"Aggressive" is not a term I would normally associate with the Bank of England's quietly-spoken governor, but it was Andrew Bailey's word of choice today. He said the Bank could become a "bit more aggressive" and "a bit more activist" in its approach to cutting rates if the news on inflation continued to be good. And boy, it sure had an effect. The pound took an early bath when Bailey's interview, given to the Guardian newspaper, emerged this morning. At one stage the currency was facing its worst week since February 2023. On Monday sterling was above $1.34 and now, at the time of writing, it's close to $1.31. That's some drop. I should point out that cable — the market jargon for £/$ — is still way up on the year, but the reversal of September's bullish sprint is nonetheless pertinent. It's good news if you're about to fly to New York; or if, like me, you have a chunky mortgage; or if you're a British exporter of price-sensitive goods. A weaker pound also makes UK assets more attractive to foreign bidders, which I guess is one way of luring foreign investment. Expect this to be a theme of the next week as we gear up for the first International Investment Summit since Labour came to power. Britain's poor level of investment is oft-mentioned, and today Bloomberg's team of economists have urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to tweak the fiscal rules to release £30 billion — a tidy enough amount to improve infrastructure and other projects needed to boost growth. Next month's budget would be an appropriate time to reveal new fiscal rules, which, let's be honest, tend to change even more frequently than those imposed by Premier League referees. But therein lies a problem. Not with the referees (for once), but with the budget, which comes two weeks after the investment summit. Rachel Reeves at the Labour conference in Liverpool last week. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg Labour is effectively asking the holders of some of the world's purse strings to put money into Britain before telling them what it is going to tax and by how much. It is also yet to reveal its industrial strategy, and has spent much of the last three months trash-talking the economy. Growth may get a lift in the coming months if Bailey follows through on his hint of more "aggressive" and "activist" rate cuts. It would give Labour a helping hand in its race to top the G7 — but a quarter of a point here or there would also pale into insignificance if the government doesn't play its own hand wisely. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. |
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