Saturday, October 12, 2024

Florida under siege

Bloomberg Weekend Reading

Note to readers: This is the last Weekend Reading newsletter. Next Saturday, you'll receive our new Weekend Edition newsletter, filled with the big ideas and open questions at the fascinating places where finance, life and culture meet. Manage your newsletter preferences anytime here.

As Florida and a wide swath of the US Southeast reel from back-to-back hurricanes, the damage wrought by such global warming-fueled storms demonstrates how unpredictable and catastrophic they can be. In a dangerous twist, Hurricane Milton's wind shear and thunderstorms before it made landfall from the west spawned a rash of deadly tornadoes on the far side of the state. That's in contrast to Hurricane Helene, which drenched parts of the southeastern US with heavy rain for days, both before and after landfall, triggering floods and killing more than 230 people. The full scope of Milton's destruction won't be known for days or perhaps weeks, but the storm left millions without power, destroyed scores of homes, buildings and crops and ripped the roof off the Tamp Bay Rays stadium. At least 10 people died, and officials warn that number could rise as search-and-rescue efforts continue. Losses from Milton may reach $60 billion to $75 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. AccuWeather put the cost much higher, at $160 billion to $180 billion. Around the world, natural catastrophes are becoming more expensive, more common and more powerful as climate change supercharges storms and wildfires.

A flooded street after Hurricane Milton in St. Pete Beach, Florida. Photographer: Tristan Wheelock/Bloomberg

Adding to their troubles, Floridians face raw sewage flowing into their streets and rivers, as well as a flood of falsehoods from Donald Trump and his followers, including a Republican Congresswoman who says the Biden administration controls the weather. Trump, 78, has used the twin disasters as a reason to hurl misinformation in often disjointed, rambling speeches at his Democratic opponent for the presidency, Kamala Harris, 59. It's another unprecedented tactic, one President Joe Biden has condemned as endangering American lives. "False claims create confusion for people in need of relief," writes Barbara McQuade for Bloomberg Opinion. "Responding to emergencies should be a unifying event, not an opportunity for division." 

What you'll want to read this weekend

"Inflation is dying, but not dead," Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, declared after new numbers showed, at least by one measure, inflation sticking around. That, coupled with last week's blowout US jobs report, complicates the debate over the Federal Reserve's next move: Does it opt for a small interest-rate cut or a pause after a large September reduction? The latest jobs report also renewed chatter in bond market circles about the "no landing" scenario, a situation in which the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Fed has little room to cut rates. Then there's the safe haven, gold, which has surged to new heights (and weirdly caught the attention of Costco shoppers).

Harris and Trump are both vowing to juice the US economy with some combination of tax cuts and new spending, all of which would boost an already-galactic deficit and national debt and have to be passed by an evenly split Congress anyway (and would come as the economy is doing just fine). Then there's all the talk about tariffs. Harris seems poised to keep those that exist while Trump—who began the trade war with China six years ago—has promised to vastly expand them—a move economists note will blow up the recovery engineered in part by the Fed. The head of the biggest US business lobbying group, Suzanne Clark, criticized both nominees, saying their ideas are bad for American companies and individuals. Tariffs, experts note, aren't simple and are rarely tidy, and these two American towns highlight the surprising consequences of trying to protect US jobs.

Israel has yet to decide how to retaliate against Iran for last week's missile attack. The US is pressing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit his response against Iran to military targets and also proposing a fresh round of economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The US, European and Arab states are concerned that a major Israeli attack on Iran could trigger a wider war that would force Washington to intervene directly, endangering American military personnel, pushing up energy prices and hurting the global economy. Israel also has continued its strikes on Lebanon, which it says are aimed at Hezbollah. The militant group has been firing missiles into northern Israel. Israel has killed more than 1,500 people in Lebanon, the government there reported, while the war in Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands, goes on.

Journalists report from a vantage point overlooking the Dahieh area of Beirut after an Israeli air strike. Photographer: Carl Court/Getty Images Europe

Google, long dominant in the search space, is facing an antitrust fight in the US that could result in the historic breakup of one of the world's biggest tech companies. In a span of three days, a federal judge ordered the company to open up its lucrative app store to rivals and the Justice Department said it may seek to force it to spin off some services as an antirust remedy. Fellow tech giant Apple, for its part, is inching away from its annual product upgrade cycle, a move that could lead to more frequent releases and fewer jarring delays.

Pain is a fact of life, from accidents to injuries, medical conditions to changes as we grow and age. Science is finding new ways to manage our discomforts, and this week's episode of The Future with Hannah Fry explores cutting-edge research that could move medicine beyond opioids and their deadly fallout. On The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly, David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group, discusses his recent acquisition of the Baltimore Orioles, his hometown team.  

David Rubenstein, left, on the The Deal with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Kelly

What you'll need to know next week

Musk's Risky Robotaxi Bet Is Already in Trouble

Elon Musk and his six companies have become a sort-of diversified economy, with Tesla holding up the fort. That's why Musk's abrupt decision to change the strategic direction of the company—to prioritize building a driverless, steering-wheel-free robotaxi over a more-affordable, standard electric vehicle— is arguably so risky. So far, reception has been tepid, which may be a bit charitable given that Wall Street took away almost 10% of the company's market cap. So why is it so risky, and why is the mercurial billionaire taking that risk? Here's why

A prototype of the Tesla Cybercab Source: Tesla Inc.

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