Sunday, October 13, 2024

Apple’s smart home strategy

Company needs a new next big thing.
by Mark Gurman

Apple is finally preparing to compete for the smart home market after falling behind Amazon and Google. Also: The Vision Pro team ponders its next steps; Apple Intelligence approaches; the next MacBook Pro shows up early in Russia; and two top executives are retiring.

Last week in Power On: Apple slowly moves away from its annual product release strategy.

The Starters

The Apple HomePod mini. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

For years, Apple Inc. has sold the go-to devices for our pockets, wrists, backpacks and desks. But it has struggled to achieve that kind of success in other key areas: the car, the face and the home.

Apple blew billions on a car project that it shut down earlier this year, and the company's Vision Pro hasn't yet proved that a face-worn technology can be a hit. Its home products, meanwhile, have had mixed results. While the HomePod smart speaker and Apple TV set-top box have their fans, both devices trail competitors' products.

But now the company is setting out to conquer the smart home with an aggressive new strategy: putting Apple screens and software throughout the house in a way that creates an end-to-end experience. 

Over the next two years, I expect home hardware to be a top priority for Apple. The push will include developing a new homeOS operating system and smart display, as well as a higher-end robotic tabletop device. 

The renewed effort follows years of mediocre performance in this category, with Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc.'s Google taking the lead. One reason Apple has struggled is its focus on making premium products that work in a closed ecosystem. That hasn't been an effective strategy in the smart home, where consumers want equipment that can work with a wide range of other products.

For Apple's next slate of home hardware to be successful, it has to support as many accessories as possible — and the company is preparing to do just that. It helped develop a smart home protocol called Matter that allows Amazon, Google and Apple devices to all play nicely together. 

That's one piece of the foundation. Another is artificial intelligence. The company's goal is to use its new Apple Intelligence platform to offer home automation on steroids, as well as precise control of applications, devices and media. A core piece of Apple Intelligence is a new App Intents system that allows the Siri digital assistant to manipulate features inside apps.

AI also will govern how the products work. The tabletop device will use AI to understand its surrounding environment so it can sense who is looking at the screen, what people are doing and who is speaking. That capability could make the device compelling — and it might actually be the first product built from the ground up for Apple Intelligence (a misleading claim that Apple makes about the iPhone 16). 

The third component of the smart home strategy is software. That includes the new homeOS, which will be built on the underpinnings of tvOS — the Apple TV set-top box operating system. The company also recently revamped its Home app.

To jump-start these efforts, the company is building a new Home Ecosystem team and moved some engineers from the shuttered car project to work on home products. 

It still won't be an easy task. Apple hasn't yet proven that it knows how to be successful in the category. Its first home product, the iPod Hi-Fi, was a $349 speaker designed to work smoothly with the Apple lineup. It didn't offer many novel features and was discontinued about 18 months after debuting in 2006.

The initial HomePod, launched in 2018, was pricey and didn't offer groundbreaking features either. It got the ax, though Apple found more success with a cheaper version (the 2020 $99 HomePod mini). Then there's the Apple TV set-top box, which has a loyal following but isn't far better than cheaper alternatives.

It's worth noting that Apple's smart home competitors haven't had many breakthroughs lately either. Amazon's initially strong momentum with its Echo speakers has waned. And some of its other hardware efforts, such as a rolling robot, haven't caught on.

That means Apple has an opening. One of the first big steps will be releasing a new smart display — something people can use to play TV+ streaming content, do FaceTime calls, surf the web, and access apps like Calendar and Notes. It would be an affordable iPad-like screen, and consumers could place multiple units around the house, like they might with a HomePod mini.

The tabletop device, which is expected to come later, would be on the pricier side — perhaps around $1,000 — and focus on home security monitoring, advanced videoconferencing, and media playback with high-quality audio. The screen would be positioned atop a swiveling robotic limb, helping it stand out from competitors' products.  

Apple needs a win here. Right now, nobody has truly mastered the smart home market. But at some point, someone will. If the right pieces fall into place, it could — and should — be Apple itself.

The Bench

The Vision Pro at an Apple retail store. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Apple's Vision Pro team readies its response to Meta. Executives within the Vision Products Group — the team behind the $3,500 Vison Pro headset — are racing to develop devices with greater appeal. The Vision Pro is too heavy, too expensive and too hot to the touch, and it seems destined to remain a niche product. Meta Platforms Inc., meanwhile, has had success with Ray-Ban smart glasses that are less ambitious but lighter and cheaper. That company also just unveiled a prototype for augmented reality spectacles that just might be the future of computing. 

As I've reported, the Vision Products Group is working on at least four new devices. I expect a lower-end Vision headset to arrive as early as next year, with a second-generation Vision Pro — sporting a faster chip — following in 2026. The lower-end model would cost about $2,000 and probably use an inferior processor and cheaper materials. It also would lack EyeSight, a gee-whiz feature that shows a user's eyes on the outside of the headset. With the lower price, Apple is expecting unit sales of the device to be at least double the level of the Vision Pro. But that's not saying much. 

Into 2027, the team is considering launching smart glasses on par with the Meta Ray-Bans, as well as AirPods with cameras. The idea is to salvage the billions of dollars spent on the Vision Pro's visual intelligence technology, which can scan the environment around a user and supply useful data. We'll get a taste of this with an upcoming visual intelligence feature on the iPhone 16, but the plan is to bring the Vision Pro's ability to understand its surroundings to more products.

