Crypto News: Bond traders recalibrate

Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to start your working week (and to all Sydneysiders — enjoy the public holiday).

Today's must-reads:
• Bond traders buckle up after US jobs surprise
• Arcadium told to refuse low-ball Rio Tinto offer
• New Zealand fast tracks infrastructure projects

Data showing the fastest US jobs growth in six months, a surprising drop in unemployment and higher wages sent Treasury yields surging on Friday and had investors furiously reversing course on bets for another half-point interest-rate cut from the Fed as soon as next month. In local markets this morning, New Zealand bonds are outperforming treasuries ahead of Wednesday's Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision.

It may soon be time to shed our paranoia about the US labor market and concede that the economy is looking fabulous, Jonathan Levin writes for Bloomberg Opinion.

Rio Tinto confirmed it has made an approach for a potential acquisition of Arcadium Lithium. The approach was non-binding and there was no certainty any transaction will proceed, Rio said in a statement Monday. Meanwhile, an Arcadium shareholder has written to the board of the US miner urging it not to accept a low takeover offer from Rio.

An Australian judge rejected an attempt by social media platform X to wipe a A$610,500 fine levied by a watchdog. On Friday, the court threw out X's petition and ordered Elon Musk's company to pay all proceedings. That ends a lawsuit that arose after Australia's eSafety commissioner fined the platform, saying it didn't adequately respond to queries about efforts to crack down on child-abuse content.

New Zealand's government will include 149 projects in a fast-track approvals bill — predominantly in housing, infrastructure, resources and agriculture — in a bid to revive a slowing economy. The legislation is expected to pass before the end of the year.

A day before it marks a year since the deadly Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, Israel is locked into a multi-front war with no clear end in sight. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is weighing how to respond to Iran, which launched almost 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state last week. Security forces in Israel and abroad are also on high alert for potential terror attacks from Iranian proxies on Monday's symbolic date.

A mosque-turned-shelter in the central Gaza Strip, heavily damaged in an Israeli strike during the night of Oct. 6. Photographer: BASHAR TALEB/AFP

The S&P 500's roughly 20% advance in 2024 that has added $8 trillion in market cap may get tested as earnings season kicks off. Companies are expected to report a 4.7% increase in third-quarter profit growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, down from a projection of 7.9% in July.

Milton intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, threatening to grow even stronger as it aims for Florida's Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area. The storm has the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage and heap more misery on a state and region still reeling from Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.

The world-beating rally in Chinese stocks is failing to convince many global fund managers and strategists. Invesco, JPMorgan Asset Management, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth, and Nomura are among those viewing the recent rebound with skepticism and waiting for Beijing to back up its stimulus pledges with real money. Some are also concerned many stocks are already reaching overvalued levels.

All times Sydney

• 11:00 a.m.: Melbourne Institute Inflation

Amateur investors are plunging into the complex world of derivatives-powered exchange-traded funds that can dangle huge payouts riding big-name stocks, among other goodies. Tens of thousands of people are congregating on forums to discuss the merits of the fast-growing product range, like options-powered bets on Nvidia, Tesla, and other Big Tech titans. Issuers say they're simply meeting incessant demand for smart investing styles that were once solely the province of the financial elite. But market professionals, along with regulators, are asking whether buyers truly know what they are getting.

Stay updated by saving our new email address

Our email address is changing, which means you'll be receiving this newsletter from noreply@news.bloomberg.com. Here's how to update your contacts to ensure you continue receiving it:

Gmail: Open an email from Bloomberg, click the three dots in the top right corner, select "Mark as important."
Outlook: Right-click on Bloomberg's email address and select "Add to Outlook Contacts."
Apple Mail: Open the email, click on Bloomberg's email address, and select "Add to Contacts" or "Add to VIPs."
Yahoo Mail: Open an email from Bloomberg, hover over the email address, click "Add to Contacts."