Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. When Tunisia's populist president took power five years ago, he beat two dozen opponents in the kind of free vote that made the country a rare democratic beacon in the Arab world. But as Kais Saied, 66, seeks reelection on Sunday, those familiar with the region's authoritarian regimes — where strongmen win landslides in votes designed solely to rubber-stamp their legitimacy — will see plenty of parallels. The ex-constitutional law professor faces two token challengers, one of whom was just jailed for forgery. Mass arrests have swept up the biggest opposition party. The press has been muzzled. Even mistakenly flying the wrong flag can land you in prison, as Saied drums up ultra-patriotic sentiment and warns of foreign conspiracies. A rally in support of Tunisian journalists on May 27. Photographer: Hasan Mrad/DeFodi Images News/Getty Images It's a stark illustration of how far the North African nation has turned back the clock since long-time autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was overthrown in 2011, igniting a wave of Arab uprisings from Egypt to Libya, Syria and Yemen. While others soon succumbed to war or new crackdowns, Tunisia skirted the worst. But squabbling by a new political elite, including moderate Islamists, deepened the economic malaise, opening the door for outsiders like Saied. By late 2021, he'd assumed sweeping powers, shuttering parliament and hobbling the judiciary. Protests were limited. Tunisians may not have liked his moves, but they liked his political opponents even less. The economy has kept stagnating, with the president spurning International Monetary Fund help and Tunisia muddling through, aided by a surprise boom in olive-oil exports and occasional funding from the likes of Saudi Arabia. One new friend is Italy's right-wing leader, Giorgia Meloni, who's shoring up Tunisia's government with financing to curb illicit migration across the Mediterranean. Crossings may have fallen, but as the overwhelmingly youthful population sees opportunities dwindle, Tunisia's new autocracy may be sitting on another timebomb. — Souhail Karam Demonstrators call for the release of arrested opposition figures in Tunis on May 12. Photographer: Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images |
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