Sunday, October 20, 2024

Apple’s secret AI advantage

Plus, inside Apple's latest shake-ups.
by Mark Gurman

Apple's new iPad mini highlights the company's secret advantage in artificial intelligence. Also: Sonos weighs a headphone reboot after a sluggish start; Amazon rolls out a color Kindle; and Jony Ive-designed jackets arrive. On the management front, Apple's chief people officer and top recruiter depart, and the company names new hardware leaders.

Last week in Power On: Apple's new smart home strategy involves putting screens everywhere. 

The Starters

The iPad mini with Apple Intelligence. Source: Apple

When Apple Inc. announced the first iPad mini upgrade in three years this past week, it chose to recycle its marketing strategy for the iPhone 16 and go all-in on AI features.

The company's smallest iPad will have 8 gigabytes of memory and the same processor — the A17 Pro — as the iPhone 15 Pro line from last year. That gives it enough horsepower to support the new Apple Intelligence platform. And, considering that the new model doesn't have other major new changes, it's no surprise that Apple is heavily touting the AI capabilities.

And yet, Apple Intelligence won't actually launch until about five days after the new iPad hits stores on Oct. 23. That means early buyers will need to install the software upgrade at home, potentially irking some customers. But given how easy Apple operating system updates are these days, it's not a big deal. 

The bigger obstacle is that the first Apple Intelligence features are underwhelming — with the more impressive capabilities coming later. In the iPad mini marketing on Apple's website, the company spotlights four features; three of them aren't launching until between December and March.

At the start, the signature feature will be notification summaries. These can be quite helpful — if they're accurate — but they lack the wow factor of competitors' offerings. Compared with the latest fare from Google, OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc., Apple's AI is still far behind.

Even some internal studies at Apple reflect this, I'm told. The research found that OpenAI's ChatGPT was 25% more accurate than Apple's Siri, and able to answer 30% more questions. In fact, some at Apple believe that its generative AI technology — at least, so far — is more than two years behind the industry leaders.

That said, it's hard to count Apple out. It has a cherished brand, nearly limitless resources, and a history of coming from behind and being successful (see Apple Maps). At some point, Apple will either develop, hire or acquire its way into the top tier of AI companies.

Apple has another advantage as it tries to catch up: the ability to roll out features to a massive base of devices. As showcased with the iPad mini, Apple can quickly equip its current products with the technology needed to run new software. We'll see this again soon with the M4 Mac rollout, which will further speed up AI tasks.

When Apple announced its AI features in June, the software was only compatible with two iPhone models and a couple of iPads, as well as Macs with its in-house silicon. Now, the four newest iPhones, almost every iPad and all the Macs can support it. By 2026, nearly every Apple device with a screen will run it: The iPhone SE will gain the features in March, and the entry-level iPad will probably get updated later in the year.

The Apple Watch doesn't currently support the AI platform, but the notification summaries can be delivered to the device from a paired iPhone. And the company is working on bringing the features to the Vision Pro headset. Apple's next wave of home devices, meanwhile, will also be built around AI capabilities.

When Apple becomes a true player in AI, Google and Samsung Electronics Co. will be hard-pressed to roll out new features and upgrades at the same speed. They have more fragmented operating systems, and their hardware, software and services aren't as tightly integrated.

Still, Apple hasn't yet shown it can achieve real competence in AI. Today, there's little reason to buy products just to get Apple Intelligence. If consumers are sold on that idea by Apple's marketing, they may be surprised to find few meaningful AI tools when they start using their new devices.

But that raises a broader question: How much do customers actually care about AI? For now, the camera advancements on a new iPhone are a bigger draw. Apple is well aware of this, which is why recent upgrades have centered on photo and video capabilities, including the terrific Camera Control button this year.

Apple has done a good job at convincing one group that it's winning at artificial intelligence: investors. The stock is trading at a record high, giving Apple a market valuation of $3.6 trillion, due in large part to AI excitement. 

Some analysts have even made dubious claims that Apple Intelligence is already creating an "AI consumer revolution" that will "spark a massive holiday season." But Apple's AI glory is still years away. If the new iPhone is a hit this year, it will probably be because of everything but AI.

The Bench

Sonos Ace headphones. Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

Sonos struggles to sell Ace headphones as it considers a higher-end model. Sonos is trying to crawl out of the massive hole it created when the audio company prematurely launched a revamped app. It had hoped to usher in a new generation of products with a fresh software interface, but the glitchy app plunged the company into a crisis.

This past week, Sonos attempted to bounce back by rolling out a pair of new products: the Arc Ultra and a new Sub subwoofer. Those devices were on the Sonos road map that I published last year (and most of the other items on the list should still be coming, though I recently reported on delays to a set-top box product).

But Sonos is still struggling with its high-profile attempt to crack the headphone market. I'm told that the company only sold about 200,000 units of the new Ace headphones through September. I previously reported that Sonos slashed its annual manufacturing plans from as much as 1 million units to about 10% of that.

