Monday, October 14, 2024

Europe’s fading influence

The European Union faces a tipping point

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It was the evening of June 9 when things really started going awry.

Initial returns for the European parliamentary elections were reassuring for investors, with mainstream parties set to retain control, despite gains for populist forces.

Then Emmanuel Macron weighed in.

The French president's party had been soundly beaten by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and so, in an attempt to regain the initiative, Macron called a snap election.

That decision plunged the European Union's second-biggest economy into months of market turmoil and political uncertainty from which it has only partially emerged.

Since then, the bad news has been piling up across the region.

WATCH: Macron warns that the EU could die if it doesn't boost its competitiveness with China and the US. Source: Bloomberg

Germany, the EU's traditional powerhouse, is mired in recession, its car industry is fumbling the transition to electric vehicles and suffering from the slowdown in China, while a €30 billion ($33 billion) semiconductor plan based on troubled Intel is unraveling.

US tech giants are turning their backs on the 27-nation bloc because of restrictions on AI. Even Spain, traditionally one of the most pro-EU members, is taking potshots at its trade policy.

Europe's politicians have been slow to catch on to the scale of the problems, and now they are bitterly divided over what to do.

It looks like a tipping point for the European project. The world is changing quickly and if the EU fails to catch up, it risks being permanently relegated to a second tier of global powers.

To be sure, living standards aren't about to collapse. The EU has surmounted existential crises before. But the longer the current trends persist, the greater Europe's vulnerability will become. 

Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Sept. 9. Photographer: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

The US is sending Israel an advanced missile system known as the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery along with a crew of troops to operate it to help shield its ally from attacks by Iran. Four Israeli soldiers were killed and dozens were wounded in a drone attack by Hezbollah on a training base south of Haifa in one of the deadliest strikes against Israeli forces since they stepped up attacks on Lebanon.

China's armed forces held more drills around Taiwan that they said were intended as a warning to the democratically run government to halt "separatist acts." The activity involved practicing a "blockade on key ports and areas" — the first time the People's Liberation Army has said that. The exercises underscore China's persistent efforts to squeeze new Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, whom it views as pushing to formalize Taiwan's independence from the mainland.

With polls suggesting Donald Trump is gaining support among Black voters, Vice President Kamala Harris today proposed a new program for Black entrepreneurs and others who have faced barriers to accessing financing. The Democratic nominee also pledged to support a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, to give more investment certainty to the 20% of Black Americans who own — or have owned — digital assets, and vowed to work with Congress to legalize recreational marijuana.

The presidential candidate of Mozambique's ruling Frelimo party, Daniel Chapo, took an early lead as votes were tallied from an election widely expected to extend its 49-year rule. A new independent challenger, Venancio Mondlane, was in second place after riding a wave of youthful discontent in the gas-rich nation. His strong showing may enable him to win support for protesting the results, which he and some observers allege were tainted by irregularities including possible ballot-box stuffing.

North Korea ordered troops along its southern border to stand ready to fire and military leaders in Seoul said Pyongyang may be preparing to blow up roads connecting the two nations. Kim Jong Un's regime accused South Korea of sending drones into its capital, calling it a "war provocation." Officials in Seoul have previously warned that North Korea may be considering a nuclear test closer to the US presidential election.

China's latest move to ramp up support for the economy, promising more aid for the slumping property sector and indebted local governments, hasn't convinced economists the authorities are doing enough to defeat deflation.

Lithuania's Social Democratic Party won its first parliamentary elections in 12 years as voters turned to the opposition hoping it will close soaring economic disparities in the Baltic nation.

Iceland's prime minister, Bjarni Benediktsson, broke up his coalition government and called a snap election on the north Atlantic island for late November.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed to scrap regulations holding back growth at the International Investment Summit today in London, in a bid to soothe investor concerns after a rocky first 100 days in power.

Washington Dispatch

Over the weekend, yet another front opened in the 2024 election, this one involving medical records. Harris released a detailed report about her health and insinuated that Trump might have a reason for keeping such information private.

"One must question, are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable to lead America?" Harris said in North Carolina yesterday.

Trump often said that Joe Biden, the nation's oldest president, lacked the physical stamina and mental agility for another term in the Oval Office. But with the president out of the race, Trump, 78, has faced questions regarding his fitness.

After the statement by Harris' doctor on Saturday, the Trump campaign said the former president had released health updates from his personal doctor and from former White House physician Ronny Jackson, now a Texas congressman, after the first assassination attempt on Trump in July.

One person to watch today: After holding events away from battleground states, Trump will return to Pennsylvania to take part in a town hall.

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Chart of the Day

An influx of expatriates chasing high-paying jobs is boosting Dubai's nearly $115 billion economy; it's also exposing the limitations of the Gulf hub's infrastructure. The city is home to 3.8 million now, and that's expected to surge to 5.8 million by 2040. The glut of traders, lawyers and bankers willing to fork out premium prices is pushing up property values and rents, while intensifying competition for school admissions.

And Finally

Ecuadorians are suffering electricity blackouts stretching for 10 hours at a time that have punished their already frail economy. While Ecuador has abundant energy resources, from tropical sunshine to fast-flowing rivers cascading down steep Andean slopes, as well as bigger oil reserves than Mexico, it's suffering from chronic underinvestment and a string of poor policy choices. Resolving the crisis will be key to the reelection chances of 36-year-old President Daniel Noboa in February.

Soldiers in the Solanda neighborhood during a planned blackout in Quito on Sept. 19. Photographer: David Diaz Arcos/Bloomberg

Thanks to the 21 people who answered Friday's quiz and congratulations to Sammy Kibet for being the first to name Kenya as the country whose lawmakers voted to impeach the deputy president last week.

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