The bigger problem for Apple right now is that it's not getting new technology out the door quickly enough. It's chasing a Meta product with something that may not be released for several years. And it's still playing catch-up in artificial intelligence

The world is not waiting around for Apple anymore. It's no longer the leader in several critical new technologies, and that's scary — especially when there are rivals innovating and inspiring a new generation of users. The company has a stable base of revenue, at nearly $400 billion a year, but Apple can't coast forever.

Apple touting new AI features on the iPhone in retail stores. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Apple Intelligence gets a tad closer. It continues to be surprising that the iPhone 16 went on sale roughly six weeks before its biggest selling point will be ready: Apple Intelligence. Worse, the initial rollout of that feature will be missing its best capabilities. The good news, though, is that it is approaching fast, with the company planning for an Oct. 28 release. Apple Intelligence will be part of iOS 18.1, which is now on its sixth developer beta version. From my testing, everything works as advertised and I like some of the new touches, including a dedicated AirDrop button in Control Center and sleep apnea notifications support.

The box for Apple's new entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro. Source: Wylsacom on YouTube

Apple's new MacBook Pro indeed shows up in Russia weeks before announcement. In 2010, a yet-to-be-announced iPhone 4 made its way to Gizmodo after being picked up at a bar and sold. But this might be even an even more surprising development: Scores of unannounced M4 MacBook Pros — ready for retail sale — got into the wrong hands overseas and appeared on a pair of Russian YouTube channels (1, 2). I can confirm that these are indeed Apple's upcoming M4 MacBook Pros. And given that Apple has shut off its sales to Russia, I believe these were stolen elsewhere in Europe before being sent to the country. 

How did this happen before the product was even announced? Well, Apple wants to be able to get devices into the hands of consumers as soon as possible after introduction. So it spends weeks filling up warehouses in many parts of the world ahead of time. There are also thousands of unannounced new iMacs and Mac minis out there as well (they just haven't popped up on YouTube). I expect the new Mac models to begin going on sale around Nov. 1. Apple should be unveiling them in the next few weeks, in line with plans I reported several months ago

Though the new MacBook Pro update isn't impressive outside of a much faster M4 chip, the fact that the product got in the hands of Apple outsiders is remarkable. The packaging has the same wallpaper as last year's M3 MacBook Pro — an odd and rare choice — but I am certain these machines are the real deal. The leaked units appear to represent the new base models, with 16 gigabytes of memory as well as 10 cores apiece for central processing and graphics. The specifications — as well as the internal model numbers for the device — all align with what I've been reporting for weeks. 

Roster Changes

Dan Riccio (right). Photographer: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Questions emerge about the future management of Vision Pro team after Dan Riccio's exit. As telegraphed earlier this year in Power On, Dan Riccio retired Friday after more than two decades at Apple. He served as Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering from 2012 to 2021, before switching to a narrower role overseeing the Vision Products Group and the development of the Vision Pro. With Riccio exiting, responsibility for that product now rests with his deputy, Mike Rockwell, and that executive's new boss, hardware chief John Ternus.

But there are already questions from people within the Vision Products Group as to what happens with the team if Ternus indeed gets tapped for the CEO role down the road — a move I expect. Some within the hardware organization believe that Eugene Kim, who led hardware development of the Apple Watch, could ultimately replace Ternus at that time. In the shorter term, there is concern about how long Rockwell will remain at Apple given his desire for a larger role and his sometimes-rocky relationship with Ternus. 

Workers arrive at Foxconn's factory in Vietnam. Photographer: Linh Pham/Bloomberg

Dan Rosckes, Apple's global vice president of procurement, also set to hit the exits. With Apple shipping hundreds of millions of devices each year, getting the right components and supplier agreements in place is fundamental to the company's operations. That responsibility falls on Apple's large procurement organization. Dan Rosckes has been at the forefront of that for many years and took over as Apple's sole head of procurement with the 2022 departure of Tony Blevins. With Rosckes now nearing retirement, deputy David Tom will be taking over. 

The Schedule

A customer buys a new iPhone 16. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Oct. 31 — Apple set to report earnings. The company will deliver results for its September quarter at the end of this month, giving investors and analysts a sense of how the iPhone 16 is doing so far. Wall Street is expecting revenue of about $94.3 billion in the period, in line with Apple's guidance during its previous earnings report. That represents a 5% increase from the year-earlier period. The quarter includes about a week or so of sales of the latest iPhones, Apple Watches and AirPods — so it's an important picture of how the new products are selling.

Post Game Q&A

(Answers to the below are shown in the subscriber-only version of this newsletter.)

Q: What is the holdup with the new CarPlay?
Q: Why is Apple abandoning the annual product release cycle?
Q: Will Apple ever ditch the Mac in favor of the iPad?

To get the full Power On experience, subscribe to Bloomberg.com.

Want to send in questions?
Email me, ask on the Power On Discord, or you can always send me a tweet or DM @markgurman.

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I'm on Signal at markgurman.01; Telegram at GurmanMark; or ProtonMail at markgurman@protonmail.com.

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