The flawed app has contributed to the problems. One of the main reasons for the software overhaul was to create a new system to control the $450 Ace headphones, and it hasn't gone smoothly. Still, Sonos is working on a plan to potentially turn around its fortunes: a higher-end model.

The idea is knock $50 off the price of the current model, and then sell the more upscale version at $450. That effort — codenamed Roundhouse — remains in early stages, and the company hasn't decided whether to move forward. Some Sonos employees are skeptical that the move would succeed, but the discussions show that the company realizes it has a problem. The Ace hasn't been the ace in the hole (sorry) that Sonos thought it would be.

New LoveFrom-Moncler jackets. Source: Andre Elijah

New Moncler jackets designed by Jony Ive begin arriving. Former Apple design head Jony Ive and his new firm LoveFrom recently launched a collaboration with high-end jacket maker Moncler, and we're now getting a look at the results.

Andre Elijah, a Power On reader who designs video games, sent in photos and first impressions of the lineup. In keeping with Moncler's luxury brand, the clothes aren't cheap, but Elijah says the attention to detail, material quality and unique design made them worthwhile to him.

The new parka starts at $2,440, while a down jacket is priced at $3,115. There's also a poncho that costs just over $2,000. The unique feature here is how the pieces can interconnect using a new magnetic button system designed by Ive. It's reminiscent of the approach to magnets that Ive brought to Apple products before departing. Elijah hopes the new button system makes its way to other Moncler products and likes the unique colors, including orange and ivory.

Since leaving Apple in 2019, Ive has also been working on an electric Ferrari and has a design agreement with Airbnb Inc. His former design group, meanwhile, looks very different now: Nearly all of the Apple designers who reported to him have either retired or taken other jobs — with many heading over to LoveFrom. The exodus has included Ive's replacement at Apple, Evans Hankey, as well as Tang Tan, the former head of product design for the iPhone within the hardware engineering group.

Amazon's new Kindles. Source: Amazon

Amazon rolls out color Kindle, but without a splashy product event. By this time of year, Amazon.com Inc. would have typically held a wide-ranging launch event to announce several new devices and initiatives. Last year, the company unveiled its (still unreleased) next-generation Alexa with generative AI. In 2021, it revealed its Astro home robot. But the company has a new product chief, Panos Panay, and times appear to be changing.

Panay, who came from Microsoft Corp., is likely trying to put the Amazon device unit on a new course — one that probably doesn't involve rolling out devices that are killed off after a couple years. Until he's able to revamp the organization, Amazon is slowly rolling out upgrades to its core products. It recently added some software and AI features to its Ring cameras, and now the company is updating its original device category: the Kindle. 

This past week, Amazon launched the Kindle Colorsoft, a $280 model that brings a color screen to the device for first time. This ability will enliven book covers and let people make highlights on text and images. There's also a new $160 Paperwhite with a faster chip and a refresh to the Kindle's $110 entry-level version. The $400 Kindle Scribe, a model with note-taking capabilities, is getting an update as well. And Amazon enhanced its Kindle aimed at kids. 

While these are nice upgrades, the e-reader market has been hurt by cheaper tablets — including Amazon's own Fire line — and the move to larger phones like the iPhone 16 Pro Max. With screen sizes of phones approaching 7 inches, there's little reason to carry two devices these days.

More broadly, Amazon's devices unit has been stuck in a rut. The Astro has been a dud, the company still hasn't shipped its highly anticipated Ring drone camera, and Meta has jumped out ahead in smart glasses. On top of that, the Alexa-based Echo speakers — its flagship products for some time — have been losing momentum. Panay has work to do.

Roster Changes

Apple's Carol Surface. Source: David Kern/Medtronic

Inside Apple's HR crisis. When Apple hires outsiders for top executive roles, they often don't last long. We have a fresh example in the form of Chief People Officer Carol Surface, who joined Apple from Medtronic Plc and is now out after less than two years. Unsurprisingly, she will be replaced by three-decade veteran Deirdre O'Brien, who used to hold the top human-resources role alongside her duties overseeing Apple's retail empire.

Here is the announcement from Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook in full:

Team,

The People team is incredibly important to Apple and their work is instrumental in supporting you, in maintaining our unique culture, and in enabling us all to do our very best work each and every day.

I am writing today to let you know that Carol Surface, who has been leading the People team, will be leaving Apple. I want to thank Carol for her expertise and contributions across the people space during her time at Apple.

Deirdre O'Brien, who is a seasoned leader with deep experience in the role, will lead the People team moving forward following a transition with Carol.

Deirdre will bring her characteristic focus and care to the role. She will continue to lead our outstanding retail team and I couldn't be more confident in her commitment and passion for this very important work.

I want to share my gratitude for the People team for all that they do. Their continued energy and dedication help make Apple the special place that it is.

Tim

Surface isn't the only one leaving this department, known as the People team. Sjoerd Gehring, Apple's vice president of talent management, recruiting and immigration, is heading to hedge fund Citadel to be its chief people officer. 

Employees say that the HR group has been tumultuous under Surface's tenure, and other high-ranking executives — as well as rank-and-file employees — have hit the exits. 

