Thursday, October 24, 2024

Growth down, gilts down

The Readout with Julian Harris

Take a deep breath — there are only half a million seconds to go until Rachel Reeves stands at the despatch box to deliver her first budget as chancellor of the Exchequer.

Yes, I did the math(s).

Reeves and the prime minister could be forgiven for wishing the time would pass sooner, as each day (aka 86,400 seconds) seems to bring more bad news.

Ignoring the rows over Labour support for Kamala Harris's presidential campaign and the awkwardness of Vladimir Putin's BRICS summit, back at home the economy has stuttered to its slowest growth for almost a year — at least according to the latest purchasing managers' index from S&P Global.

S&P's surveys, like many others, attribute some of the downturn to the overwhelming sense of misery, gloom and tax hikes (my words) that has stopped businesses from making major decisions, and limited how much people are buying.

This kind of sentiment can be easily reversed, for example with a strong budget that removes uncertainty, but one thing that can't is the shutting down of companies. So it's worrying to see thousands of solvent businesses being wound up seemingly because their founders fear a tax raid on their capital gains.

The rate of these closures has doubled since this time last year, Bloomberg reported today.

The numbers followed Keir Starmer's insistence that the budget will not drive entrepreneurs away from Britain (whether or not they are giving up on their companies.) Let's hope he's right, but either way, these are not the kind of questions the prime minister will have wanted to face during a 9,500-mile trip to Samoa.

Reeves, meanwhile, is putting on a brave face during her own excursion to the US and will be sitting down for a chat with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at around the time that you read this. Earlier, Reeves effectively confirmed that she was changing the UK's (self-imposed) fiscal rules to allow for more borrowing to fund infrastructure projects and boost growth.

Her plan to take on more debt has lifted the government's cost of borrowing to a slightly startling degree and gilts tumbled again after this afternoon's news. However, it's worth noting that they are still higher than 10 days ago. Overall, the bond markets remain just about on side — which is some good news, at least.

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What just happened

The stories you need to know about this evening

One to another

Mike Ashley has ants in his pants. Or that's how it seems this week, with the charismatic retail tycoon triggering some kind of drama almost every morning.

Today he demanded to become the new CEO of fast-fashion brand Boohoo, which has lost its way and suffered a huge drop in its share price.

Mike Ashley, founder of Frasers Group Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

An open letter from Frasers — Ashley's company — attacking the Boohoo board came just 24 hours after it pulled out of an equally combative attempt to take over Mulberry, the maker of bizarrely-expensive (to my parsimonious eyes) handbags.

It's little wonder that Ashley handed over the day-to-day running of Frasers' stores, like Sports Direct, to his son-in-law. The move raised eyebrows back in 2022 but it's increasingly clear that it allows the billionaire to manage the company's various investments in other retailers — and the activist approach that often comes with that strategy.

The big number

£1.5 billion
The minimum size of a mega loan offered to Thames Water from its most vulnerable creditors to help save it from going under.

The Iranian oil trader's hedge fund that manages millions from a west London office

180 Brompton Road in Knightsbridge Source: Google Streetview/Google Streetview

One key story, every weekday

Just a few streets from Harrods sits an office that's a key cog in an Iranian oil kingpin's financial empire.

180 Brompton Road is one of the main outposts for Ocean Leonid Investments, a hedge fund overseen by Hossein Shamkhani, the secretive commodities trader whose network is an influential player in both Iran and Russia, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the matter and documents seen by Bloomberg.

Read the full story.

More from Bloomberg

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