Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Cleverly's calamity

Hi there, I'm Ailbhe Rea, a Bloomberg UK Associate Editor based in Westminster. "What a **** up!" was the cry from a room down the corridor

Hi there, I'm Ailbhe Rea, a Bloomberg UK Associate Editor based in Westminster. 

"What a **** up!" was the cry from a room down the corridor here in parliament just now, as it became clear that James Cleverly has spectacularly bungled his bid to be Conservative leader, failing to make the final two having been comfortably in the lead only yesterday. 

The scores on the doors today were:

Kemi Badenoch 42 votes
James Cleverly 37 votes
Robert Jenrick 41 votes

There were audible gasps as those numbers were read out, confirming that the next leader will be either Badenoch or Jenrick after the result of party members' votes is announced on Nov. 2.

To emphasise the point, Cleverly was miles ahead yesterday:

Cleverly 39 votes
Jenrick 31 votes
Badenoch 30 votes
Tom Tugendhat 20 votes

All day, a smiling, puffed-up Cleverly was present on the parliamentary estate — after being spotted at Boris Johnson's book launch last night — and was widely expected to benefit from the bulk of Tugendhat's votes. Instead, it all comes to nothing, despite an impressive conference speech and a growing sense of momentum.

So what on earth happened? Cleverly's team are declining to say whether they tried to engineer the votes to keep their least preferred opponent off the ballot, or whether they played it straight and have been genuinely dumbstruck by the change in ballots cast.

Tory MPs are sometimes described as the most duplicitous electorate in the world, and today's result shows why. In past secret ballots, some are known to have promised — or publicly endorsed — one way and then voted another, and that looks like what has happened here. Rumors are already swirling that today's outcome was due to cunning tactics by one of the successful two candidates, who may have inflated Cleverly's vote yesterday with exactly this trick in mind. 

While Cleverly asks himself what went wrong, or who betrayed him, teams Badenoch and Jenrick are already gearing up for the final round. Whatever happens now, a candidate from the party's right will be the next Conservative leader. Much of the future direction of the Tories has already been decided by today's ballot. 

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