The stock market appears to have everything priced in  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

October 04, 2024   |   Read Online Brought to you by: "Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand." — Homer Simpson Friday no-change charts The stock market appears to have everything priced in. An amazingly strong jobs report failed to move stock prices today, even though the primary market worry seemed to be a weakening jobs market.  Even more unexpectedly, the North Carolina mining operation that provides 90% of the global supply of quartz needed to make semiconductors suddenly found itself fully underwater at the start of the week — but the hivemind of semiconductor stocks seemed to think it wouldn't matter much. (It was right. The mines suffered only "minor damage," as it turns out.)  Similarly, neither war in the Middle East nor the upcoming election (the most consequential of our lifetimes, they keep telling us) has stopped equities from hanging around their all-time highs. Most impressively, stocks seemed to know that the East Coast port strike that threatened to grind global trade to a halt at the start of the week would be settled quickly and peacefully. It was. What does the market know that we don't? Maybe it's just that things are good. When port workers can extract a 62% raise (over six years) in return for a promise to stay on the job for three months before making some more demands, perhaps it's a sign that both labor and capital are doing very well. Labor is certainly feeling its oats, with even writers of overly long-form journalism (aka, The New Yorker) and newly unionized people grading trading cards now threatening to put their laptops and Pokemon cards down and go out on strike. You wouldn't expect these types of service workers to have the same bargaining power as longshoremen — but in an economy where the convenience store Buc-ee's is paying store managers as much as $225,000 a year, maybe they do? Amazingly, all this is happening at a time when the Fed has just embarked on a new easing cycle, creating a unique economy in which interest rates are falling at the same time that corporate profits are rising. There are risks, of course — spreading war, resurgent inflation, peak profit margins, snarled supply chains, stretched valuation, a Fed mistake (in either direction)... But just because the market doesn't seem to care about any of these things doesn't mean it doesn't understand them. Let's check the charts. Jobs are plentiful again: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 in September; July and August jobs data was revised 72,000 jobs higher; and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% — a full reversal of the recent narrative of an economy on the precipice of recession. Prime-time workers: The labor force participation rate for prime-age workers remained near all-time highs. The rate for native-born workers is the highest on record (contrary to the political narrative). Another myth buster? For all the concern about US money printing, Scott Grannis notes US money supply is nearly back to trend. Trend change: The rate of US obesity has turned lower, which might create a multi-decade economic tailwind with all kinds of positive knock-on effects. No trend change: The bull market in US equities turned two years old this week. The S&P's 60.7% gain from the lows makes it the fourth best bull market of all time.  Ned Davis Research, noting that these things rarely die of old age, believes that "the path of least resistance is a continuation of the bull market." Good timing? Equities tend to rise after presidential elections. That's probably because, whoever wins, 50% of Americans will feel more optimistic as a result. This time seems no different, with many business and investment decisions seemingly put on hold pending the election.  The economist Mark Zandi notes this morning's data is evidence that the "economy is about as good as it gets" and that may be the last bear case for US equities and the economy — if things can't get any better, it may be that they can only get worse. But I wouldn't worry about it — the market probably has that priced in, too. Have a great weekend, understanding readers. — Byron Gilliam Brought to you by: Fuel is launching the final phase of our Fuel Points Program, beginning with the upcoming launch of the Fuel Mainnet. With Phase 2, you can earn points while supporting the growth of the Fuel ecosystem! Phase 2 of Fuel Points ensures that the network grows in a way that is positive sum for points program participants, the Fuel ecosystem projects and the broader Fuel community. Qualifying users can participate and earn rewards for meaningfully engaging with the ecosystem. Join now to maximize your rewards! Register for the Fuel Points Program Exploring the 'Uptober' drivers and current outlook Institutions could be Solana's edge against Ethereum BIO protocol is pushing scientific funding onchain Imprisoned Binance exec a 'legendary' crypto crime investigator Election outcome and SEC appeal to decide XRP ETF future A Founder's Mindset, DePIN's Breakthrough and Stablecoin Models Santi and Jason discuss their respective journeys as founders and investors. Tune in for analysis on the growing success of DePIN and payments systems on Solana and their break-down of BitGo's new stablecoin model. Watch or listen to Empire on YouTube, Spotify or Apple. Permissionless is bringing together a bipartisan group of congressional voices, key regulators, and legal counsel from the largest companies in the space to discuss what's in store for crypto in the US.  Don't miss it — join us at Permissionless. Buy tickets Kathy Jones @KathyJones Real wages are rising by about 1.5% to 2.0% while productivity is rising by 2% to 2.5%. Adding jobs is not necessarily inflationary. Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV "Inflation is not dead," Mohamed El-Erian, Queens' College Cambridge president, says while discussing what the September US employment report means for the economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy trib.al/XDw3TOR   2:28 PM • Oct 4, 2024     48 Likes   14 Retweets   6 Replies Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla NYT: ".. one of the pandemic's most unexpected economic legacies: an entrepreneurial boom. .. Americans started businesses at the fastest rate in decades." @nytimes@bencasselman 🇺🇸 nytimes.com/2024/10/04/bus…   3:55 PM • Oct 4, 2024     53 Likes   20 Retweets   5 Replies Noelle Acheson @NoelleInMadrid Yesterday SWIFT confirmed its hefty foray into digital asset services, in a move that not only underscores expectation that all banks will soon be tokenizing, but also highlights the role of plumbing. This is about more than messaging. It's about structural transformation. 🧵   6:32 PM • Oct 4, 2024     11 Likes   0 Retweets   2 Replies   Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2024 Blockworks 133 W 19TH ST New York, New York 10011, United States of America Terms of Service