Badouzi Harbour in Keelung on September 30, 2024, as Typhoon Krathon nears.  Photographer: YAN ZHAO/AFP

More from Green

Southeast Asia will miss its renewable energy production goal, highlighting the difficulties in weaning the region off fossil fuels like coal and liquefied natural gas, according to an intergovernmental think tank.

Clean power will make up 19% of the regional total by the end of next year, the ASEAN Centre for Energy said in a report, compared with an Association of Southeast Asian Nations target of 23%. Southeast Asia may become a net importer of LNG by 2027, it said.

Industrial and transport sectors in bigger economies like Indonesia and Vietnam are the main power consumers, but household electrification in smaller countries like Cambodia will also contribute to a more than doubling demand by 2050, said Zulfikar Yurnaidi, head of energy modeling and policy planning at the think tank. 

Photographer: Veejay Villafranca/Bloomberg

Don't assume rate cuts will help clean energy. This is the view of Barry Norris, the founder and chief investment officer of UK hedge fund Argonaut Capital Partners. He says reliance on subsidies is undermining the appeal of green assets.

The face of building electrification quits. BlocPower, a New York-based climate startup once seen as leading the push to retrofit urban buildings for clean energy, is charting a new course this week after its co-founder and chief executive stepped down. 

Climate upgrades are getting costlier for offices. The bill to upgrade Europe's aging cities for a zero-carbon future keeps on rising, and it's becoming an increasingly risky bet as property valuations plunge.

Worth a listen

Scientists have been trying to understand — and mimic — the way the sun produces energy for centuries. But recreating the energy-generating process of nuclear fusion here on Earth presents an array of technical challenges. Bob Mumgaard, CEO of Commonwealth Fusion Systems, began working on some of those challenges as a doctoral student at MIT. Now backed by more than $2 billion, CFS is well on its way to making the long-held dream of nuclear fusion a reality. On the latest episode of Zero, Mumgaard breaks down the science behind CFS's bagel-shaped tokamak reactor, and explains why he believes the nuclear fusion industry is just getting started. Listen now, and subscribe on Apple,  Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

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