Some employees left in part because they no longer wanted to work with Surface, as I reported last week. That list includes Gehring himself. Around May, the People team also started trying to push out employees, including ones on the business partner and inclusion and diversity teams. From the beginning, the team's employees were skeptical of Surface's management style, though they did appreciate her extensive HR background, I'm told.

I'm told that Surface made some strides in putting her stamp on the organization, but was unable to overcome pushback from more senior leaders. The department also drew criticism for a rocky switch to Workday Inc.'s HR software, but that effort was underway prior to Surface taking over. The group also had to contend with a campaign by several US retail stores to unionize. Some employees have complained about the company pushing back on those labor organizing efforts.

Earlier this year, Surface swapped out her top deputy in charge of diversity, replacing a former Intel Corp. executive with Bank of America Corp.'s Cynthia Bowman. There's also been the stress of job cuts at Apple. In a rare sequence of events, the company had to lay off or relocate employees in at least four areas: a shuttered AI team in San Diego, the company's failed self-driving car project, a canceled effort to develop next-generation device displays and its digital services division. The HR team, of course, oversaw those personnel changes.

When Apple hired Surface, the move allowed O'Brien to offload HR responsibilities and focus on retail. The company never intended O'Brien to have both those duties permanently, Cook said at the time. But now I believe Apple has given up on trying to bring in an outsider for the HR role, and O'Brien will probably keep that job until she retires. The big question is what happens after she steps away, given the lack of apparent successors for both HR and, more importantly, retail.

Many of the senior outside hires by Cook have been unsuccessful. Apple's prior communications chief, Stella Low, lasted eight months. And the company's biggest-ever outside hire — Burberry veteran Angela Ahrendts — was gone after less than five years. By some accounts, she was already on the outs after only a couple years. More than a decade ago, John Browett didn't even make it to a single holiday season as retail chief.

There are a few exceptions: Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri, General Counsel Kate Adams and key executive Lisa Jackson are all beloved. But that took time. Maestri originally came in as corporate controller, reporting to former CFO Peter Oppenheimer (Maestri is now handing the baton to his own lieutenant). Jackson, meanwhile, worked her way up from being environment chief to becoming one of Cook's closest advisers on a variety of issues, including how it deals with the White House and governments globally. Adams, perhaps uniquely, appeared to be a good fit from the very start.

The Apple Park campus. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

Apple's John Ternus reshapes the hardware engineering group. Almost every October, right around the time that employee shares vest, Apple promotes a handful of executives to the vice president level. That's the highest title at the company below the group of senior vice presidents that report directly to Cook. With the departures of hardware engineering executive Dan Riccio, procurement chief Dan Rosckes, App Store head Matt Fischer, and HR leaders Surface and Gehring, Apple certainly has room on its VP roster, which it likes to cap at about 100. 

This month, hardware engineering head John Ternus is promoting three of his deputies to the vice president level: Richard Dinh, Dave Pakula and Donny Nordhues. Dinh becomes the VP of product design for the iPhone and related programs; Pakula is now the VP of product design for the iPad, Apple Watch, audio products, input devices, soft goods and the company's China-based Mac teams; and Nordhues becomes the VP of program management for the hardware engineering organization. 

In a memo to Apple's engineering group, Ternus said that Dinh is in charge of the future iPhone road map and called the company's upcoming models the "most ambitious in the product's history." He said that Dinh "continues to help drive an exciting future for this iconic product line." He said that Nordhues "spearheaded cross-functional initiatives to drive significant cost-saving opportunities without impacting product ambition" and that Pakula has been "instrumental" to Apple's future road map.

All three men were previously promoted to larger roles over the past year, part of a shake-up in the hardware engineering group that included the departure of at least three of Ternus' prior top deputies. The department has had a bit of a revolving door, with Ternus needing to quickly refill ranks from within. Earlier this month, Ternus got a promotion of sorts of his own, when he took over the Vision Products Group and its more than 2,000 staffers.

The elevation of Pakula is particularly interesting since it might hint at some larger changes in the hardware engineering organization down the road. The move means that Pakula's duties now overlap with those of Kate Bergeron, long known as Ternus' top deputy. That could suggest that Apple is engaged in succession planning for Bergeron, one of its highest-profile and more important executives, or preparing her for a different role.

The Schedule

Apple iPhones at the company's Fifth Avenue store in New York. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

Oct. 31 — Apple set to report earnings. The company will deliver results for its September quarter at the end of this month, giving investors and analysts a sense of how the iPhone 16 is doing so far. Wall Street is expecting revenue of about $94.2 billion in the period, in line with Apple's guidance during its previous earnings report. That represents a 5% increase from the year-earlier period. The quarter includes about a week or so of sales of the latest iPhones, Apple Watches and AirPods — so it's an important picture of how the new products are selling.

Post Game Q&A

(Answers to the below are shown in the subscriber-only version of this newsletter.)

Q: Are new Macs still coming despite not being announced at the same time as the latest iPad mini?
Q: What changes do you expect in the upcoming iPad Air?
Q: If you have an M1 Mac, does it make sense to upgrade to an M4 Mac?

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